It is starting to look like we won’t get a shot at one of the top QB’s in April’s draft. Furthermore, the Chiefs will be good enough to draft in the bottom third of the draft in the forseeable future, so drafting a franchise QB would appear to be a moot point. What are the ramifications of not having a franchise-level QB?
I did a little research. I took a look at the last twenty Super Bowl QB’s, both winners and losers. I tried to see just how important a top tier QB is to a franchise. Here’s what I found out: 65% of the Super Bowl teams had generally recognized “good” QB’s:
Aikman Young Farve
Elway Brady Roethlisberger
Warner Kelly P. Manning
E. Manning Brees Rogers
15% of the winning Super Bowl teams had average QB’s: Rypien, Dilfer, Johnson. 55% of the losing teams had average QB’s: Humphries, O’Donnell, Bledsole, Chandler, McNair, Collins, Hasselbeck, Griese (Jr.), Gannon, Delhomme, and McNabb (other losing QB’s were from the list of “good” QB’s). 85% of the Super Bowl champions had “good” QB’s (from the list above). Another key stat is the fact that no average QB played in more than one Super Bowl. Conversely, other than possibly Cutler or Ryan, there are no current “good” QB’s who haven’t been in a Super Bowl. The jury is still out on Cutler, and Ryan isn’t yet at his prime. Someone will probably suggest that my numbers don’t add up. If you are trying to check my math, remember that many of the recent Super Bowls featured “good” QB’s on each team. What conclusions can be drawn from this data? The thing that jumps out at me is that teams who win consistently have “good” QB’s. It is possible for a team with an average QB to get to the Super Bowl, but it is a “one & done” thing. Obviously, more research is called for. How about draft positon for “good’ QB’s over the past 20 years? Also, average ability grades for other positions on Super Bowl teams.
Now, for the Chiefs’ situation; the question is, how should we classify Cassel? As of yet, I’ve seen no evidence justifying classifying him as a “good” QB. True, he’s gotten precious help only from Weiss and, now, Zorn. How much more time do we give him to become a “good” QB? I would suggest that, at best, he gets one more year. He’s got the receivers he needs. The running game could be better. He could use a RT. An OC would also be helpful. Nevertheless, it is approaching “put up or sit down” time, unless Orton lights it up in the next four games. Then, it’s just “sit down” time for Cassel.
I’m going to throw in one tenuously related item. Fresno State U. just fired long-time football coach Pat Hill. FSU has a good looking soph QB named Derek Carr (as in David Carr). David Carr has said publically that his little brother is much further along than he was at that stage of his career. Now, I doubt that Derek will choose to come out after his soph season, but it would be wise for the Chiefs’ brain trust to keep an eye on things in Fresno. If he did choose to come out, he’d be a very good gamble for a 3rd or 4th round pick.