Did We Catch a Steal?

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 8:42 AM CST

So as I started looking at my Fantasy Roster (in the championships!) I looked at my QB situation and just sighed because I have to start Sanchez (Schaub was Qb1). With injuries plaguing my team, honestly I'm not sure how I pulled off being in the championship currently holding onto third. I started crunching some numbers as I always do and then I got fed up with looking at Sanchez's mug and decided to head over here to AP and read some posts. Which lead me to a different number crunch amongst QB's now prior to a draft situation. Where do a few people stand in this league based purely on numbers w/o considering the matchups or the W vs L ratio. What does this say (if anything) about Kyle Orton and our future draft.

I found it interesting and wanted to share the numbers; plus I wanted to gain some of y'alls insight and opinions on the matter. I picked Cassel, a backup, a middle of the road, an elite and Orton. Here's the numbers.

Our QB Cassel: 9 games

TD's 10: averaging .9 PG. Int's 9: averaging 1.0 PG. Fmb's 5: averaging .45 PG. Total Yards 1713 averaging 190.3 yards PG.

Miami back up Matt Moore: 7 games

TD's 8: averaging 1.1 PG. Int's 5: averaging .7 PG. Fmb's 9: averaging +1 PG. Total Yards: 1607 averaging 200.87

(reverse the pick to fumble numbers on these guys and it's virtually the same, except Moore has a higher yardage total. Hmmm. OL problems in KC? Cassel? or both?)

Jets QB (shudder) Mark Sanchez: 11 games

TD's 17: averaging 1.5 PG. Int's 11: averaging 1 PG. Fmbl's 7: avg .63 PG. Total Yards: 2513 averaging 229.5 PG.

(He has 4 games on Moore with only an average of 29.5 yards higher, 2 fewer fumbles, and 6 more interceptions)

Elite Pats Tom Brady: 11 games

TD's 29: averaging 2.6 PG. Int's 9: averaging .93 PG. Fmbl's 4: averaging .36 PG. Total yards 3627: averaging 329 PG.

(There's just no comparison here)

Who the Hell knows…Kyle Orton: 4.5 games

TD's 6: averaging 1.3 PG. Int's 7: averaging 1.75 PG. Fmbls 2: averaging .5 PG. Total yards 979: averaging 244.5 PG.

(I like the yardage to TD ratio but good god the turnover's are high)

*****

With that boring number stuff I like to do there's something here that is just absolutely undeniable. Brady is an Android. Moore is getting his feet about him and improves each week. Sanchez is par for the course. Cassel has the worst yardage by far. Orton is an unknown factor going forward. Denver hated the guy and drank too much Tebow Kool-Aid creating mania like symptoms. But what if he'd had the support of his team bi-proxi his city? Hadn't been on the block to Miami with a fall out deal? Is an Orton a leader underneath it all? Will our O-Line and WR core help this dude out?

I don't know, but numbers are numbers and tell quite the story on their own. Orton in comparison;

He has a better TD average than: Cassel and Moore

His Interceptions: Higher than all of them. (cringe)

Fumbles: Better than Moore and Sanchez (Cassel barely squeaked out of this one)

Yards Averaged: Better than Moore, Cassel and yes, Sanchez.

So, Chiefs fans since the draft is not yet upon us…how do we really feel about Orton with his 4.5 game totals and did we potentially get a steal off the waiver? Thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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A steal; maybe- cheap replacement

I want orton under center- if he can’t hack it
Then Stanzi the last 2-3 games

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Nov 30, 2011 8:47 AM CST via mobile reply actions

It's also worth noting that Orton's numbers this year were put up against not-terrible to good defenses.

In order starting with week 1:

OAK
CIN
TEN
GB
SD

Foxtrot Alpha November - Sierra Hotel Oscar Tango!

by TRSChief on Nov 30, 2011 9:04 AM CST reply actions

Their pass rush is still very good with that D Line though.

They generate a lot of QB pressure.

So for the purposes of looking at a QB, it’s a not-terrible D.

But yeah their secondary has sort of melted after losing scrabble.

Foxtrot Alpha November - Sierra Hotel Oscar Tango!

by TRSChief on Nov 30, 2011 10:06 AM CST up reply actions

The good: Kyle isn’t usually such a turnover machine.

The bad: Kyle probably lost three games for the Broncos due to his turnovers.

Against the Raiders, he threw a pick in Oakland territory and also lost a phantom fumble near the redzone later in the game (turned into 7 for Oakland instead of points for Denver). Broncos only lost by three. Then we lost 14-17 to the Titans where Orton threw about 175 yards and two picks (one of which was in Titans territory with under two minutes left to play). Orton threw three picks against Green Bay (including a pick-six) to ensure we never had a shot in the game. Then against San Diego Orton threw for less than 50 yards and an interception and had the Broncos down by 13 before getting pulled for Tebow. Tim was able to rally back, but ultimately came up one completion short of the game winning TD from the 35ish yard line. Orton’s deficit was just a little too much to come back from in only one-half.

Orton isn’t usually turnover prone, but his turnovers cost the Broncos three victories in most opinions.

In the locker room after their 16-13 victory over the Chargers on Sunday, the Broncos were screaming like teenage girls at a Justin Bieber concert. ~Woody Paige.

by Rodney A on Nov 30, 2011 7:18 PM CST up reply actions

But you make it sound as if Orton was the sole reason the Broncos lost

Against Oakland you lost 23-20 . Orton brought you to within 3 with 4 minutes left and the coach didnt try a onside and the Raiders picked up multiple first downs and ran the clock out .

Against the Titans it was 14-10 and you went went for it on 4th and goal in the 4th and they stuff it instead of taking the fg. The Titans eventually go 95 yards in the 4th and and you lose 17-14 .Orton threw pick at the end of the game but in that situation you shouldnt have been going for a comeback because the game shouldve been tied and Orton when he had threw the pick had driven you well into fg range

Against GB you were down two scores early in the first half and Orton got you back to 21-17 with 3 minutes to go in the first half . The defense gave up a score they got the ball first and they scored again . Orton the first time you touch the ball in the second lead a drive down the field and hits the td who runs it inside the ten and then fumbles . Thats takes it from 21-17 to 42 to 17 . Those two picks Orton threw after that are kinda exaggerated at this point

Against SD it was 13-10 SD at one point in the first half and the defense had some mental errors that gave up 10 points to SD

Orton made some mistakes but its amazing how its painted as if no one else made mistakes in those games

It seems to me that some of the mental errors that your defense was making they simply stopped making . If I checked the play by play I would probably see a huge drop in the number of penalties and big plays that Broncos defense have been given up .

Its hard to win with turnovers but there especially early were a lot of good qbs who was turning the ball in the craziest ways . I saw a highlight where Brian Urlacher picked up a Matt Ryan fumble and ran it back for a td . Ryan was trying to scramble and lost his footing and put the ball on the ground to regain his balance but forgot to take it with him when he got up . I saw a ridiculous amount of tipped pass picks . There have been a lot of Qbs this year who started fast and have since now fizzled and some who started slow who took a few games to get going . Although with Tebow behind I suspect Orton never really had a chance .

by Willie Beamon on Dec 1, 2011 1:16 AM CST up reply actions

Winning is a team effort, and so is losing - no doubt

The Denver defense has improved since Kyle left – no doubt.

Kyle isn’t a horrible quarterback, but the defense wasn’t horrible when he was playing either. Raiders scored 23 against his defense. Bengals scored 22. Titans scored 17. It’s not like Kyle had to put 40 on the board to win these games. Kyle was averaging 2 turnoves per game in his 4.5 games this year. Take those away and all games, except the GB game (three picks, though), are pretty low scoring.

I’m not saying it’s all Kyle’s fault, only that he wasn’t having to put up 30 points to win games. He just needed to protect the ball and put up 20. Many failures happen in every loss, but at the end of the day, Kyle couldn’t find a way to win these close games. And he couldn’t find a way to win last year or the year before that either. After that 6-0 record in early 2009, Kyle’s record has been horrible. We can blame it on last year’s defense, but Tebow took over and had a better record and had the team looking more competitive in all three games. We can blame it on this year’s defense (or whatever), but the replacement QB has come in and found a way to win the close ones, whereas Kyle couldn’t.

Kyle isn’t horrible and he isn’t the only reason Denver was losing early this season. But Kyle was averaging two turnovers per game (by himself), and still played in games that the defense kept close, and still couldn’t get it done. And that’s not new to Kyle.

In the locker room after their 16-13 victory over the Chargers on Sunday, the Broncos were screaming like teenage girls at a Justin Bieber concert. ~Woody Paige.

by Rodney A on Dec 1, 2011 1:35 PM CST up reply actions

Oh I agree the turnovers are killer for any QB but since Tebow took over (and I havent breaking down everything ) The broncos defense has simply been able to get off the field in the 4th quarter at the start of the season they couldnt

I didnt say the defense was horrible but just that it didnt seem to hold from looking at some of the 4th quarter numbers . When you are holding teams scoreless in the 4th quarter its very easy to come back when the game is close .

Under Orton you had a lead in the 4th quarter at the Titans that defense didnt hold but the current defense wouldve

Against the Raiders on opening its a 3 point game and the coach doesnt onside kick and they run out the clock against SD the first time in the same situation he onsides kick and you do get the ball back and tebow scores

No matter how you try and wrap it one guy didnt lose those games just as one guy is not winning those games now . It was everyones fault jut as now everyone is contributing to the win.

by Willie Beamon on Dec 1, 2011 3:17 PM CST up reply actions

If I remember right Orton had better numbers at Purdue than Breeze. So if the nunbers

don’t lie, our QB (Orton) is better than breeze and we got a steal. But if numbers never lie, then they never tell the whole story either. Orton is a good pro mechanically, but lacks something that precludes most into believing he is a long term solution. Getting benched in Chicago for Grossman, after he led the team into the playoffs might of ruined his psychic makeup as he never has looked the same as back then.

by dubld on Nov 30, 2011 9:05 AM CST reply actions

True

Numbers can’t tell an entire story, and they never will. I’m not sure what it is he lacks, except that you make a valid point about his years in Chicago (the constant bump for Grossman, a few injuries, a trade) and that possibly hurt his over all mentality in the younger years. It’s an unknown factor but it will be interesting to see if he can find his footing in KC or if all we aqcuired is nothing but depth or a later trade.

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 9:12 AM CST up reply actions

re: depth or a later trade

Maybe neither. His contract is up at the end of this year. Very possible that all we have is a short term rental QB.

Foxtrot Alpha November - Sierra Hotel Oscar Tango!

by TRSChief on Nov 30, 2011 9:16 AM CST up reply actions

At the very least

we aren’t in Houston’s shoes right now.

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 9:21 AM CST up reply actions

No kidding.

Hey if your starting QB is going to go out for the season, better that it happens when you’re 4-5 and kind of struggling than when you’re 7-3 and looking like a shoo-in for the playoffs.

Foxtrot Alpha November - Sierra Hotel Oscar Tango!

by TRSChief on Nov 30, 2011 9:27 AM CST up reply actions

Managed 8-3

They start the season without Foster. The game they get Foster back Johnson goes out. The game before Johnson’s return, they lose Shaub. And then they lost Leinert. OUCH.

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 11:35 AM CST up reply actions

Don’t forget Mario Williams

Twitter: RaiderHater86

by ExRoyalsFan on Nov 30, 2011 11:23 PM CST up reply actions

I have watched Orton for a few years

even had him on my fantasy team when he was with the Bears. Orton has the tools to be good. He does have an interception issue. Whether that is because of who he was throwing to or because of his arm or because of the scheme (ie timing routes etc) is sort of unknown. When he was with the bears, he had very little in the way of marquee type players to throw the ball to. He moved on to Denver and lit it up pretty well for a while. The real question here is can Orton get up to speed with our offense quickly enough to make an impact. Since we are going into Chicago and facing Caleb Hanie instead of Cutler, my inclination would be to get Orton in there if he shows any life at all. I like Palko, but Orton’s experience is the one thing that Palko can’t provide right now and our backs are up against the wall. The playoffs start for the Chiefs on Sunday.

"You gonna pull them pistols...or whistle Dixie?"

by Aiken_Drum on Nov 30, 2011 9:06 AM CST reply actions

Who Knows

I would like to think he could learn enough of the offense and somehow learn to control that pick percentage against the Bears.

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

Totally agree.

by NJ Chiefs Fan on Nov 30, 2011 9:21 AM CST up reply actions

but Orton’s experience is the one thing that Palko can’t provide right now

That and at least the ability to throw the ball deep with some accuracy.

Good breakdown on Orton.

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Nov 30, 2011 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

You've got a little something on your comment there, lemme get it for ya..

That and at least the ability to throw the ball ~~deep with some accuracy~~.

"Why are all these people here? There are too many people on this earth. We need a new plague…"
-Dwight Schrute

by severn58 on Nov 30, 2011 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Thanks for telling me

Most people would just stare and laugh behind my back… you’re a good guy.

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
I am the Master of Hyperenthetical Asiditry (you know, like this. Only more)

by MNchiefsfan on Nov 30, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed..

Orton may be the most motivated player on the Chiefs’ roster right now.

Angry Red, 'nuff said.

by chiefsfan62 on Nov 30, 2011 11:08 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

He may certainly be

His career was shut down by Grossman, then Cutler, and now Tebow. You look at guys like Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and those guys have stayed put. It’s hard to reestablish yourself every three years, I’m sure. If he wants to have a career anywhere he has to show up in KC whether we keep him or not, and that should motivate him unless he’s just beyond repair. I mean that Denver air couldn’t be easy to breathe. (not talking altitude)

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 11:23 AM CST up reply actions

then be replaced by RG3

or Stanzi

BOOM!

by 808NaNz808 on Nov 30, 2011 1:23 PM CST up reply actions

Sorry Aiken

…but you lost me here:

I like Palko

There’s no doubt in my mind that Orton is an upgrade over Palko.

by Chief_Elmo on Nov 30, 2011 11:43 AM CST up reply actions

if malaria played quarterback for the Chiefs

Aiken would like it

The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.

by sm7600 on Nov 30, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

so, you're saying

Aiken=Jon Gruden?

by stagdsp on Nov 30, 2011 12:20 PM CST up reply actions

No...

Palko = Chris Weinke

PICTURE ME SLAPPING THE TOUGHEST GUY YOU KNOW!!!

KCCHIEFSFAN72!!!!

by kcchiefsfan72 on Nov 30, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions

that's good, stag ... Aiken = Chuckie

careful, he has a knife

Twisted Lord of AP Color Commentary (H/T - Loco)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Nov 30, 2011 1:50 PM CST up reply actions

he'll be better then palko

so nothing else, past numbers included, matter. He can lead the league in INT’s, palko would’ve, but at least he’ll throw for more yardage & more td’s, TD’S, PLURAL. compared to palko’s ZERO, thats a great upgrade.

then again, maybe better off letting palko destroy us & play for a top pick

by TheMainEvent on Nov 30, 2011 10:36 AM CST reply actions

Orton has good potential.

If he can match the productivity of his Denver days with Brandon Marshal et al., the Chiefs may decide to keep him past this year. He was pretty good at finding his receivers and distributing the ball in both Denver and Chicago, and he definitely has something to prove after being cast off in favor of the Golden Boy, so who knows?

Ancora imparo.

by midcalchief on Nov 30, 2011 10:53 AM CST reply actions

I think Orton is going to be just good enough to screw us

He’ll put up better numbers than Cassel and win two games (maybe Chi and Den.) The better numbers, higher chance of winning, and let’s face it, salary, will keep Orton in and Stanzi inactive. He’ll be enough better than Cassel that the Chiefs will want Orton to stay and compete, but as a free agent, he will want starter status and money, so he’ll leave. The two wins will put the Chiefs at 14 or 15 in the draft, and all the QBs will be gone. Then we enter next year with Cassel starting again, and Stanzi a hopeful but untested and thus unproven, commodity again…

sooner or later, God'll cut you down...

by nmchief on Nov 30, 2011 12:11 PM CST reply actions

I think your analysis

is the most realistic one I have read here. It is interesting how the change from Broncho orange to Chief’s red has miraculously transformed Orton from the boob that was constantly derided on this board to somehow being the savior.

by Jim from KC on Nov 30, 2011 12:19 PM CST up reply actions

Funny some people see it the way you paint the picture

I personally have always liked Orton. I know I have said that more then once on these boards. It also funny how everyone keeps saying he lost hist starting job to Grossman in Chicago, thats not true…he was never the started in Chicago untill they parted ways with Grossman. He was thier back up who came in and started for an injured grossman who resumed his starting roll once he was healthy. That just turned out to be the first play off game that season after Orton lead them to the playoffs. Should be real easy to see how this could happen as a Chiefs fan…….can anyone here say Rich Gannon???

The Orton gets his shot as starter and after a season the francise has a shot at Cutler and like ANY franchise (with the exception of Indy, NE, NO and GB) would jump all over. Then gets run out of Denver because the fanbase and media dictate the starting line up for thier team. (I am not saying Orton was a saint or played exceptionally this season for them) My point is that he is the best QB on the Chiefs roster right now and possibly sense Trent Green left. Does that mean he is the long term answer or the francise caliber QB? Probly not but he is a better option then a 5th round draft pick that has 0 exp and the coaching staff has no cofidence in. Just my 2 cents

**Heres to 5 err 4 more years of JC!!!!**

by BDCinSA on Nov 30, 2011 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Honestly...

you never know. Change can be for the better. Coaching staff, team colors, teammates, scheme, atmosphere, etc. He may come in and light it up, impressing everyone from the brass to himself. I fear that he does just that, the brass declines any potential QBs in the draft, maintain and pay both Orton and Cassel to compete for the starting gig, placing the other at QB #2 while keeping Stanzi at number 3. The only good I can see coming from that is that Palko will be gone. It could happen because Cassel has already proved he is okay with being a backup. The problem is that we still do not go after our potential QBOTF and Stanzi remains limited, if active at all.

PICTURE ME SLAPPING THE TOUGHEST GUY YOU KNOW!!!

KCCHIEFSFAN72!!!!

by kcchiefsfan72 on Nov 30, 2011 12:48 PM CST up reply actions

I have always thought orton was a better QB with a better arm than Cassel, but you should have seen the abuse i got for thinking on my own.

by Jim from KC on Nov 30, 2011 9:32 PM CST up reply actions

abuse 'em back my friend

by dubld on Dec 1, 2011 4:11 AM CST up reply actions

If I were Pioli

I would flip Orton to the Texans. Send Orton and our third round pick there for their first.
Then go after Matt Flynn in the off season, with this draft heavy on QB’s we should be able to add Flynn at about $4 mil a year. He or Cassel could perform well behind a “new” oline.

So sign: QB Flynn (GB), LT Bell (Buf) and TE Jacob Tamme (Ind)

Drop to #19 with Cleveland and get their second #42

R1 #19 LB Don’te Hightower-Alabama
R1 #29 G Cordy Glenn-Georgia
R2 #41 NT Dontari Poe-Memphis
R2 #42 RB Chris Polk-Washington
R4 #105 C Ben Jones-Georgia
R5 #137 DE Kaleb Ramsey-BC
R6 #169 FS Tysyn Hartman-Kansas State
R7 #201 SS Brandon Taylor-LSU

by 102win on Nov 30, 2011 2:31 PM CST reply actions

Here's mine with no trades or trade downs.

R1- Alameda Ta’amu NT Washington
R2- Manti Te’o SILB Notre Dame
R3- Ben Jones C Georgia
R4- Ricky Wagner RT Wisconsin
R5- Philip Lutzenkirchen TE Auburn
R6-Vick Ballard RB Miss St
R7- Charles Mitchell S Miss St

Warning: If you're reading this it has been censored.
Disclaimer: Comments above are not meant to be taken with a grain of salt.

by CPT.Caveman on Nov 30, 2011 4:02 PM CST up reply actions

looks good

by 102win on Nov 30, 2011 4:31 PM CST up reply actions

We don't have the rights to trade Orton

He’s a FA after this year.

by kcsno56 on Nov 30, 2011 4:25 PM CST up reply actions

How can we not trade him for the rest of this year?

Texans are desperate

by 102win on Nov 30, 2011 4:30 PM CST up reply actions

Trade deadline has already passed.

by MissionJayhawk on Nov 30, 2011 5:02 PM CST up reply actions

Shit I forgot to turn the trade dead line option off in franchise mode damnit.

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by CPT.Caveman on Nov 30, 2011 8:12 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Wow, just wow.

Denver couldn’t get a 7th for Orton. I guess they should have been asking for a 1.

by Broncokev on Nov 30, 2011 8:35 PM CST up reply actions

How is it that people still haven't realised that we can't trade Orton

KC Draft prediction: No OT taken in first round

by trentchiefsfan on Dec 1, 2011 2:52 AM CST up reply actions

It's pretty remarkable, really.

by Tomahawk29 on Dec 1, 2011 12:07 PM CST up reply actions

Sucker for an Underdog

and sometimes that makes me a glutton for punishment. But I do think, want to believe, that we hit a stroke of luck when we did with Orton. Houston and the Bears need quarterbacks in a bad way as well and there is just no one left for depth hardly at all. The thing that sort of intrigues me the most about him is that his numbers and record aren’t horrible (his picks are, sure), but what has been lacking in his career that he keeps getting bounced around? Call me an optimist but I want to believe that he can find his stride in KC, gain some confidence, and learn the offense. PLUS, as you say to see him play lights out would be awesome. We need a QB, that much is obvious. I’m more in favor of gaining a veteran who can train up a good rookie as opposed to shoving a rookie on the field in 2012 because we’ve become frustrated and impatient. I don’t have my hopes high for the Bears game, purely based on how much time he’s had and for the x factor of Haley’s decision making at the moment. The Ravens D scares me, but I think otherwise if he shows leadership…we could make a run late in the season.

It may be unpopular of me to say this as I would love to see us draft high for a rookie like RGIII but at the same time I won’t be able to say, “Give up and suck for draft position.” It just feels…wrong. If we wind up sucking because well…we suck then okay. But I’d like to see a team that can bring it ANY GIVEN SUNDAY!! (OL please!)

by EricaSp on Nov 30, 2011 6:41 PM CST reply actions 1 recs