What will the 2011 NFL draft look like in terms of trading activity?
Under the current CBA conditions, no players will be tradeable for picks this year. There was a total of 34 trades made on draft weekend in 2010. Twenty-two of them were 2010 picks exchanged, six involved future draft picks, and six involved players for picks.
Future NFL picks in the 2012 draft and beyond are tradable but what are they worth? Some claim the future value of the 2012 picks will be increased due to the inflated value of 2011 picks.
Who has the ability to make trades? Some teams just do not participate heavily in draft day trading anyway. The Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, and the Chicago Bears made no draft weekend trades in 2010.
So who might make Odd Bedfellows in the 2011 NFL Draft?
An excellent article from Big Cat Country today highlighted some of the possible issues for the 2011 draft and trading picks/players:
2. With no CBA in place, players would not be able to be traded. Draft picks could still be traded, but only for other draft picks; picks could not be swapped for players, and players could not be swapped for other players either. With no free agency and no trades, this means that the ONLY method of player acquisition for the foreseeable future would be the 2011 NFL Draft
3. With no CBA in place, 2011 draft picks would increase in importance. The usual rule of thumb when trading the next year's picks for this year's (in this case, trading 2012 picks for 2011 picks) is that the next year's pick would be a round higher than this year's pick (2012 1st-rounder for 2011 2nd-rounder). This rule of thumb would go out the window, and the price of picks in the 2011 draft would go up quite a bit. It is quite possible that the price of picks could increase so much that a 2011 3rd-round pick could potentially be worth as much as a 2012 1st-round pick. Even if it's not quite this high, it could still be something like a 2012 2nd-rounder AND a 2011 5th-rounder, which is still more than it would usually cost for a 2011 3rd-round pick.
The full article is here.
Does this impact the Kansas City Chiefs at all? Maybe not.
Scott Pioli for all the expectations he brought from New England with him only made one draft weekend trade in 2010, trading a 4th and a 5th to Houston for the right to draft Tony Moeaki in the late 3rd round. Our fellow AFC West competition was hardly shy in trading picks, players, and anything else in the 2010 draft. Who did they trade with and how many trades did they make?
- San Diego (3) - Philadelpia, San Francisco, and Miami;
- Denver (5) - Tampa Bay, Baltimore, New England, Philadelphia, and San Francisco;
- Oakland (3) - Jacksonville, New England, and Tampa Bay; and,
- Kansas City (1) - Houston.
Who were the most active franchises in 2010 at making moves?
- The Philadelphia Eagles with 6 trades;
- The New England Patriots with 6 trades;
- The Denver Broncos with 5 trades; and,
- The Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, and San Diego Chargers made 3 trades each.
I have previously posted about the New England Patriots Warchest of 2-1st's, 2-2nd's, 2-3rd's and single picks in the final 4 rounds for a total of 10 picks. San Diego is in good shape with 2-2nd's and 2-3rd's though they are missing 4th, 5th, and 7th round picks this year. San Francisco has the back end of the draft covered with a total of 7 4-7 round picks and 10 total picks in all. Philadelphia has 7 Top 150 picks to work with.
So, New England, San Diego, San Francisco, and Philadelphia are all possible trade partners for someone.
Quite a number of teams are short picks and probably not going to be very active for the all important 1st few rounds unless they are going to deal future picks in 2012. New Orleans has 5 picks. Carolina, Miami, and the Jets have no 2nd round pick, and Oakland has no 1st round pick. Denver is missing their mid round 4-5 picks but do have 2-2nd round picks they could move back with.
"History shows there's no real pressure to get a deal 'til you get to September,'' Tagliabue said. Cue the ominous bass drums.
Goodell is adamant that he doesn't want to wait until September for a deal, whatever good that does. "The damage will start occurring and escalating by March," he said. "I say that on all levels. The owners will be forced to take certain steps, the players forced to go to litigation and perhaps decertification [of the union], and those things that are difficult to unwind. Will fans put money down for season tickets? Will sponsors set aside money to advertise on games they're not sure will be played? My fear is that players think there won't be any damage done until we miss games. Not true. Also, what's your free-agency window going to be if this goes far?''
We might have to make due with the picks we got :) Or call Bill.