NFL Network starts to go crazy wondering what the heck just happened. "Is thre a trade?...It seems the Ravens have passed on their.." and before they could even finish the sentence red blared across the screen declaring the Chiefs had made a pick. We all know the "WTF" moment that followed that. The Chiefs chose one Jonathan "I hate my QB" Baldwin. With all the questions that arose at that moment both by draft analyst and fans, there is one more prevalent and important now than on draft day. Do the Chiefs finally have "that guy"
Last season the greatest struggle the Chiefs had was finding "that guy" across of Dwayne Bowe. They could prod the opponent with Bowe but once the Chiefs' opponents shut down Bowe they were able to stack the box and focus on the guts of the offense; Jamaal Charles and the #1 rushing attack. The hope in every Chiefs fans heart is that Baldwin will be "that guy" that finally helps to even out the offense.
What I want to do, two games at a time, is see what kind of impact Baldwin could have in the upcoming season, by looking at the 2010 season. All of the monikers given to players (such as possession, "#2", and speed) are of my own opinion and all stats are from last season1. Buffalo Bills
- Challenged 10 "Possession receivers" and 6 "Speed Receivers" defined as #2's
- Average: 3.5 catches a game
- Average: 47.31 yards
- "Possession" #2's averaged 3.7 Catches, and 52.2 Yards.
- "Speed" #2's averaged 2.8 Catches and 39.1 Yards
- Teams with Top 15 rushing attacks were pretty average. Posting an average of 3.5 Catches for 46 yards. Although if you throw out Terrance Copper's abysmal performance you get an above average 3.8 catches for 58.12 Yards.
- Strongest #2 performance? Davone Bess of the Miami Dolphins with 9 catches for 78 yards. Logging both the most catches and yards by one #2 WR against the Bills all season.
- Weakest #2 performance? Terrance Copper, Kansas City Chiefs, logging 1 Catch for 5 Yards.
It seems as though Possession WR perform much better than speed receivers. As it stands right now, the Bills have a huge question mark at the CB position. Leodis McKelvin shows flashes at times but is very inconsistent, while Terrance McGee is more prone to injury, and can be bossed around by more physical receivers.
The Bills responded to the issue by drafting THREE corners in the draft. The way I see it, improvement in their secondary rests on the shoulders of second round pick Aaron Williams. Williams is a big physical corner that could help with the problems the Bills have been having with possession receivers, allowing Safety Donte Whitner to focus on TE's, and Jarius Byrd to keep locking down those speed receivers.
My guess? Baldwin, still getting used to our offense, posts an average game. 4 catches 45 yards.
- There were two games (CLE and NE) where the opposition only had one receiver post any yardage.
- Challenged 10 "Possession" receivers and 6 "Speed" receivers classified as #2's
- Overall Average: 3.37 Catches for 46.56 Yards
- Taking out the NE and CLE games the average goes up to 3.86 Catches for 53.21 Yards
- "Possession" receivers averaged 2.9 Catches for 32.2 Yards. However taking out the NE and CLE games (Massoquoi and Edelman) the average goes up to 3.6 Catches for 40.3 Yards.
- "Speed" receivers fared much better logging 5 catches for 44.2 Yards.
- Teams with top 15 rushing attacks oddly didn't fare well. Logging 2.9 Catches for 44.2 Yards. Taking out NE the average goes up to about 6 Catches and 50.5 Yards.
- Weakest Performance? Pretty Obvious, CLE and NE
- Strongest Performance? Stevie Johnson's beastly 8 Catch 158 Yard outing.
- A trend that I figured better said than tracked because of how obvious it is. Teams with weak offensive lines had terrible outings against the Ravens. T
- he drop in production from Possession guys is probably due to the Ravens solid Linebackers and Chris Carr, we say this in the first week of playoffs.
- Teams with more established #1 Receivers generally did well.
The Ravens have a lot of questions at CB but luckily their front 7 and their Safties are so good it's not much of a hinderance to them. Chris Carr performed fairly well and stepped up as the Ravens #1 CB last season. That said, Carr is a free agent but Jimmy Smith was drafted in the first round. If the Ravens can bring Carr back their defense will be stacked. It takes a while to develop a route when your facing a solid CB and Dewan Landry and Ed Reed over the top. Unfortunately, time isn't something you have when you play Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, and Terrell Suggs.
My prediction? This is a week for the rusher and Baldwin puts up a paltry 2 catches for 35 yards