Carolina Panthers

Why they won’t: The Panthers showed a lot in Week 1, and Cam Newton could have an erratic season, but he also has the chance to steal some wins for Carolina. As well, if the defense can stay healthy, they can really slow some teams down.

Why they will: The year of starting a rookie quarterback often comes with plenty of reason for optimism, but not a lot of wins. They also can’t afford further attrition. They’ve lost key talent on the interior of the defensive line, and Jon Beason is done for the year.

Could they pass on Luck? Yes. If Newton continues to grow, it might be better to move the pick for a bounty of picks or talent. Or you draft Luck and open up the market for bidding on your young quarterbacks.

Seattle Seahawks

Why they won’t: The Seahawks have a growing offensive line and a lot of talent on defense, and no team in football seems to have quite the home-field edge Seattle does. They win at least four home games even in years when the team isn’t competitive elsewhere.

Why they will: The quarterback situation looks terrible, and I think the Seahawks erred in not doing more there. The team looks ready to be really competitive if they can get something out of Tarvaris Jackson. But it’s no given.

Could they pass on Luck? No way.

Indianapolis Colts

Why they won’t: We can’t be certain that Peyton Manning is out for the season, and even if he is, the team should improve as the talent already on the roster gets more in sync with Kerry Collins. Remember, the Colts are also breaking in a pair of rookie offensive linemen, so it figured to be a slow start on offense based on their standards, even with Manning.

Why they will: The absence of Manning could be as devastating as we all feared it might be, and the Colts might never recover. Moreover, if Peyton is healthy by, say, Week 10, what’s the use of bringing him back to a 3-7 team?

Could they pass on Luck? Depends on Manning. He’s signed for four more years beyond this one, and perhaps they trade the pick to get some high-level talent or picks they’ve missed on after years of winning.

Denver Broncos

Why they won’t: There’s actually a lot of talent in Denver. The defense looks like it could cause a lot of problems for opposing passers with the addition of Von Miller and a healthy Elvis Dumervil. The offense can score points if the run game becomes consistent.

Why they will: Teams can run on Denver, and it limits the pass-rush talent it has. The quarterback situation already is becoming circus-like, with the calls for Tebow.

Could they pass on Luck? No way. Welcoming the best QB draft prospect since John Elway would purge the organization of any controversies.

Kansas City Chiefs

Why they won’t: There’s actually a lot of young talent here, and I like the way Scott Pioli has built the team, or at least re-stocked the roster. They ran the ball very well last year, and they should be tough at home.

Why they will: Key injuries have hit. Eric Berry is a huge loss, and Tony Moeaki was one exciting target in a passing game that lacks options. Rookie Jonathan Baldwin is talented but has had a bad start, and there are questions about the ceiling of Matt Cassel. They were great in 2010, but this team could fall back to earth.

Could they pass on Luck? No. They have some money committed to Cassel, but they can’t possibly pass on Luck.

Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978 and started contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his home page. He can also be found on Twitter here.