Peyton Manning's trade value
by Jay Cotton on Dec 8, 2011 1:13 PM CST
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To be honest, no one knows. But I have a good guess,
Thats perhaps (two 2 round picks) or a (2nd and a 3rd). I know what you're thinking "Hey what about the Carson deal, or the Cassel deal?" I realize there is no way to compare Manning and either of the two QB's I've named, (because of Manning greatness) but for perpective's sake they must be used.
Here's the logic...
You dont give up the farm for a guy who is going to get a $28 Mil Roster bonus. Thats called bad business. No one should be willing to do that. Imagine giving up multiple (newly discounted) 1st round picks, and picking up a contract that includes shelling out $28 Million dollars ON AVERAGE PER YEAR.
In most instances where you see multiple picks in a trade is for player (with a very team friendly contract) or moving up to draft a player (who will eventually have a team-friendly contract, if said player plays up to that pick)
Here are a few examples of what I'm talking about:
OAK gave: 2012 1st, conditional 2013 1st/2nd High Compensation
CIN gave: Carson Palmer and his contract on average about 13 Million per season through 2014. Team Friendly
For a little perspective here are the 2011 QB salary ranks enjoy!
Here more on his contract
Peyton Manning 23
Sam Bradford 18.4
The Beautiful One 18
Michael Vick 15.9
Mark Sanchez 13.5
Matt Cassel (Holding it down, I might add) 12.25
There are a few more that should be seeing extension Manning-esque like Hmmm... Like Brees, Rivers, (and oh yeah that guy) A. Rodgs
Lets assume that Brees Rivers and Rodgers get extended that'll put Palmer around top 10 QB money, which in all honesty isnt as bad as it sounds because it should be about 10 mill on average less than the top 3. By the time his contract expires (2014) he should be making right about middle of the pack. Friendly!
Lets take a quick look at Cassel (even though we all know it)
KC gives: 2nd Rounder Low Compensation
NE gives: Vrabel, Cassel UNFRIENDLY CONTRACTS
Cassel contract franchised at that time around 14.65 Million, Vrabel contract around 5.8 Million
You want to trade a guy with a team friendly contract? Lets talk about multiple picks!
You want to trade a guy with a loaded contract? Let me see what I have in my garage...
Trade logic should kick in and say "Do you have any beachfront property you'd like to sell me also?"
Will someone offer a lot for Manning? Sure, the difference in the examples I made is talent.
Palmer<Manning
Cassel+Vrabel<Manning
Its such a tough deal to get right. I just dont want to be the team associated with pulling a Ditka, for a guy thats unsure health-wise, on top of all the issues I've listed above. If we traded for him, a ridiculous amount of compensation, and he didn't or couldn't produce, that might cut me deep... real deep....
The not-so talked about issue is this... Peyton is going to be given a list of which teams which want to trade for him, and within the Colts ability they will send him where he wants to go. Is it KC? I'm bias as hell. I think we are a match made in heaven, young talent, hungry rising defense, but what does Peyton think? What does he think of Pioli or Haley, or our current offense? I dont know
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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I think it is more likely he gets released than traded.
He has a $28 million dollar bonus due in March. What team (including Colts) want to pay that if they don’t know if he can even play?
The views expressed by craig in calgary do not necessarily represent the views of all Canadians.
You think they will just let him walk?
for nothing?
This Organization knows how to beat the fan out of you. But I don't go down easily...
Chiefs fan dont die, even when Clark Hunt pulls the trigger. You aint going NOWHERE
They may have no choice.
If they have to pay that bonus they are gonna want a king’s ransom for him which they wont get.
Or they can redo the contract
Which is the only solution to trading Manning
I don't start arguments, I provoke thinking. -Me
Alameda Ta’amu NT/DE 2012 Draftee
by BAMFSpecialOps on Dec 8, 2011 2:03 PM CST up reply actions
To me there is a huge reason
the Colts paid Manning this season knowing full well, he might be able to play. They did him a favor. He’ll delay the payment
This Organization knows how to beat the fan out of you. But I don't go down easily...
Chiefs fan dont die, even when Clark Hunt pulls the trigger. You aint going NOWHERE
Its not time to be cute... Teams that
want Peyton will have to pay him top 5 money anyways… To me its about leap-froggin teams interested in his services
This Organization knows how to beat the fan out of you. But I don't go down easily...
Chiefs fan dont die, even when Clark Hunt pulls the trigger. You aint going NOWHERE
Not talking about cute
talking about paying top 1-2 QB money plus that huge Bonus, when Peyton is going to dictate where he goes regardless of who wants to leapfrog other teams
If you're talking multiple firsts and saving upwards of $10M
The owners and GM’s of the league will wait it out
There are no stupid questions just stupid people
This is what the Colts will want, the interesting thing is whether Manning will agree.
The views expressed by craig in calgary do not necessarily represent the views of all Canadians.
I'm sure Manning wants to play
I doubt he is going to sit on his hands throwing a little fit about it. If Manning gets to CHOOSE where he goes I’m sure that will help, he gets to decide what team is closest and he can push over the top, and try to spite Indy
I don't start arguments, I provoke thinking. -Me
Alameda Ta’amu NT/DE 2012 Draftee
by BAMFSpecialOps on Dec 8, 2011 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
It's not about spiting Indy
He’ll either want to play there, or he’ll want to choose where he plays. He won’t do them a favor.
Huzzah! Fantasy football has returned, allowing me to slap my opponents (family members) across the face with my favorite pair of white satin gloves. En garde, monkeys!
I actually do think he would want to go to a team that would face Indy often
Just my take on him, he would want to show Indy that they shouldn’t have moved on from him
I don't start arguments, I provoke thinking. -Me
Alameda Ta’amu NT/DE 2012 Draftee
by BAMFSpecialOps on Dec 8, 2011 4:51 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
Dude’s one of the most competitive guys ever to play sports. Guys like that take people underestimating them personally. See: MJ
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
I feel the same way.
I don’t know all of the ins and outs of the contracts, but I do know that the Colts are not likely to pass on their QB of choice in the draft. If they keep Manning, they are going to have to pay him a lot of money. There is a very good chance that Peyton will not be able to play and if so, not for very long. His injury is serious. There is also the question of whether or not he will be the same player. Does a team trade away their future for a QB that might be what he used to be? And even if he is what he used to be he is still getting up there in age, so how many years does he have left anyway?
I would wait until after the draft and wait on the Colts to have to release him. That way you could sign him to your own terms (to some degree) and not be screwed if he is not what you want him to be. If you trade for him, you will have to give away the future to get him.
Wow. The Colts could draft a young franchise QB and pick up several high round future draft picks for Manning if they trade him. They would be set for YEARS.
"If ifs mattered, everyone would be undefeated." Enite
I don't think if they go with Luck over Manning the Colts will be good for years
That whole team is aging, and pretty easy to see how bad the front office has been drafting lately, Manning has covered up all of those issues. Now if you go with a young QB even a great looking prospect, you have contracts/age all over the place and with some bad drafts.. they do not have a good core
I don't start arguments, I provoke thinking. -Me
Alameda Ta’amu NT/DE 2012 Draftee
by BAMFSpecialOps on Dec 9, 2011 9:06 AM CST up reply actions
It looks like the Colts will have to make something happen
Manning’s bonus kicks in before the Draft so they will have to cut him prior to that or pay that big chunk and try to trade him. That is risky because what if no one bites because of the money and pretty much every team could screw Indy so would have to almost give manning away if they want Luck.
Don't the Colts have to pay the bonus
if they want to trade him?
Not sure how the contract works, but I would have thought that the only way Manning gets that bonus is if he stays with the Colts, who could then trade or keep him.
If they cut him, they don’t have to pay the bonus, but then he’s free to sign wherever.
by MaxSFBay on Dec 8, 2011 1:58 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Unless the contract is redone, if he is will a team on whatever date the bonus gets applied, they pay the bonus
I don't start arguments, I provoke thinking. -Me
Alameda Ta’amu NT/DE 2012 Draftee
by BAMFSpecialOps on Dec 8, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions
Why would another team pay
when they can force indy to pay him or cut him. wait and then see what happens on or after draft day. The closer to the draft the more i see the price for him going down because the colts have no leverage. If everyone knows they want Luck and wont keep Manning who is gonna give something for him without seeing if he can play.
its the same situation as NE a few years ago
Cassell was franchised. Everyone knew that NE didnt want to keep both Brady and Cassell. At least two teams were still interested in Cassel. Us and Denver
This Organization knows how to beat the fan out of you. But I don't go down easily...
Chiefs fan dont die, even when Clark Hunt pulls the trigger. You aint going NOWHERE
It's very different
It’s $28 mil that the Colts have to pay up front or get nothing for him.
Cassel was ‘guaranteed’ that money, but it wasn’t up front, and NE was sure there would be people willing to trade and pick up the tab.
Unless they work something out with Peyton to delay the payment (and if he knows they are doing this just to trade him-why would he), Colts are in a real bind.
Hmm...draft the best QB in the draft or keep the best QB in the league.
I wish the Chiefs were in that bind.
Live Adventure!
by MountainManMike on Dec 8, 2011 2:44 PM CST up reply actions
Sure
The bind is with Peyton. They are in a great spot by tanking all year, yes.
I think they are going to cut him…and it’s hard to see another way around it unless they think he’s going to be fully healthy and play 4 more years, then maybe you sign him and trade the Luck pick…but that’s short-sighted.
Unless you don't look at Luck as a sure thing to be great like Peyton
WITH a healthy Peyton and the friggin BOUNTY they’d get for that pick, we’re talking SB contender for the remainder of Peyton’s career.
With Luck and a released Manning, they’ve still got a crappy, crappy team with a rookie QB. And let’s face it, no matter how good Luck is, the odds are much greater that he’ll be Matt Ryan than Peyton Manning. And even that much will probably take at least a year or two.
Do you go for the “sure thing” over 4-5 years or the “not sure” thing for the next 15 years? That makes it tough IMO.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
Here's the thing...
If they trade Luck, they can still get a pretty solid QB most likely with all the crazy picks they are going to get. But with the lower drafted QB, they can sit him behind Manning for a couple of years and when Manning is done, your next QB is ready to go. I think they need to take a play out of Green Bay’s playbook. With the rest of the picks, they can fill in the wholes where needed to get Peyton to another SB or two…that is barring Peyton being healthy of course which I don’t put much stock in.
Live Adventure!
by MountainManMike on Dec 9, 2011 2:02 AM CST up reply actions
They'll have a hard enough time keeping the current core of team in place
Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis & Jeff Saturday are among the many unrestricted free agents that team has, and I believe Freeney is a FA after next season. Not that it matters much, other than Garcon all these guys are near the end of their career anyway. Dallas Clark is 32 & becoming injury prone.
The point is, with or without Manning the Colts are entering a rebuilding period. They hold all the cards, but there’s no way they’re winning another SB in the next 3-4 years.
Predictions:
I'm going to stop predicting positive things
The Colts don't have Brady. Uh oh.......
"If ifs mattered, everyone would be undefeated." Enite
Trade = We own him.
Release = Bidding War and He Decides
by NJ Chiefs Fan on Dec 8, 2011 2:25 PM CST up reply actions
He's not going anywhere he doesnt want to go trade or not
lest we forget Eli in SD. Archie is already making the media rounds about Him and Luck on the same team.
But what other team with a 'good' roster (that doesn't need a QB) can afford him?
I think he’d chose to come to KC if his decision is based on the desire to win. Honestly we could pay him $20m per season & still retain the talent that’s in place now…what other teams can say that?
It just makes too much sense, I think he’ll be retired, in Indy, or in KC next season.
Predictions:
I'm going to stop predicting positive things
I could see him buting heads with Haley
And this is coming from one of Haley’s biggest fans.
Nicknames I have coined:
Jamaal Charles = 'Haley's Comet'
Shaun Smith = 'Big Nasty'
Kelly Gregg = 'Old Gregg'
If so, that's Haley's problem
I like Haley too, but if he’s not smart enough to trust Manning (essentially his own playcaller for a decade) then he’s not smart enough to be our HC.
Predictions:
I'm going to stop predicting positive things
Beyond this
We also have Lilja & Berry to sway his opinion of the org (and imagine how many new KC fans we’d make in Tennessee with their two most legendary players on our roster!).
I’d even say do a franchise&trade of Bowe & sign Garcon to make Peyton happy (and I do like Bowe as well).
Predictions:
I'm going to stop predicting positive things
There's definitely still a lot of love for Pey-Pey here in TN
Even though he always murders the Titans, being a division rival.
The guy is still virtually a demigod in parts of this state.
That would be entertaining because then I could sway a few more people to screaming for the Chiefs at the local sports bar on Sundays. (Plus you know….winning)
Foxtrot Alpha November - Sierra Hotel Oscar Tango!
Hm, I thought I had read that the bonus was due before the official start of the 2012 season
I just did a search and (surprise) found contradicting statements on teh intarwebz.
There are some statements that indicate that the bonus is due before trades are allowed, which would indicate that Indy would need to pay the bonus before they can even entertain the option of trading him.
But if the bonus hits after trades are allowed, then yes, that makes sense. And I have to imagine a restructuring of the contract would be needed to make the trade even remotely reasonable to another team.
And I’m constantly surprised at how hard it is to find key date information for the NFL season, even on nfl.com… I can’t seem to find when the actual 2012 season actually starts…
Instead of paying 28Mil bonus and giving up picks, we could wait for cut or them to pay bonus
we could wait draft more talent and pay him (with our low payroll and all) if the D looks like it does and the O is setup for him to come right in and fly we will offer the most attractive place not to mention our “weak” division.
One thing you left out of this debate is the age of the QB's in question.
Manning – 35 (36 in March)
Palmer – 31 (32 at the end of the month)
Cassel – 29 (30 in May)
You don’t drop 28-mil a year plus high/numerous draft picks for a 36 year old QB coming off of neck surgery. Even as great as Manning has been in the past.
I agree. See my post above.
"If ifs mattered, everyone would be undefeated." Enite
Why would Manning redo his contract in order to get traded?
That makes absolutely no sense at all. He knows the Colts have to pay him or release him and if he goes somewhere, he’ll probably want a say in where he goes. Not only that but why would he want to cost his new team two valuable picks unnecesarily? So restructuring saves his old team that he won’t care about 28M$ and will cost his new team multiple picks? No way he’s restructuring when he’s in a position of strength.
"Give them nothing! But take from them everything!"
Exactly
All this talk about trading Manning is hot air. The bonus is due March 1, and they can’t legally even discuss trading him until after that is paid. Manning might delay that bonus if he isn’t cleared to practice yet, but only if he believes they’ll eventually pay it. No way he delays it or reworks his deal any other way so they can auction him off.
sooner or later, God'll cut you down...
Dude's made plenty of money
I agree that in the event IND wanting to move on picking where he goes will matter to him more than money.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)
Flipside of this discussion.
If they keep Manning and trade luck what do you give up to move up to #1. I’d say it will take picks but we also have one hell of a bargaining chip in Carr and with Carr wanting #1 CB pay and Indy needing a #1 CB more then any other position on that defense there might be something there.
"Give them nothing! But take from them everything!"
I can't see any way that they Choose Manning over Luck.
"If ifs mattered, everyone would be undefeated." Enite
If they keep Manning, they might not even draft Luck.
"If ifs mattered, everyone would be undefeated." Enite
But they will still trade the pick rather than bypass Luck entirely...
sooner or later, God'll cut you down...
I got thinking about that this morning...
Cleveland has two firsts this year, and one of them is likely top 10. It would be hard to outbid them if they’re willing to trade up…
I think that they could get two 1sts and a 2nd even if they stay in the top 10, and more if they drop farther. If Cleveland offers two 1sts this year (one of them top 10) and a 2 next year, the next best offer would likely be two 1sts (one this year and one next) and a 2 or more this year, and Cleveland wins. Of course this is assuming Cleveland bails on McCoy, but for Luck that doesn’t seem like much of a jump.
Indy could still get Barkley or RG3 if they want insurance for Manning and a QBotf under contract, or rebuild the team around him with double 1sts this year and double 2nds next if they are confident in Peyton.
sooner or later, God'll cut you down...
by nmchief on Dec 8, 2011 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Damn.. I didnt even think of that...
This could all be for not because of Cleveland.. And they have expressed that they dont think Colt McCoy is thier QBOTF…
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
Hmm, do you think maybe KC tries to take advantage of that?
Colt McCoy isn’t a franchise guy…yet. But he is certainly a step or two (or 50) above Palko. He has the experience edge over Stanzi. He has arm strength over Cassel. Maybe that is exactly the kind of prospect that Jim Zorn would be looking for?
The Browns could very well be on the lookout for a 4-3 DT/3-4 DE like Glenn Dorsey.
Trade: Dorsey for McCoy?
"You can't be fat and fast too; so lift, run, diet, and work." ~ Hank Stram
Keep in mind that Indy DOES NOT have to trade Manning.
Even if they decide to draft Luck (which is very likely).
1. The Colts have already prepared this team for the Peyton Manning deal. They had already figured out the important financial details moving forward. At worst, they take a hit from the signing bonus…that they were already prepared to take.
2. Andrew Luck doesn’t have to start his first year. The rookie wage scale has changed that aspect of the draft. Luck learning from Manning (his mentor) for a season or two is about as ideal a situation as you could ask for.
3. The Colts completely control the market on Manning. He’s on a long-term contract. That means teams will have to offer what the Colts WANT for him, not necessarily what his value is. That is the same thing the Bengals did with Palmer.
4. Peyton may very well restructure his contract. Especially when you consider his current injury situation. He may shave a couple years off of his career to protect his long-term health. He’s 35 which means playing only 3 years instead of the 5 in his contract.
"You can't be fat and fast too; so lift, run, diet, and work." ~ Hank Stram
by citadelchief on Dec 8, 2011 6:05 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
*3 years instead of the 5 in his contract would still put him at 38.
A pretty common retirement age.
"You can't be fat and fast too; so lift, run, diet, and work." ~ Hank Stram
all of this ^^^ makes perfect sense, and it's what I've been thinking all along ...
Manning and the Colts agree to a new and restructured (less pay) contract, the Colts get Luck anyway, Luck learns from one of the very best of all time (and gets more playing time than Ricky Stanzi, guaranteed) as he moves slowly into the starting position over a year or so …
… Manning eases into the role of mentor-to-backup-to-coach over a few years and is the face of the franchise for years to come (imagine Luck having a bad day in 5 years, Manning comes in off the bench and sparks a 4th quarter comeback to win the game, much as George Blanda did for years with the Raiders)
Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
Save the draft picks to trade up to get Luck or Barkley
Kc fans,have a phobia of drafting a qb in the 1st round.It needs a name, any suggestions?We don’t need a 36 year old QB coming off of 3 neck surgeries.We need to draft our own Peyton Manning for the future
In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti
by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 8, 2011 10:36 PM CST reply actions
We need to draft our own Peyton Manning for the future
If it were only that easy
Twitter: RaiderHater86
you are never going to unless you try
In nomeni parti et fili spiritus sancti
by saints_chiefsfan1979 on Dec 8, 2011 11:50 PM CST up reply actions
No Way
We don`t want Payton in K.C.. He would cost to much and is on the down side of his career. Before you know it, he will be 36 years old. We need to build our team through the draft with youth.
by Arrow Head Addict on Dec 9, 2011 12:27 AM CST reply actions
If Peyton can be had in FA, we have to at least be in the running
With another solid draft next year (add a couple O-:Linemen and a stud ILB like Don’ta Hightower) and we are really close to something great. With Moeaki, Berry, and Charles back next year, we automatically upgrade greatly on offense and defense.
What better mentor for Ricky Stanzi to have than one of the best to ever play the game. This is a no-lose situation, IMO.
Nicknames I have coined:
Jamaal Charles = 'Haley's Comet'
Shaun Smith = 'Big Nasty'
Kelly Gregg = 'Old Gregg'
By the time Peyton retires, Stanzi would be ready to take over and Cassel would be an afterthought
Nicknames I have coined:
Jamaal Charles = 'Haley's Comet'
Shaun Smith = 'Big Nasty'
Kelly Gregg = 'Old Gregg'
Cowher and Manning?
Wow. It could happen too…
"The greater the struggle, the more glorious the triumph"
Eric Berry counted to infinity -- twice.
Twitter: @Mr_Hoosier
I can't see Cowher happening unless Pioli is sent packing with Haley.
Cowher wants to go somewhere he has complete control. If I could wager on it my money would be on Miami or San Diego(god forbid).
"Give them nothing! But take from them everything!"
Or if Indy wants to just get crazy, and realizes their need for a rebuild
Manning has been the face of that franchise for ages. If he’s healthy and cleared to play, he’s too valuable – not just in terms of draft picks, but also tickets sold and jerseys / etc (not to mention instant super bowl contender).
Trade down from the #1 spot into the 5-10 range. It’ll fetch a lot of picks.
Then trade down again. More picks. All still pretty high.
Now they can shore up their CB woes, O Line as well as D Line between this year and next year’s draft. Take a project QB with limited short term expected payoff, but a high ceiling. Let him sit behind Pey-Pey for a few seasons.
The abundance of picks they’d get from two trade downs could shore up a LOT of holes on that team. And they need it. In this scenario, they’d be heavily stocked for the 2012 and 2013 drafts, both of which look to be pretty solid draft classes.
That team is in a shambles without Manning. With him back (assuming his health cooperates) – they’re still in the playoff hunt every season, as well as building a solid young core of players so they can still be competitive in a few years when he’s done, never really missing a beat as far as competitive seasons go.
Maybe it’s a crackpot theory. But from my armchair here at Armchair GM Central, it looks like an option.
Foxtrot Alpha November - Sierra Hotel Oscar Tango!
What I think would make sense there is that first trade down to 5-10 range.
They would still have a very good shot at Barkley or RGIII. And if they miss out on both of them, then trade back again. They would still be looking at Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill with the 33rd pick. Jones or Tannehill learning the game from Peyton Manning for 2-3 years? I’d be just fine with that if I were Indy.
If a trade happens with Indy, I don’t think KC gets the first shot at it. Washington or Miami trying to jump in front of each other to get the QB they want is the most likely. Considering Miaimi may very well be a QB short of being contenders and Dan Snyder’s willingness to buy into hype, I would have to put them at the front of any trade up rumors.
"You can't be fat and fast too; so lift, run, diet, and work." ~ Hank Stram
by citadelchief on Dec 10, 2011 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
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