Chiefs at Chargers: The Opening Line


Good morning everybody. Judging by the chatter on 610 AM radio this morning, most people want to talk about yesterday's game/offer someone as a human sacrifice, but I am here to remind you that we have a big AFC West matchup in six days.

The Chiefs head to San Diego Sunday for a key early season game for both teams. Clearly the Chiefs have been grotesque, but the Chargers have yet to find their groove either. Let's take a look at how Las Vegas sees this game in our weekly installment of The Opening Line.

Last night, in Las Vegas, the matchup with the Bolts opened with them as a 13 point favorite and the total was at 44. Already the line is up to 14.5 in most casinos and online offshore it is 15 at most sites. The total has crept up to 44.5 as well.

At first glance, feeling how we all feel, looks like easy money for San Diego backers. In no way am I justifying the performance yesterday, but it's important to remember that midway through the second quarter we still were very much in the game. It took a fantastically horrendous series of events to blow the roof of the game and enable the easy Detroit cover. Who knows how it will go Sunday, but as the number gets higher, the less value I feel a a play on San Diego has.

To me the real early value lies in the total. I think this game will go over 44.5 but I am not going to bet it until I see injury reports and any moves made by both teams this week. We are having difficulty stopping the passing game and San Diego should be able to get into the 30s. The big question is, can we score at least 10 or more?

I already feel like I am talking myself into a San Diego wager, but instead of thinking about that, let's take a look at some recent trends between the two teams:

  • KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last 12 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.
  • SAN DIEGO is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 September games.
  • KANSAS CITY is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 divisional games.
  • KANSAS CITY is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games as a road underdog of 14.5+ points.
  • KANSAS CITY is 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games coming off of 2 straight losses.
  • SAN DIEGO is 0-2 ATS in their last 2 games as a home favorite of 14.5+ points

These trends would lead one to believe that KC has an advantage (despite the small sample in a few of them), but unlike most weeks with these trends we really have no idea how they apply to whatever team will be on the field for us on Sunday. Nonetheless, let's hope these trends continue (except the one where we aren't good in division games).

Well, there you have it for this week's edition of The Opening Line. Have a great day and let's move forward to San Diego.

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