I wanted to look at the scenarios where the Chiefs make the playoffs and still lose to the Green Bay Packers. I figured others might be interested so I decided to make this a fanpost.

First off lets look at the Division tie breakers (From Wikipedia):

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (games played against the same opponents).
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory (the combined won-lost-tied percentage of all the teams that a club has defeated).
6. Strength of schedule (the combined won-lost-tied percentage of all the teams that a club has played against).
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin Toss

Currently the Broncos sit at 7-5 and 3-2 in the division

In this scenario we assume that the Chiefs win every game but the Green Bay game

The Chiefs would have a division record of 4-2 and Broncos would have a record of 3-3

The Chiefs would go to the playoffs against the Broncos if they lost 3 out of the next 4 games (including the Chiefs)

I think the Broncos losing 3 out of their next 4 is almost more likely than the Chiefs winning 3 of their next 4, but anything is possible with the defense playing lights out.

Now we have the Raiders to look at:

Currently the Raiders sit at 7-5 and 2-2 in the division

In this scenario we assume that the Chiefs win every game but the Green Bay game.

The Chiefs would have a division record of 4-2 and the Raiders would be 2-3 after the Chiefs game and headed to San Diego.

If the Raiders lost to the Packers and Lions and beat the Chargers the Chiefs would still go to the playoffs in this scenario.

Even with a lost to the Packers the Chiefs have a chance to make the playoffs. Each scenario isn't that far fetched. Below is a list of common opponents between the teams (I thought this would play a factor in the decision but didn't if we won 3 of the next 4. I included because I thought it was interesting).

Common Games between the Chief and Broncos are:

Vikings (Both Team Won)

Dolphins (Broncos Won Chiefs Lost)

Bears (Chiefs Won and Broncos haven't played yet)

Patriots (Chiefs Lost and Broncos haven't played yet)

Bills (Chiefs lost and Broncos haven't played yet) Packers (Broncos Lost and Chiefs haven't played yet)

Lions (Both Lost)

Jets (Broncos won and Chiefs haven't played yet)

Currently the Chiefs record in common games is 2-4 with 2 games left to play

Currently the Broncos record in common games is 3-2 with 3 games left to play

Common game between the Chiefs and Raider:

Bills (Both Lost)

Jets (Raiders Win Chiefs haven't played)

Patriots (Both lost) Vikings (Both Win)

Bears (Both Win) Dolphins (Both Lost)

Packers (Both teams haven't played)

Lions (Chiefs Lost Raiders haven't played)

Currently the Chiefs record in common games is 2-4 with 2 games left to play

Currently the Raiders record in common games is 3-3 with 2 games left to play