From the FanPosts. I've got an update on AP Fantasy Football coming. -Chris
During the season, along with other topics I hope to cover, I will be giving you fantasy football analysis for our Kansas City Chiefs position players as well as some fantasy tidbits to help your team gain a slight edge. I come to you with vast experience in several types of leagues (as a victor, not just a participant), and the fantasy articles will mainly be geared to the player who does not have the time to subscribe to a fancy site, buy a (useless) magazine, or set up an Excel chart for their draft.
Normally I will have a section devoted to just Chiefs and one with advice on players from other teams, but since it's draft time I will expand a bit. As with most advice of this nature, I am offering the disclaimer that all of this is purely for entertainment purposes, even though it is rooted in hours of painstaking research.
In part 1, we will look at the Chiefs at the QB, RB, and WR positions and in part 2 we will look at the Chiefs at TE, K, Team Defense, IDP, and some notes on some guys to stay away from and some players to surprise your fellow league mates with.
Let's take a look.
Chiefs Offensive Players: (Dollar Value in parentheses in value in auction leagues I would not go over by too much- $100 cap)
Matt Cassel: ($6) Coming off his Pro Bowl season, it might have been thought that Cassel would get a bump in prestige in the fantasy world. Unfortunately that is not so. His average rank among QB's hovers around 15th and his average draft position (through an average of several fantasy sites that I subscribe to and will be the basis for my numbers) is in the early 11th round. Thus if you are in a traditional 10 or 12 person league, the numbers say Cassel is not a #1 guy for your team no matter how much you love him. If you are in a true performance based league or even a TD based one, Cassel is a solid backup for your team. If by chance you are in a league that gives points for QB completions, Cassel may be a good option to share the #1 duties with another QB of similar talent.
*Fun fact: For the fantasy regular season (weeks 1-13), Cassel has the 7th toughest schedule for QB's (generated from how teams every QB will face surrendered points to QB's last year). Easiest? Chad Henne. Toughest? Donovan McNabb.
Jamaal Charles: ($34) I obviously shouldn't have to convince many Chiefs fans of his value. He is currently entrenched as a Top 5 fantasy back. What I will tell you is (before you take him with that #1 pick) is that statistically he is most valuable in leagues that do NOT utilize PPR (points per reception). In all other leagues he is a safe top 5 pick, but moves into about the top 2 or 3 in strictly performance based, non reception leagues. Know your scoring system and choose accordingly. His regular season opponents are considered average against the run and he should have little trouble putting up similar numbers if he remains healthy.
*Fun/Maybe Not So Fun Fact: While his fantasy regular season should be very good, during the playoffs (weeks 14-16) he faces what is considered that 4th toughest schedule for RB's. Something to consider long term during the season.
Thomas Jones/Le'Ron McClain: ($1) As of this minute, neither of these players merits a pick within the top 10 rounds of a 10 or 12 team draft. Jones is getting chosen in the 11th round on average of most drafts, while McClain is not getting drafted in virtually any leagues. If you have Charles on your team, knowing how well the Chiefs can run it would be wise of you to select Jones to stash on your bench in the event of the catastrophic. As for McClain, he most likely will not get drafted in your league, but because we are wise to his talents, keep an eye on him in the first few weeks and he may be worth picking up in TD only leagues. Fun Fact: Currently, in TD only leagues (yardage means nothing), neither Jones nor McClain is the Chiefs best option at running back going by an average of several projections. That distinction goes to our next RB.
Dexter McCluster: ($1) I personally am not drafting DMC in any of my leagues. Buttttt, he does carry some value in leagues such as these: TD only leagues, leagues that offer points for return yards, leagues that offer bonus points for return TDs. In those leagues, especially the TD only leagues, I project that he could outpoint TJ.
Fun Fact: DMC's lack of a true position in the fantasy world could be beneficial to you in some leagues. If you are in a league that gives bonus points for things such as RBs getting receiving TDs or WR's getting rushing TD's he could conceivably give you a small boost. I have seen him drafted as both in leagues I am in.
Dwayne Bowe: ($13) Remember that we are talking strictly on a fantasy basis here. As a Chiefs fan I am hoping for the type of monster numbers Bowe put up last year. Bowe is currently trending as a late third round pick in most drafts and ranks anywhere between 6 and 15 based on your scoring system (projected highest in TD only leagues). The only potential problems I see for Bowe are these: 1) The better the Chiefs get, the more they will be winning games. The more they will be winning late, the more they will run. Possibly a reach, but not outside the realm of probability. 2) Chiefs opponents in Weeks 1-13 were the 2nd toughest for WRs last season on average. 3) WIll he continue to progress with his occasional cases of drop-itis in the Red Zone? Overall, if the two Johnsons, White, and Nicks are off the board already, Bowe is the guy I would go to next in your draft if you are on the clock.
Fun Fact: Bowe is in a contract year. He obviously doesn't care about fantasy football, but he cares about making some cash. Is it enough to motivate him to stay at this level? I say yes and I would take him even before his average spot in the 3rd round.
Jonathan Baldwin: ($1): I don't think I need to convince a lot of AP's readers to not draft this guy early. But I definitely will be keeping an eye on him throughout the year and if you are in a league that includes many non-Chiefs fans, he could be a solid waiver-wire pickup late in the season if he can turn his act around. For many deep round drafts, he is currently being selected in the 18th round on average, putting him at around the 80-85th ranked receiver.
Fun Snarky Fact: Since the AFL-NFL merger, Baldwin joins a very small, elite group of WRs who have successfully caught a beatdown before actually successfully catching a regular season pass. But I digress.
Steve Breaston: ($1): Breaston has low risk/high reward written all over him. If you are searching for that final receiver who you can afford to stash on the bench until his level of productivity becomes clearer, this is your guy. I have had Breaston for a few years and has always managed to come through with some decent contributions on a fantasy level. If he is lined up in the slot, I see him returning to his 2008 form where he was a stalwart target for Haley and Kurt Warner. He has the capability of being much more valuable in a PPR league and I do think he is worth the late round pick, but no earlier than the 13th round in a 12 team league.
Fun Fact: Although it has not appeared like he will reprise his former role, keep an eye on Breaston as a possible KR/PR for points in the event of injuries to McCluster or Arenas
and Quinten Lawrence.
For now: Steer clear of all other Chiefs receivers.
This does it for part one. I encourage questions from our less experienced players, and welcome friendly fire, debate, and maybe even a kudo or two from the rest of AP. See you in Part 2! If you wish to talk more, follow @deemo15