The Chiefs Need a QB, But Can We Get One?

by Wait and See on Dec 9, 2011 1:58 PM CST

An effective QB would improve the Chiefs more than an upgrade at any other position. There are four QBs expected to enter the upcoming draft that are considered good enough to start in their first season: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, and Landry Jones. This article, which was co-written by a friend, examines the likelihood of one of those players being available at the Chiefs draft slot.

Two disclaimers:

The draft order will likely change. For example, Seattle has been playing well and has an easier schedule than we do to close out the season.
The QBs have yet to be fully analyzed, which could insert new players into the mix or cause one of the top 4 to nosedive.

Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB

In determining draft order, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, so we calculated these values to date. If the draft was tomorrow, the top 15 order would follow the table below (I believe the Bills and Seahawks would flip a coin to break their tie).

Pick #	Team	W	L	SOS
1	Colts	0	12	0.535
2	Rams	2	10	0.556
3	Vikings	2	10	0.569
4	Jaguars	3	9	0.549
5	Redskins	4	8	0.458
6	Panthers	4	8	0.465
7	Browns	4	8	0.486
8	Eagles	4	8	0.507
9	Dolphins	4	8	0.521
10	Buccaneers	4	8	0.576
11	Cardinals	5	7	0.444
12	Chiefs	5	7	0.465
13	Seahawks	5	7	0.514
14	Bills	5	7	0.514
15	Chargers	5	7	0.521

Four teams ahead of us (Colts, Redskins, Browns and Dolphins) and one team tied with us (Seahawks) have an obvious need at QB and haven't spent any currency on one recently. In contrast, the Rams, Vikings, Jaguars, Panthers, Buccaneers, Cardinals and Bills have either signed a player or drafted a player with a high pick in the last few years (most surprisingly, the Bills gave Fitzpatrick a large extension). The Eagles and Chargers have good QBs.

Assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's unlikely we'd get any of the top 4. The Colts are widely expected to take Luck, and it seems unlikely that Griffin, Barkley and Jones would make it past three other teams that need a QB. However, there is the scenario where the Browns are comfortable with McCoy and the Dolphins are happy with Henne and Moore competing. If we assume one of the two is true (likely the former), the Chiefs would be able to take the fourth QB (which right now is Landry Jones).

As far as teams trading to get ahead of us and take a QB, there are two likely candidates. The most obvious threat is the Seahawks: Tarvaris Jackson isn't viewed as a long-term starter, the Seahawks are in a good position to minimize trade cost, and Carroll is entering his third year and hasn't yet drafted a QB. The Broncos are the other team: both Elway and Fox have expressed dissatisfaction with their QB situation, although their move surely hinges on how well Tebow progresses with his passing. Either of these scenarios would make it ever harder for the Chiefs to get one of the top 4 with the 12th pick.

Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round

We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. Other common picks (and presumably needs) among top 11 drafters are WR, OT, DT, DE and DB.

The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 11 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round.

Year	Top 11	Top 32
2011	3	4
2010	1	2
2009	2	3
2008	1	2
2007	1	2
2006	3	3
2005	1	3
2004	3	4
2003	2	4
2002	2	3

Last year represented a heavy investment in early-pick QBs, with three taken in the first 11 picks (and Christian Ponder taken at pick 12). However:

On average, only two QBs are taken in the first 11 picks.
In all of the past ten drafts, at least one of the top four QBs was available at pick 12.
In seven of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top four QBs were available at pick 12.

Unless the QB situation in the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, these data indicate that the Chiefs have a decent statistical chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round.

What are the Chiefs Prospects?

The needs and historical perspectives are at odds, with the former painting a bleak picture and the latter providing hope. To come to a conclusion, we can look at specific past drafts with comparable QB prospect hype, namely those in 2006, 2009 and 2011 (I don't remember the 2004 draft). In two of those years, three QBs ended up going in the top 11 picks. I think we'll see something similar this year; it's not that league-wide the QB position is worse than in the past, but rather that three guys (Luck, Barkley, Jones) were considered high-caliber NFL prospects coming into the season and now Griffin has dazzled as well. Combine that with teams that definitely need a QB and I'd guess three of these guys will be gone by the current Chiefs pick (12th overall).

Of course, we could always move up, there's a fourth prospect and as described above, there are multiple reasons to think at least two of the top four will be available at our pick. So if you really want the Chiefs to take a QB in the first round, you have plenty of reasons to believe they'll have the opportunity.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Comments

Nice post.

Rodgers and Roethlisberger were both mid first round picks, so anything can go, especially when you have a QB draft class as deep as this one looks.

There’s a chance Barkley or RG3 might slip, and you can never rule out the possibility of the Chiefs trading up a few spots if a guy Pioli is set on slips in his range.

by Tomahawk29 on Dec 9, 2011 2:56 PM CST reply actions

Big Ben went 11 not later in the 1st round

In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti

by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 10, 2011 6:48 PM CST up reply actions

"Mid" is what he said. Not "later"

11 is much closer to the middle than the beginning. Hence, “mid”

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Dec 10, 2011 9:23 PM CST up reply actions

how is that mid?

Mid is 16 ish 15 ish ,,,,,,11th is NOT mid by any means

In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti

by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 10, 2011 9:58 PM CST up reply actions

early is 1-10, mid is 11-20 and late is 21-32

by Doc Fluty on Dec 11, 2011 12:53 PM CST up reply actions

oops closer to the beginnig than late,got to love vodka

In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti

by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 10, 2011 9:59 PM CST up reply actions

I like the kid from Arkansas. RG3 is already having concussion problems, Luck is an

accurate passer but I haven’t seen that great arm in my limited time watching him, I am not certain yet of Barkley as I haven’t seen enough of him. Let’s not forget Stanzi who may be the guy. So. like last year almost everyone wanted the NT from Baylor, but not me, and I think that Cassel will be the guy starting for the Chief’s next year with some O-line help. We should be in a very good position to draft a player who fits our needs. To bad our season has been so mucked up and we are already having draft posts. But keep them coming, as they seem to generate the most opinions.

by dubld on Dec 9, 2011 5:07 PM CST reply actions

Stanzi IS NOT the guy

Luck is ,lets sell Piolis soul to get him.And Luck has a huge arm,that is just draft pundit speak.People are trying to find fault with this guy,there isn’t 1.Unless you count the fact he is fugly

In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti

by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 10, 2011 6:51 PM CST up reply actions

If you say so, it must be true. I saw a lot to like with Stanzi in preseason. Most likely Pioli

will want to keep his soul, so we can trade you to whoever drafts Luck. As for Luck’s arm strength, when I see him play he throws some accurate, but floater type balls. He has great touch, but in the big leagues the DB’s are fast AND quick and floating passes often get snagged by the wrong team. I agree Luck has much in his favor, but I want to see him rocket the ball. Actually Luck reminds of Tebow and Locker, just a better passer.

by dubld on Dec 11, 2011 8:16 AM CST up reply actions

your crazy

Luck is a 10 times better player than those 2 guys.He has nothing in common with those guys.A better comparison is Aaron Rogers

In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti

by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 11, 2011 2:27 PM CST up reply actions

I don't see any reason for the Chiefs to select a QB in the next draft

by Dagda on Dec 9, 2011 5:55 PM CST reply actions

how about qb play this season

to change your mind that ought to do it.

by tomachop on Dec 15, 2011 8:46 PM CST up reply actions

train wreck'd ... your friend does nice work

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Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Dec 9, 2011 6:45 PM CST reply actions

Before this season

I would say that teams that have recently invested a high pick/high contract to a QB would be highly unlikely to draft a QB high.

However, with the new rookie wage scale, its not as expensive anymore to fathom a team like Minnesota, Buffalo, or Jacksonville to take a QB if the draft plays out in a certain fashion. With young, newly contacted QBs, its easy to argue that those teams have more pressing needs, but if a team operates on a strict BPA plan of action in this next draft, we might just see a QB get drafted by a team that doesn’t necessarily need one right now

I'm so overrated, I'm underrated.

by RememberDelaney37 on Dec 9, 2011 7:12 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Please God, not Landry Jones

Twitter: RaiderHater86

by ExRoyalsFan on Dec 9, 2011 7:47 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Matt Cassel > Landry Jones

Angry Red, 'nuff said.

by chiefsfan62 on Dec 9, 2011 9:09 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Brandon Weeden would be a cheap option

and of course there is next year also

by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 9, 2011 8:27 PM CST reply actions

WE DONT NEED A QB

we drafted STANZI last year if they would only give him a chance, plus what ROUND DID BRADY GO WASNT IT A VERY LATE 5TH ROUND, JUST LIKE STANZI

by Stop21 on Dec 9, 2011 9:09 PM CST reply actions

... and Stanzi is SO GOOD that we're starting Tyler Palko again this week

by upamtn on Dec 9, 2011 9:41 PM CST up reply actions

Starting Palko..

Go check with Haley, he has a man crush for Palko. Three int’s in the first 2 games that he started. Let’s not forget the fumble also. Then to top it all off, Haley trots out Orton last week and he promptly gets hurt.

Bears game, Chiefs were lucky to win. Ball should have been intercepted in the endzone. Palko can’t get out of his own way.

by trchief on Dec 10, 2011 9:28 PM CST up reply actions

Man, you're right...

The fact that Stanzi and Brady were drafted in late 5th rounds make them both locks for the Hall of Fame.

by fresh2death on Dec 9, 2011 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

...my $.02 worth...

I suspect Haley’s inane approach to the past training camp could have something to do with Stanzi’s non-role this year. Could be Haley figured that with no OTA’s last year, Stanzi just couldn’t possibly be ready to go this season. Either that, or Stanzi can’t hit himself in the butt with both hands. If he isn’t better than Palko, we wasted a choice.

by Special K on Dec 10, 2011 12:27 AM CST reply actions

I'm better than Palko and I've never even played football.

Faithless is he who says farewell when the road darkens...

by 5280ChiefsFan on Dec 10, 2011 2:08 AM CST up reply actions

how long you been here in Denver? the thin atmosphere seems to be clouding your judgement ;-)

by upamtn on Dec 10, 2011 10:12 AM CST up reply actions

Lotta good points in post by Wait and See.

I don’t think we will see standings remain static. With our schedule we will finish closer to a 5th pick than a 10th, 11th, 12th or 13th and Pioli will be open to move up if a guy he likes is there or move back if we get a chance for extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. Because I see the most value in the earlier rounds I would be in favor of trading any and all of later rounds to move up in 1st or get extra picks in 2nd and 3rd.

"You talkin' to me? You TALKIN' to me ?" - Travis Bickle

by CatChief on Dec 10, 2011 11:43 AM CST reply actions

Nice post

Generally, this year presents multiple opportunities to get a QB PROVIDED that all four of those guys come out…

Given the number of teams who don’t need a QB that will be high up, and our traddeable commodity in Dorsey (sorry big fella, but the time’s pretty much come IMO), and our at least somewhat high draft position… there’s no reason we shouldn’t be able to trade up to get whoever we want not named Luck.

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Dec 10, 2011 9:28 PM CST reply actions

Chicken before the egg

Do you draft a QB before you have an offensive line to protect him from having 20 concussions before he’s in his 3rd year? When a possible player you believe is a franchise QB is there you definitely have to take a chance because you don’t have that chance often. In this draft there are 5 QBs with possible physical tools to succeed in the NFL (Luck, Barkley, RG3, Jones & Tannehill) and 1 who has good tools (Weeden) but is older than Matt Cassell already – so by the time he matures into an NFL playoff caliber QB, he’ll be ready to retire. And then there are your all star college QBs (Kellen Moore and Case Keenum) that are undersized (I’ve watched Moore a lot and he’s good, but I don’t think he has the zip to get in the ball against quicker NFL defenses, can’t say I’ve seen more than 2 games of Keenum but small spread offense QBs usually don’t fly for a number of reasons.

All this being said, and even if we get an upgrade along the OL we’ll still possibly have rookie or two OL (or maybe a has been FA – they don’t let too many talented bookend tackles free (Gaither-time will tell). So IF we get a QB with a young OL, and the pick that went to a QB is taken away from the talent level for our amazing new OT, where will we stand. With Luck (after we trade our next 5 years of first round picks) we maybe back to a 10-6 playoff team with the future bright as a Super Bowl type talent, but Pioli needs to open ip the pocketbooks for FA and hit on a lot of 3rd to FA types); Barkley (I like contrary to many opinions) is 2" smaller than the optimum 6-4 and maybe can’t gun a pass 75 yards downfield, but seems too process the pre snap reads, know where he’s going, has the touch to do many throws, enough of an arm to zip in passes, anticipates WR coming out of breaks well (a Cassell weakness) & is very accurate in the pocket or on the move (another Cassell inconsistency). I believe he’s mentally tough, having been the can’t miss prospect since his sophomore year of high school, going to USC and having to go through turmoil of scandals, and bowl ineligibility and he seems to be positive and responds well. We might be able to trade up for him with an exrtra 1st or two 2nds and our 1st. I think he can bring us a 7-9 record his rookie year with great possibility for growth and talent level (not playing style or mental make-up) on par with Jay Cutler. RG3 is a physical freak who can throw the ball on a rope, run with anyone, seems to be a great leader and teammate. With the kind of pass rush the NFL brings the dimension of a QB who can escape and bea running threat is great, and I don’t think he’ll be the kind of QB who’ll only look to running (young Micheal Vick/Tarvaris Jackson). Reading NFL coverages and blitzes may be a learning curve as well as dropping back and making those reads, but he has amazing potential and some risk. I think his record might be more like 5-11, but I think he’ll get better quick with the potential to be a game changer all his own. And he’s very accurate.
I think all three of those guys above are way better than the Gabbert, Ponder and Locker trio that was drafted last draft in the 1st, with Jones being talent wise more on their level, and I don’t see much difference in talent between Locker and Tannehill (excepth tanehill seems more accurate). But I wouldn’t want to draft a QB (or any player for that matter) who doesn’t pan out, because it takes a while too rebound from those mistakes. If we can get Barkley or RG3 without getting too gouged, I say go for it. I’d be a little worried with Jones (he should stay in school), Tannehill would be great in the 2nd, but I bet some team takes a flyer on him late draft (Pittsburgh/San Francisco) or somebody trades up. For rookies too make an impact, they need a great team and offensive line around them and I don’t see our talent level matching the Jets when Sanchez took over, or Pittsburgh when Rothleisberger took over (Cincinnati with Dalton?) — so I doubt we’ll see a Super Bowl next year, but everyone will be excited and hopeful until we decide to throw that guy under the bus if he hasn’t taken us too the Division Championship next year.

by Dawson to Taylor on Dec 15, 2011 2:57 PM CST reply actions