Chiefs are SET at OLB
On March 20th, I wrote the FanPost below in BOLD in response to the chatter about the Chiefs selecting an OLB in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. My opinion was that the Chiefs should not use our first round pick on the OLB position (my favorite was NT Phil Taylor) and my reasoning was that Andy Studebaker had great potential/measurables and had played well when given the chance. Little did I know at the time that my comparison below would feature 3 Chiefs OLBs now that we've drafted Justin Houston:
Many of the mock draft experts have the Chiefs drafting a "bookend OLB" to replace Mike Vrabel and add pass rush skills (Vrabel had ZERO sacks last year) across from Tamba Hali. I personally think we should "reach" a little bit to grab NT Phil Taylor just like Pioli did in 2004 when he grabbed Vince Wilfork at #21 for the Patriots.
Thought you might like to see some “measurables” on some outside linebackers that you might find interesting. I realize that measurables alone do not determine success in the NFL, but I’m going to present the data to you anonymously first and then share the owner of each column of data at the bottom of this post.
Player A Player B Player C Player D
Height 6’ 3” 6’ 3” 6’ 3” 6’ 3”
Weight 246 lbs 255 lbs 270 lbs 275 lbs
40 Yd Dash 4.53 sec 4.51 sec 4.68 sec 4.87 sec
Vertical Leap 37” 36.5” 36.5” 30”
Broad Jump 10’ 6” 10' 7” 10’ 5” 8' 10”
Bench Press 21 reps NA 30 reps 18 reps
As you can see, Player A and Player B are similar to one another in height, weight, speed and overall athleticism while player C is faster, stronger and more athletic than player D.
Player A is Von Miller who’s considered to be the best 3-4 OLB pass rushing prospect in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the top 5
Player B is Andy Studebaker who led the entire nation in sacks (17.5) in 2006 during his junior year at Wheaton College, a Division III school. In his first NFL start with the Chiefs in 2009 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he intercepted 2 passes, returning one for 94 yards. In 2010, in very limited action as Mike Vrabel’s backup, he had 2.5 sacks.
Player C is Justin Houston who’s considered to be the second best 3-4 OLB pass rusher in the 2011 draft and will likely be drafted in the first round
Player D is Tamba Hali who was drafted with the 20th pick in the first round in 2006 by the Chiefs and led the AFC in sacks last year with 14.5.
I'll say again that I know that “measurables” are not everything, but Andy Studebaker is big, fast and athletic. He’s an extremely hard worker and has proven, whenever he’s been given the chance to play, that he can affect the outcome of a football game.
I believe there’s a reason why a GM as intelligent as Scott Pioli awarded Studebaker a 3 year contract extension last fall when the NFL lockout was on the horizon. I don’t believe he would do that unless he was certain that the Chiefs had a “diamond in the rough” and wanted to lock him up while he’s cheap.
Mark my words. Watch for Andy Studebaker to blossom in 2011 as a 3-4 OLB for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Since the draft, I've been focusing more on the 10 yard dash as an important OLB measurable since it suggests the burst needed to rush the passer and is also one indicator of how well a prospect might be able to cover a tight end, slot receiver or back out of the backfield for a short distance. I have to give credit to steve_chiefs as he posted some interesting charts that got me thinking about our LB corps.
Take a look at this eye-popping 10 yard dash comparison of some current star NFL 3-4 OLBs and some of the best prospects from this year's draft:
Clay Matthews 1.49
Brooks Reed 1.54
Brian Orakpo 1.56
Gabe Miller 1.56
Von Miller 1.57
Andy Studebaker 1.59
Cameron Sheffield 1.60
DeMarcus Ware 1.62
Justin Houston 1.62
Cameron Wake 1.62
LaMarr Woodley 1.65
Shaun Phillips 1.68
Four count 'em four Chiefs OLB prospects with ELITE 10 yard dash times. I'm about to jump out of my chair!
Gabe Miller? Are you kidding me? 2nd fastest time in the 10 yard dash of this year's OLB prospects (behind Brooks Reed), but under the radar because he wasn't invited to the Combine. Same height and weight as DeMarcus Ware, but stronger (33 reps to 27 reps) and much quicker burst off the line. Most draft experts are grading this pick as an F (or best case a C) because they didn't know who Gabe Miller was. I admit, I didn't and was shocked when we selected him (I wanted Jerrell Powe since we passed on Phil Taylor and was THRILLED when we grabbed him in the 6th round).
Of course, Miller is as raw as they come, but how exciting is it to get this kind of potential in the FIFTH round and then hand him off to Romeo Crennel, one of the best practitioners of the 3-4 defense? Who better to polish this rough stone into a polished jewel?
Couldn't this be an "embarrassment of riches" at OLB with one of the best in the game today, Tamba Hali, joined by a promising part-time player ready to start in Andy Studebaker, a beast of a "proven" prospect in Justin Houston, a promising prospect from last year returning from injury in Cameron Sheffield AND an amazingly athletic prospect ready to be taught in Gabe Miller?
I believe that the Chiefs are SET at OLB.
By the way, anyone want to know what my favorite Chiefs player, Eric Berry, ran in the 10 yard dash at last year's Combine?
1.54
Wow.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Check this out
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=439601
Puts the numbers to good use.
Also Hmills, if you see this that guy had a response to what you said a while back, and I’ll post it if you want.
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
You mean where steve_chiefs published some snippets from the article you linked?
I’ll go back there and see, unless you post a link really really fast.
would of ≠ would've
Well
Just hit up the link I posted here, and go to the 2nd to last page, he’s got the response on there, and the questions you asked I quoted.
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
by ChiefWarPaint on May 9, 2011 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Guess I didn't read far enough.
OK. He doesn’t get my point, which is that if you’re trying to eliminate straight line speed from twitch, discounting by 40 times makes more sense than discounting for 10-yard split. The 10-yd split is much more influenced by quickness and explosion than the 40 time. Gabe Miller’s 10-yd split is much better than his 40 time. It says he’s quick out of the gates, and explosive over short distances, but doesn’t have great straight-line speed.
But whether or not these measures really capture the essence of what the modeler THINKS doesn’t really matter. The stats ARE valid, if applied across the board. The better players tend to end up near the top of most of the measures.
My thinking, in reading the description, was that Gabe Miller’s cone drill times mean even MORE if his 40 times aren’t good. And if he’s not an especially FAST player, but has good 10-yd split AND 3-cones, his measurement would do less to reflect what’s really happening. To ME, 10-yd split and 3 cones tells you more about short area quickness, and quickness out of the blocks. A guy who’s not really fast can be near the top of the charts in those two categories, and Miller appears to be one of those guys, but the statistic being constructed might miss this.
would of ≠ would've
He took out the 10
Because when you’re doing the shuttle, it starts with a 10 yard run. With the twitch, he wants to take out that 10, and only include the forward and backward bursts. Figuring the real, quick twitch of each athlete, because even big guys can have a good twitch but a slow 10 will knock the actual shuttle time down. At least that’s the reasoning I get out of it.
But I suggest you ask him all this your self, I don’t like being a middle man. We need more Chiefs fans with good insight like yours on that Forum anyway. :P
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Also, totally called the Gabe Miller pick. so yeah I'm awesome.
by ChiefWarPaint on May 11, 2011 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not THAT interested in it, frankly.
But I’ve done a fair amount of math modeling in my time, and my intuitive sense of the formulas is they’re not quite telling him he thinks they are. Still, number crunchers love crunching numbers, and I understand what he’s trying to do, and applaud his efforts. But I’m with the cave men on that thread: Show me the game film. All the drills are imperfect attempts to get at the essence – an essence that only really shows itself on the playing field.
I’d have to stare at the formulas again to even remember what I was thinking at the time. My basic sense is that the 10-yd is largely related to short area quickness, and a guy with a better 10-yd split than 40 time ought to get a BETTER twitch number (He’s getting his 10-yd split off of quickness and explosion rather than straight-line speed). So I’d have 3 cones and 10-yd lumped together, rather than in opposition in my measure.
He even goes so far as to SAY that the accepted method is to use the 40 time in opposition to the 3-cones in order to get a better handle on twitch. I think the accepted (I think he said “proven”) method is more logical. But neither here nor there. He’s trying to subtract off (in a sense) the straight-line portion of the 3-cone, thinking that gives him a better read. And it might be that he’s extracting the pure change-of-direction part of the 3-cone.
I just don’t see it relating to football, because of COURSE you can turn quicker if you’re not moving as fast, so as a measure of football-worthiness, I’m not sure I buy it. Judging a guy higher because he can make quicker turns at a lower speed tells me little.
Let me put it this way. Two guys the same 3-cone time and one guy has a crappier 10-yd split. The guy with the crappier 10-yd split seems like the better player, when in actuality the guy with the quicker 10-yd split is the guy I’d prefer to have on my team. His model would have me discard that guy over the guy who turns really really fast at really really slow speeds.
would of ≠ would've
they are POTENTIALLY set at OLB
everyone outside of Hali, and somewhat Studebaker, are totally unproven at the NFL level.
That being said, if they all play to their potential… absolutely fantastic group of OLBs.
I also like Studebaker to start this year, with Houston and Miller learning the craft, and rotating in.
I mentioned this a bit ago… but, watch Hali’s highlight video in the Fanshots if you doubt Stude… he’s in the backfield meeting Hali at the QB on LOTS of those sacks, and he’s in good coverage forcing the QB to hold the ball on others.
The guy has the ability and the motor, and he’s been a sponge, soaking up Vrabel’s knowledge and leadership. I do think KC likes him, and he’s the frontrunner to start…
but, I think we’d all want to hope Houston wins the job at some point
Sacks are great but I don't think Studebaker has to tools to start or be the guy in there on first down.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
Studebaker or Houston
that is probably your two alternatives right now to start in 2011
"Hair cut time.''
I just don't know if Stude is strong enough at the point of attack against the run
Which is (IMO) even more important than coverage at SOLB. Houston’s bigger, stronger, and has longer arms (to fight off blocks).
I see that 255 weight as a pretty tough mountain for Stude to climb when he’s taking on RTs in the running game. But who knows?
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
At any rate...
Considering the investment put into all these OLBs (Hali, Sheffield, Studebaker, and the 2 rookies drafted), it appears to be the end of Vrabel’s tenure as a Chief. He may be retiring this year.
Those measureables do show one thing
It’s not all about measureables… =)
Hali is weaker, slower, and can’t jump as high or as far as Houston, Studebaker, or Von Miller, but until one of them gets 16 sacks in a season Hali is still the best pass rusher out of all of them…
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
What Hali has however
Is a motor, that doesn’t show up on measurables.
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
by ChiefWarPaint on May 9, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
and how upset will you be if Miller, Stude, and Houston end up playing well...
…and we trade away Hali for draft picks next year?
The Powers Of Astute Observation Are Often Mistaken As Cynicism By Those That Do Not Posses Them -- G.B. Shaw
I doubt Pioli was only interested in grooming QB's for possible trades
3-4 OLB would also be a sweet tradeable commodity
"Hair cut time.''
and how upset will you be if Miller, Stude, and Houston end up playing well..
I have proposed this very possibility a few times, though I don’t think it would happen quite that quickly – I brought up the idea that if Bailey and Houston both start reaching their potentials in 2013 or so (with Houston pass rushing and Bailey starting at SOLB), then I think it’s very likely that they shop Hali around.
What they won’t do is trade Hali before they are certain Houston can match or exceed his production from the WOLB spot.
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
Very Upset
Trading Jared Allen away to rebuild made some sense, but trading Tamba would make none in my opinion. He is the type of quiet, professional & relentless worker that Pioli builds teams around. Pay the man and watch him terrorize quarterbacks for the next 5 years while setting the tone of professionalism that will define the Chiefs. Let Studebaker, Houston, Sheffield and Miller emulate his preparation and production.
Time to harvest the seeds that have been sown. If all of the linebackers develop, then trade one of the young guys, not Tamba.
I agree
Unless Houston shows the ability (and results) that demonstrate a MONSTER pass rusher that could replace Hali instantly, and one of the “other guys” shows the ability to be a very good SOLB, the move would not make sense.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
Player A would never replace Vrabel because he's not a SOLB prospect and never will be so he doesnt even need to be talked about.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
Player B has the same issue as player A
He is a liability against the run and is a sub package player only.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
Player C is probably in the same boat as Player B
As of now he’s a run liability but hopefully with enough coaching he can have his brain trained to properly play the SOLB. He wasn’t worth the risk of not being a SOLB of the future in round one but definitely worth it in round 3.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
I'm guessing that your sarcasmometer is broken there, stag
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
Really didn't see much of him on 1st and 2nd.
Nickely mainly, IIRC. Hard to say Studes was the cause of run problems in that nickel.
would of ≠ would've
Theres a good reason why we didn't see him much on first and second downs.
Its a shame Kalo isnt around regularly in the offseason because hes had great breakdowns onthis.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
by GenericBrand on May 10, 2011 1:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I read 'em.
It’s just hard for me to say which is cause and which is effect. When a player’s in “kill the QB” mode, he’s bound to struggle against the changeup. As little as I saw him on 1st and 2nd, with a base D job definition, I’m just not sure. But it sounds like you remember Kalo holding forth on this subject. My memory is more flawed. Keeps life more exciting!
would of ≠ would've
wasn't sarcasm
I agree with mills, we didn’t see him on obvious running downs…
but I do remember him blowing up a screen or pitch play here and there, and he’s got the motor to get into the backfield and disrupt
We barely saw him at all.
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
by ChiefWarPaint on May 10, 2011 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Only in games in the latter half of the season
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
by ChiefWarPaint on May 10, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I see Player C as physically capable of it though (as I said above)
At 270, with those long (and apparently quite strong) arms, Houston’s got the goods to be good against the run. Stude may just be a little too small.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
Wow and double WOW!
I initialy saw Miller as an interesting project because he was a track athlete turned Footballer, who started as a RB in HS then on to a FB then TE then LB/DE. First scouting report I read said he was interesting but lacked explosiveness to succeed at next level and CBS rated him at #332nd prospect overall.
But…. just look at his measurables like htg / wgt / 40 time / 10 time / shuttles / Reps / Standing Broad jump, etc. and you see he stacks up against the best guys like Von Miller, Sam Acho, and Justin Houston. And Better than guys like Kerrigan, Reed, Ayers, Moch and Mathews. All he lacked was time to develop at one position. I like his raw potential. With brauins to major in Engineering he may develop faster than expected also. Nice project for Romeo to mold into what he needs.
If Hali moves on as he may. We get benefit of draft choices in return. Houston may be moved to Rush LB and Miller may have to compete for the SOLB spot with Studebaker. Or, he may be moved inside. I like all the possibilities.
"You talkin' to me? You TALKIN' to me ?" - Travis Bickle
We do have a situation here with Bowe and Hali
Hali was franchised? bowe is on his final yr? No way Pioli pays both top dollar. What about Flowers is he a free agent after this season too? If so he will cost a ton of money! Top flight cbs are costly. I could see a scenario where we keep Hali this yr then trade him, Franchise bowe or trade him too. Houston and Baldwin could be their replacements. That leaves flowers. No replacement waiting in the wings for flowers.
I’d love to keep all 3 but just dont see it happening. Dorsey will be up soon too, right?
Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan
I see guys getting re-signed during the season
Like DJ and Jamaal did. And since Jamaal, is pretty much the best player on the team, I’m confident we can resign others as well.
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
by ChiefWarPaint on May 10, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I do too
I think Hali has a long term deal before the season starts
Flowers gets a new deal before the season ends
We’ll see on Carr and Bowe
I'm actually iffy on Flowers
I see Carr getting a deal done more then Flowers.
Bowe I think gets one mid-season ala DJ.
But as long as there’s a lockout, who knows when Hali will get one done ):
Better to be a Diamond with a flaw than a Pebble without - Master Kong
Only time will tell...
by ChiefWarPaint on May 10, 2011 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions
If you want to go off of that theory
Arenas was drafted by Pioli.. and hes small! must be a replacement for Flowers.
I don't start arguments, I provoke thinking. -Me
H^2-Hali and Houston
by BAMFSpecialOps on May 10, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I do agree with ya Mr. J, AND with the additions at the OLB position,...
Hali will probably get traded before Bowe or Flowers. I also can see Carr getting traded as well, If Jahil Brown proves to be worthy, later-on.
by gregorychief on May 11, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

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