The Chiefs Need A QB, But Can They Get One? Week 17 Edition

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 12:39 PM CST

This is the third of a series of articles analyzing the Chiefs’ prospects for drafting a QB in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. The most significant news since the last article is that Matt Barkley returning to college, reducing the top QB prospects list to three: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Landry Jones. Bob Stoops has also publicly stated that he thinks Landry Jones will return to OU, which would reduce our current list of elite QB prospects to two.

I recommend you review the previous articles before reading this one: Part 1, Part 2.

Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB

The updated top 16 (which currently represents all teams in the league below .500) draft order is below. We include strength of schedule because it's the first tiebreaker.

Pick #	Team	W	L	SOS
1	Colts	2	13	0.551
2	Rams	2	13	0.573
3	Vikings	3	12	0.564
4	Browns	4	11	0.516
5	Jaguars	4	11	0.529
6	Buccaneers	4	11	0.547
7	Redskins	5	10	0.476
8	Dolphins	5	10	0.511
9	Panthers	6	9	0.480
10	Bills	6	9	0.498
11	Chiefs	6	9	0.516
12	Cardinals	7	8	0.476
13	Eagles	7	8	0.498
14	Seahawks	7	8	0.507
15	Chargers	7	8	0.516
16	Bears	7	8	0.556

The same four teams with a QB need and no recent expenditures on one remain ahead of us (Colts, Browns, Redskins and Dolphins). With one week left, there's a chance we could end up tied with Miami and Washington in terms of record, but we'd likely pick after them because of their weaker strength of schedules. We remain one game ahead of Seattle. Chicago is new to this list, but they're a non-factor because they have Cutler.

As mentioned above, Matt Barkley is officially out of the draft. Therefore, assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's become less likely that we'd get any of the top three.

Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round

We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 10 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round.

Year	Top10	Top 32
2011	3	4
2010	1	2
2009	2	3
2008	1	2
2007	1	2
2006	2	3
2005	1	3
2004	2	4
2003	2	4
2002	1	3

Updated trends:

On average, only 2 QBs are taken in the first 10 picks.
In nine of the past ten drafts, at least one of the top three QBs was available at pick 11.
In five of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top three QBs were available at pick 11.

Our historical odds have slightly worsened since the last article both because we've slipped back one draft slot and because the QB list has shortened. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round. Last year's draft was the exception as the three top prospects were gone by the 11th pick.

Will the Chiefs Take a QB?

Two weeks ago, Kyle Orton showed his potential by efficiently distributing the ball to beat the Packers. Last week, Orton showed his flaws with frustrating red zone play and boneheaded interceptions against the Raiders. Simply put, this tale of two Ortons is the reason he's been a journeyman QB for seven years.

To sum up, Orton isn't consistent, we don't know who our coach will be, the QB list has narrowed, and besides the rumor that Pioli is comfortable moving forward with Cassel, we don't really know how he feels about going into next season with Cassel/Orton/Stanzi. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say expect a QB in a later round, but who knows? Last time a Pioli draft rumor was leaked it was that he didn't feel comfortable taking a safety at the 5 pick, and then we took Eric Berry.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Screw drafting a QB...

unless you can get Luck or RGIII…

DREW BREES is a free agent after this year… Pioli work some magic…

We won’t do either because there won’t be a quality QB when we draft in the first round and the Saints will never let Brees go…

Pioli please don’t stretch for a player/QB! Get the best available at whatever position… we need depth at every position…

by DT58 in NJ on Dec 27, 2011 1:33 PM CST reply actions

Maybe this is some old school dislike, but I still remember Brees in is SD days.

It’d be too weird for me if the Chiefs signed him. Sure, he is a great QB, but… Yeah. I agree on going for the best player available, though.

by ChiefsNfl on Dec 27, 2011 3:42 PM CST up reply actions

I don't think Brees is a realistic target

Is he an unrestricted FA? I just can’t imagine the Saints wouldn’t sign him to a long-term contract. He’s only 32 and shows no signs of slowing down.

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 4:33 PM CST up reply actions

There is this thing called the franchise tag

So there is a 0% chance Brees hits the open market.

I don’t think it is likely, but if you want to dream about a vet QB, Peyton is the guy to fantasize about.

by kcsno56 on Dec 28, 2011 9:37 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed

by Wait and See on Dec 28, 2011 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

Likely need to move up to 6 (or maybe 5) to get RG3?

It’s doable. Only 5-6 spots. What’ll that cost? Two firsts and a Dorsey?

We’ll see where we’ll definitely be picking from in about a week.

"saints_chiefsfan1979 is a genius" - yes, I lost a bet.

by Tomahawk29 on Dec 27, 2011 1:48 PM CST reply actions

Ahead of Washington at the least

Is my guess. So yes, 6. I think Cleveland might pull off a blockbuster moving back (as they’ve been doing lately) with a Miami or someone else desperate for a new “face of the franchise”.

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 4:34 PM CST up reply actions

I think you'll need to get to 2 or 3

The Rams and or Vikes will trade back.

With only two elite QB’s in this draft, they aren’t going to fall to 5 or 6, imo.

by kcsno56 on Dec 28, 2011 9:38 AM CST up reply actions

agreed

by stagdsp on Dec 28, 2011 1:28 PM CST up reply actions

MUST trade up

probably with MIN. I don’t want to hear it will be too expensive either. RG3 has franchise potential. NO TEAM has EVER regretted paying whatever they paid to get a franchise QB that gives them a shot at a SB any given year. Top end QBs routinely take teams far less talented than the chiefs are now deep into the playoffs. IND is exhibit A.

by SillyHatDay on Dec 27, 2011 1:57 PM CST reply actions

wonder if any team has ever regretted moving up and paying whatever it took to get a franchise QB who DIDN'T work out as expected?

because you can give away the ranch and mortgage the future on a guy but that doesn’t GUARANTEE that he’ll actually BE that guy that you want him to be, or produce the wins that you want and “expect” and certainly hope for

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by upamtn on Dec 27, 2011 3:08 PM CST up reply actions

atleast now with the salary scale if you miss on a QB in the top of the draft you aren't out $50 million in guaranteed money as you were in the pre 2011 days

by Chiefs_KC on Dec 27, 2011 4:05 PM CST up reply actions

true but

we would still be out ALL the draft picks and players we had to give up to move up to draft that guy

by banshee_01 on Dec 27, 2011 4:32 PM CST up reply actions

The picks are a bigger deal

There are so many ways to structure contracts; I can’t remember the last time I actually heard of money being a problem for any franchise.

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 4:38 PM CST up reply actions

I generally agree with this logic BUT...

I’m not qualified to judge QBs as I’ve not watched enough tape or done extensive comparisons. Pioli has to believe Griffin or Luck are tremendously better than the next available option (Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, Landry Jones if he goes to the draft).

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 4:37 PM CST up reply actions

if Pioli is "comfortable" in moving forward with Matt Cassel then he has a bigger ego than even Jason Whitlock could imagine

by upamtn on Dec 27, 2011 3:06 PM CST reply actions 6 recs

Needs to be greened.

by Mr.Pibbs on Dec 27, 2011 4:33 PM CST up reply actions

and done

Men succeed when they realize that their failures are the preparation for their victories.

by KingChief on Dec 27, 2011 4:38 PM CST up reply actions

I really don't think it's an ego issue

I think he’s trying to build a complete team and genuinely thinks with good defense, good protection, good receiving weapons and a good running game, Cassel can succeed. I’m not convinced this formula can’t work, though I do believe a franchise QB would improve us tremendously (more than an upgrade at any other position in fact, as is the premise of this article).

I also think there’s a good chance we could go into next season without drafting a first round QB even if we have the opportunity because Pioli will want to see Cassel with a new coach/OC who’s better at using him and runs the team more effectively.

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 4:50 PM CST up reply actions

Its already shown that it can't and will not work.

Cassel is not worth any more gambling-on. Its time to MOVE ON.

by Mr.Pibbs on Dec 27, 2011 9:00 PM CST up reply actions

When was it shown that that won't work?

The closest example we’ve had was 2010 and we won the division. 2009 was a growth year in which we learned nothing and 2011 was chock full of injuries.

If Pioli really didn’t like the way Haley coached, he could easily reason with Hunt and himself that they should give Cassel one year under a new coach before spending serious currency (i.e., a high first rounder or moving up in the first).

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 10:33 PM CST up reply actions

I'm still wait-and-see, because I like to see a complete team, and this team isn't yet complete.

They’re close enough to definitely start thinking about upgrading the QB position, though. Orton’s not mobile enough if you don’t give him time. Cassel’s not particularly “aware,” despite having a pretty good physical toolkit. I have a hard time believing, based on what I’ve seen, that this team can’t do pretty good with a good all-around QB.

This mightn’t be popular, but I think Donovan McNabb would be THRILLED to play for a team with as much going for it as the Chiefs, especially if they hire somebody like Nicks, or draft Decastro, and make some noise at RT. For all our hand-wringing over OL, the unit they have now can do more than the Vikes’ O-Line, by far. But if not McNabb, then I think a more or less open competition could give them something significantly better than what they are putting on the field, at present.

would of ≠ would've

by hmills110 on Dec 27, 2011 10:46 PM CST up reply actions

To be honest

at this point in his career, I think Donovan McNabb would be thrilled to play for anyone

KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round

by trentchiefsfan on Dec 28, 2011 7:00 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed

He’s sitting at home, while the Bears and Texans were desperate for a FA QB.

That says a ton about McNabb, and what the NFL thinks of him.

by kcsno56 on Dec 28, 2011 9:42 AM CST up reply actions

with a good defense, good protection, good recieving options and good running game RG3 or Schaub or Orton or Dalton look awesome

yet Cassel looks above average at best in that scenario. He is NOT a franchise QB

KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round

by trentchiefsfan on Dec 27, 2011 9:45 PM CST up reply actions

You've been playing to the masses a lot lately

by kcsno56 on Dec 28, 2011 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

all this talk of RG3 and he hasn't declared yet and is some serious doubts he will or am

I missing something. Right now it’s Luck or tuff titty right? I understand the want of a Big Time QB, but not all sure that I want to spend the future on RG3, who is likely to get mangled in the pro’s and already has concussion concerns. Sure he is a good lookin young prospect, but like timmy tebow he ran a bunch when I saw him play and that spells disaster for injury possibilities. So as far as I’m concerned the focus should be on Luck if we were to trade up and go for a QB, as unlikely as that is.

by dubld on Dec 27, 2011 4:55 PM CST reply actions

I believe all four of them are underclassmen

The fact that these four are considered the top prospects is a testament to how good they are and how mediocre (bad?) the senior QBs are.

Griffin’s family has talked to agents. He’s more likely than Luck to stay in college, but he’s finished his undergrad degree (is pursuing a Masters) and Baylor isn’t going anywhere.

As far as injury history, I only found record of one concussion and it only knocked him out of that game; he was back starting the next week.

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 5:06 PM CST up reply actions

Kellen Moore

Undersized and weak conference BUT, the two stats that seem to predict pro success more than any measurable are completion percentage and games started. BTW he has won 50 games as a starting QB, a record. 142-29 TD to INT ratio. 4 year starter. I am concerned about his size and am not saying he’s worth a first rounder, but 2nd or 3rd round would be good value for a really good player

"Make the most of yourself, for that is all there is of you" Ralph Waldo Emerson

by Dr Paine on Dec 27, 2011 9:03 PM CST reply actions

Have him play against the Pac 12, Big 12 of SEC and he looks more like a 7th/UDFA

He is vastly overated.

KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round

by trentchiefsfan on Dec 27, 2011 9:42 PM CST up reply actions

or* SEC

KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round

by trentchiefsfan on Dec 28, 2011 7:01 AM CST up reply actions

Arm strength and speed of release are my concerns

From the tape I’ve watched of him, he doesn’t always throw with a lot of zip and he winds up, though he’s looked better this year. The great thing about him (vs. Tannehill for example) is that there’s a ton of tape, so they’ll have plenty of material to help them decide. I’d be happy with a flyer on him in a later round, ideally no earlier than third.

This is really a great year for a non-first round QB (which might fit perfectly with Pioli’s desire to trade down as much as possible): Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Kellen Moore (definitely not in that order). Foles is my current favorite of that group: 6’5", 240 lb, 3 year starter with an increasing completion percentage every year that I think we could get in the 2nd round. There was some buzz about him before Luck hit the scene.

by Wait and See on Dec 27, 2011 10:29 PM CST up reply actions

I like the Wait and See.

I think it’s very tough to do, but a big key to developing your own QB is building an all-around team that plays smart. I thought Pioli was slow to get after OL, but it sure looks like one new guy plus another new guy in the wings, and they’re at least top 10, maybe top 5, if Muir can work some magic.

would of ≠ would've

by hmills110 on Dec 27, 2011 10:51 PM CST up reply actions

The Kansas City Chiefs are comfortable moving forward and staying the course with Matt Cassel, is...

a smoke screen. Like saying, “Taking a safety with the 5th overall pick is to risky with the other needs our team has.”

The first overall pick will either be: a quarterback, a right offensive tackle, or a running back…

Only one of those would make me happy…A Quarterback. We can address offensive line in later rounds and through free agency.

Whoever our new coach is will want ‘his guy’ at quarterback!!!

*Follow me @ChiefsatWar (Twitter)

Clark Hunt & Pioli, get some KING KONG BALLS and move up to draft a QB in the 1st RD of the 2012 NFL Draft: RG3 or Luck.

by ChiefsatWar on Dec 28, 2011 9:54 AM CST reply actions

RB would shock me

Unless we dropped back first for an extra pick and still managed to land Trent Richardson. He’s good enough that if the worst case scenario happens and Charles can’t come back, we could still quickly return to having one of the best running games in the league.

I honestly don’t think our first round pick is as straightforward as people are making it out to be simply because I think Pioli is going to try to trade back like crazy this year.

Regarding new coach and wanting “his” QB, 1) coaches don’t get to pick their personnel unless they have serious chops like Cowher, who I don’t think we’re going to get, 2) you’re assuming he won’t trust Pioli’s reasoning, 3) you’re further assuming he won’t be comfortable with Cassel, Stanzi and possibly Orton.

by Wait and See on Dec 28, 2011 10:11 AM CST up reply actions