Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Update: Draft Edition (Part 2)

by Steve_in_RI on Aug 24, 2011 3:56 PM CDT

From the FanPosts. Don't worry. We won't overload you with Fantasy Football posts. -Chris

As mentioned on Monday, during the season, along with other topics I hope to cover, I will be giving you fantasy football analysis for our Kansas City Chiefs position players as well as some fantasy tidbits to help your team gain a slight edge. I come to you with vast experience in several types of leagues (as a victor, not just a participant), and the fantasy articles will mainly be geared to the player who does not have the time to subscribe to a fancy site, buy a (useless) magazine, or set up an Excel chart for their draft.

In part 1, we analyzed at the Chiefs at the QB, RB, and WR positions and in part 2 today we will look at the Chiefs at TE, K, Team Defense, IDP, and I will provide some notes on guys to stay away from and some players that could pay dividends for you down the road..

Let's take another look (And for those not interested in the billion-dollar industry of fantasy football, I do apologize in advance):

Having already dissected the QB, RB, and WR positions, we will move on to the Tight Ends first today.

Tight Ends (once again, the number in parentheses is what I would advise you to stay close to in Auction Leagues-$100 max)

Tony Moeaki ($10 and below): In auction leagues, Moeaki is currently going for, on average, $1. If you can get him at that price, you are playing with fools. I would go as high as $10 on him. Besides Charles, the biggest bang for your buck on the Chiefs roster fantasy-wise is Moeaki. He is getting drafted in the 15th round on average, but we here at AP know what the so-called experts don't: that Moeaki is the real deal and is a favorite target of Matt Cassel. Yes, guys like Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley and others are also very good tight ends, but if you can beef up at other positions while the TE onslaught comes in your draft, you can sneak out of there with a potentially great fantasy TE later on. I am very high on Moeaki even though the guys at the big sites have him ranked in the lower third of tight ends. Pull the trigger on this one for sure if you can.

Fun Fact: Leonard Pope not only saves lives, he is the number 51 ranked TE by my rankings. That means unless you are in a 45 team league, you probably want to pass on him.

Kicker

Ryan Succop: ($1) I, along with many, advocate you don't even think about getting a kicker until the final rounds. If you only need one on your roster, then select only one. Yes, guys like Sebastian Janikowski can blast it, and in leagues with bonus points for long field goals he may be worth a look. But year after year, the top 20 kickers are not seperated by more than about 30-40 points. Divide that by 13 guaranteed weeks and we are talking 2-3 point differences per week in kickers. Succop is reliable and has the leg for long distance. He more than likely will be available late in your draft and certainly would not hurt your team. I hate to sound nonchalant about this position, but rarely does the week come down to your kicker. With that said though, I am very partial to the teams that play indoors when selecting a kicker. They are guaranteed 8 games indoors and in some cases even more (Matt Bryant of the Falcons will be kicking indoors in 12 of their 16 games this year) in a climate-controlled environment. Before you go jump and grab Succop, check and see if any of those domed kickers are available.

Fun Fact: I have nothing. If you wish to enter a fun fact for kickers in the comment section, go for it. Succop would be a top 3 kicker in the NFL if he played in a dome. That's my fun opinion.

Team Defense

Kansas City Chiefs: ($1)Team defense is another crapshoot come draft day. This department often defies the odds. How else could Oakland be classified as a good fantasy defense last season? See what I mean? Craziness. With that said, if your league values team defense and rewards shutouts or gives good amounts of points for giving up very few points, then I would try to snatch one of the better defenses that are out there. Fantasy-wise, that would translate into the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, and Green Bay Packers. These teams figure to have the best points against average this season, with some other quality defense like the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles close behind. If your league does NOT reward points given up, then it puts the Chiefs on an even keel with everyone else. You can select them with confidence because we know they WILL get a good amount of sacks, they WILL play well in the secondary, and they do have better than average potential for the pick 6. Otherwise, trying to guess who will run back interceptions the most is a game I don't wish to play. Give each team a look, but don't be afraid to pull the trigger on the Chiefs Defense.

Fun Fact: I draft the Chiefs Defense every year in leagues that do not reward shutouts and they are always a decent option, with the exception of a couple seasons ago when nobody could get to the QB. The Chiefs D is worth a pick.

IDP (Individual Defensive Player)

Some leagues now include an IDP, that can score points individually (as the name suggests) for takles, sacks, interceptions, and TDs. I am not going to analyze every defensive player, rather I will rank in order who I think will be the most productive IDPs on the Chiefs this season, based on past performance and projected stats for this season.

1. Derrick Johnson

2. Eric Berry

3. Tamba Hali

4. Glenn Dorsey

5. Brandon Flowers

With that said, the Chiefs do not have a strong corps of IDP fantasy-wise. If you only have to draft one player, I'd steer clear of them all to be honest and try to get yourself a Patrick Willis or a Jerod Mayo. Guys like that will be the leaders in IDP points this season.

Well that's the Chiefs, but let's take a quick second to look at some guys who you should steer clear of and some you should grab from other teams:

Stay Away!- Guys I am projecting to have below average seasons

QB- Donovan McNabb, Tarvaris Jackson, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford (brutal schedule against pass defenses)

RB- Beanie Wells, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart

WR- Percy Harvin, Johnny Knox, Michael Crabtree

TE- Benjamin Watson, Jermaine Gresham, Kevin Boss

Welcome Aboard! - guys beyond the obvious (Brady, etc.) who could be value picks in your draft

QB- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy, John Beck, Tony Romo (I am projecting a huge season for Romo)

RB- Danny Woodhead, Knowshon Moreno (yuck), Roy Helu (great last round pick), Shonn Greene

WR- Mike Wallace, Danny Amendola, Kenny Britt

TE- Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Greg Olsen

Well, there you have my draft edition of the Kansas City Chiefs, with some fun sprinkled in as well. I hope this benefits some of you out there, and for the last group of players feel free to ask questions, make comments, fake-throw medicine balls at me, etc.

Thanks for reading, have a great draft, and go Chiefs

@deemo15

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Comments

one disagreement...

Beanie Wells could be the sleeper of the year in this year’s fantasy pool. If he stays healthy, he’s poised for a great season with Ryan Williams down for the year. Surely worth a mid to late round pick.

Burp

by Randy5225 on Aug 24, 2011 4:58 PM CDT reply actions

You could very well be right..

I went with projections that included a possible lack of TD opportunities, a team that will likely be trailing in many of their games, as well as the 2nd toughest schedule for a running back to face in weeks 1-13 this season. Would I ever say he sucked? No way, but I saw him as trending downward. Would it be the first time I’ve been wrong? Negative. If you drafted him, let it be known I’m rooting for ya!

by Steve_in_RI on Aug 24, 2011 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Drafted him as insurance at RB

Hoping the madden curse doesn’t eat Hillis. But if he does well he could end up as my flex starter. But as a late round pick, I see it as a “nothing to lose” situation.

Burp

by Randy5225 on Aug 25, 2011 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions

Well as a 4 of 7 winner in Fantasy last year, (2 second place winners. You have some screwed-up predictions.

I took both D. Johnson and B. Flowers on the “D” side, also I have questions of McCluster and Breaston, which are interchangeable. As for the Defense I’ve got Pittsburg, but have a need at their bye-week.

by gregorychief on Aug 24, 2011 4:59 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks for the feedback!

Depending on how your league scores the IDP points, you may have gotten a bargain. Consider my projections the equivalent of sabermetrics from baseball. I go with numbers and the numbers say DJ is about a hundred points better than Flowers, and DJ isn’t even in the top 20 for LBs. Had you read the intro to part one carefully, this ultimately was designed for the newer player. As a contributor, I am more than happy to hear all points of view, without calling them screwed up.

by Steve_in_RI on Aug 24, 2011 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Really enjoyed reading both articles

Great job, Steve. I have played fantasy for years but don’t have the time to invest in research this year. Your articles definitely bring up good points to keep in mind for me on draft day. I have a question for you—which positions do you see as having the greatest difference in top level talent versus middle-of-the-pack talent? I usually go heavy on RBs and WRs and let the rest of my team fill out as it may. I usually draft a TE as one of the last spots along with K and D/ST.

Thanks.

I believe in the Chiefs' Way. Someday, we will set the standard for how to be a championship team!

by Face Painter on Aug 24, 2011 7:52 PM CDT reply actions

Hey Face Painter

Thanks a lot for the kind words. I’ll answer your question at face value, but I do think everything depends on the scoring system and lineup requirements. I am gonna throw out some percentages to take a look at the drop off. In a regular performance league, with no PPR:

The difference between player ranked 1 and 20 (by my projected points)

1. QB- 133 points
2. RB- 89 points
3. TE- 64 points
4. WR- 58 points

With a PPR league the order is the same, but the gap is closed a bit from QB to WR

So while I employ a similar strategy to yours when I draft (RB/WR heavy), the need to swipe a QB this year might come earlier, especially if there is a sudden run on QBs. You can continue to use your style in my opinion with TE as well, as middle of the pack TEs really aren’t scoring that much less on average. One guy I have been telling anyone I can to pick up is Tony Romo. I think he is going to have a huge huge season and you will be able to get him (unless you have a Cowboy fan in there) after you get your top backs and receivers. Just don’t wait too long.

Hope this helps. Fire away if you want to talk more about it.

Steve

by Steve_in_RI on Aug 24, 2011 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Hah!

Even worse than having 1 Cowboys fan in the mix—we’ve got 2! I wouldn’t be surprised at all if one of the knuckleheads selects Romo with his first pick!

Thanks for the advice. Yeah, it’s a regular scoring league: QB, 2WR, 2RB, TE, K, D/ST, IDP, 6 Bench spots. I’ve got the 9th pick out of 10. My dilemma is that, if I pick up 2 RB first, a top-tier QB may not be available on the way back in the 3rd round. That’s why I was prepared to go with a Josh Freeman/Eli Manning type guy. Do you think Romo warrants an early 2nd round pick or do you think (given that there are 2 Cowboys fans) he’ll be around in the 3rd (29th pick)? I normally use my 4th or 5th pick on a QB—depending on if a quality back or receiver has slipped through the cracks.

Another question—do you have a site that you use the most for fantasy projections? I heard Football Guys is good so I grabbed some of their rankings and a mock draft. Also, do you know where I can find each team’s strength of schedule?

Thanks so much for your help!

I believe in the Chiefs' Way. Someday, we will set the standard for how to be a championship team!

by Face Painter on Aug 24, 2011 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Face Painter

click on myu profile and send me an email and I will discuss some sites I use. On here I’m going to stay true to AP and the sbnation.com family of sites. Thanks!

by Steve_in_RI on Aug 25, 2011 10:49 AM CDT reply actions