This article is an update to our QB draft analysis article from last week. The premise is the same:
An effective QB would improve the Chiefs more than an upgrade at any other position. There are four QBs expected to enter the upcoming draft that are considered good enough to start in their first season: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, and Landry Jones. This article, which was co-written by a friend, examines the likelihood of one of those players being available at the Chiefs draft slot.
The same disclaimers also apply:
- The draft order will likely change. For example, how will the Chiefs perform under Crennel?
- The QBs have yet to be fully analyzed, which could insert new players into the mix or cause one of the top 4 to nosedive.
Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB
The updated top 15 draft order is below. We include strength of schedule below because it's the first tiebreaker. Carolina has beaten Washington head to head and they're in the same conference, so Washington should get to pick first.
Not much has changed from last week. The same four teams with a QB need and no recent expenditures on one remain ahead of us (Colts, Redskins, Browns and Dolphins). However, the Seahawks won last week and we lost, so we've increased separation on them from one draft slot to four.
Therefore, just like last week, assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's unlikely we'd get any of the top four. The two teams most likely to trade up, Seattle and Denver, remain the same. Tarvaris Jackson continues his mediocre play but can't claim the same lack of playmakers that could give Colt McCoy another year as the starter in Cleveland (and the Chiefs a shot at the fourth rated QB).
Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round
We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 9 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round.
|Year||Top 9||Top 32|
- On average, just over 1 QB is taken in the first 9 picks.
- In all of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top four QBs were available at pick 10.
- In six of the past ten drafts, at least three of the top four QBs were available at pick 10.
This situation is much improved from last week. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round. In fact, even in last year's draft, when four QBs were taken in the top 12, two of them were available at the tenth pick. In this year's draft that would translate to Landry Jones and either Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley being available.
Will the Chiefs Take a QB?
Much of what we thought we knew is up in the air with the coaching change. First, if Stanzi gets to play, which seemed unlikely under Haley, and performs well, the Chiefs could be satisfied going into camp with Cassel, Stanzi, a later-round QB pick and/or Orton. Second, a highly touted coach like Cowher or Fisher could demand a high QB pick as a condition for taking the head coaching job. Third, there have been rumors that Pioli is comfortable with Cassel, which could cause him to skip picking a QB at all (I'd assume in that situation he'd try to finagle a huge trade back with a team that wanted a QB before Seattle or Buffalo get to pick).
Our current draft slot will almost definitely allow us to get a QB, but trying to decipher Pioli's intentions is almost impossible. So if you want us to take a QB, just take solace in the fact that historical trends make it look like we'll have a shot at a top-rated prospect.