Chiefs Vs. Lions: The Opening Line

Good morning everyone. I think it is safe to say we are all still a little shell-shocked from yesterday's game, but as the team must do, we also must move on to our Week 2 opponent. Up next for the Chiefs are the Detroit Lions, who were white-hot in the preseason and were victorious in their opening game 28-21 on the road against Tampa Bay.

Since the people in Vegas have a better read on things than most of us (hence the Buffalo line bottoming out at 3.5 some places) let's take our first look at next week's contest.

Before the season, you could wager on this game as a "future" bet and you would have had the line at Detroit -4. Thanks to yesterday's massacre, the line opened in Las Vegas last night at Detroit -7 and the total was posted at 44.  It didn't take long for people to hop on the Detroit side as the line quickly moved to 7.5 and appears at 8 in some places.

 

I went 2-4 yesterday, so it is not as though I am infallible, but at first glance (all things being equal) I would be on Detroit at that number too, based on the dreadful Chiefs performance, the uncertainty surrounding Eric Berry, and the general fire and emotion that the Lions played with yesterday, whereas we played with none. Toss in the home opener and a truly excited and hungry fan base, it is not a recipe for our success.

Let's take a look at some trends surrounding this one, but I will explain why these may mean less this week (Recall last week's trends pointed to Buffalo and the under which would have put you at 1-1 yesterday):

  • KANSAS CITY is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the NFC
  • KANSAS CITY is 1-13 straight up in their last 14 road games as an underdog of 7.5 to10.5 points
  • DETROIT is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10.5 points
  • DETROIT is 17-32 over the last 18 years as a favorite of greater than 3.5 points.
  • DETROIT is 14-3 ATS since the start of last season

First off, there is no lean to one side on these trends. Second, the Lions are more reflective of the last trend than any other. This is a team clearly on the rise and who knows which way KC is truly trending. I cannot access the trends for the total on this game at this time but I will post an update at the bottom of this article later on. As I stated though, I think the value is with the Lions and I expect the line to get to about 8/8.5 by the end of the week.

As far as the rest of the games for Week 2, here's a look at the matchups:

New Orleans (6.5) over Chicago, Jets (-10) over Jacksonville, Buffalo (-3.5) over Oakland, Washington (-4.5) over Arizona, Baltimore (5.5) at Tennessee, Pittsburgh (-14.5) over Seattle, Green Bay (-10.5) at Carolina, Minnesota (-3) over Tampa Bay, Cleveland (-2.5) at Indianapolis, Dallas (-2.5) at San Francisco, Houston (-3) at Miami, New England (-6.5) over San Diego, Denver (-6) over Cincinnati, Philly (-2.5) at Atlanta, and the Giants (-6.5) over St. Louis.

Well, on this somber morning after, there you have The Opening Line. Have a great start to your week and I will see you tomorrow for the Media Power Rankings.

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