This is the third of a series of articles analyzing the Chiefs’ prospects for drafting a QB in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. The most significant news since the last article is that Matt Barkley returning to college, reducing the top QB prospects list to three: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Landry Jones. Bob Stoops has also publicly stated that he thinks Landry Jones will return to OU, which would reduce our current list of elite QB prospects to two.
Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB
The updated top 16 (which currently represents all teams in the league below .500) draft order is below. We include strength of schedule because it's the first tiebreaker.
The same four teams with a QB need and no recent expenditures on one remain ahead of us (Colts, Browns, Redskins and Dolphins). With one week left, there's a chance we could end up tied with Miami and Washington in terms of record, but we'd likely pick after them because of their weaker strength of schedules. We remain one game ahead of Seattle. Chicago is new to this list, but they're a non-factor because they have Cutler.
As mentioned above, Matt Barkley is officially out of the draft. Therefore, assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's become less likely that we'd get any of the top three.
Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round
We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 10 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round.
- On average, only 2 QBs are taken in the first 10 picks.
- In nine of the past ten drafts, at least one of the top three QBs was available at pick 11.
- In five of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top three QBs were available at pick 11.
Our historical odds have slightly worsened since the last article both because we've slipped back one draft slot and because the QB list has shortened. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round. Last year's draft was the exception as the three top prospects were gone by the 11th pick.
Will the Chiefs Take a QB?
Two weeks ago, Kyle Orton showed his potential by efficiently distributing the ball to beat the Packers. Last week, Orton showed his flaws with frustrating red zone play and boneheaded interceptions against the Raiders. Simply put, this tale of two Ortons is the reason he's been a journeyman QB for seven years.
To sum up, Orton isn't consistent, we don't know who our coach will be, the QB list has narrowed, and besides the rumor that Pioli is comfortable moving forward with Cassel, we don't really know how he feels about going into next season with Cassel/Orton/Stanzi. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say expect a QB in a later round, but who knows? Last time a Pioli draft rumor was leaked it was that he didn't feel comfortable taking a safety at the 5 pick, and then we took Eric Berry.