Chiefs vs. Steelers: The Closing Line


Good morning Chiefs fans! The Steelers are in town and hopefully the Chiefs can put together two halves of football against one of the AFC's best. We saw glimmers of hope in the first half on Monday night, but here's to looking for a more complete ballgame.

In The Opening Line, the folks in Vegas had us pegged as a 10.5 point underdog and total was unsettled between 39.5 and 40. Did folks jump on the Steelers and move that line? Did the Orton signing do anything to the line? Will there be a sudden rush to back the Chiefs? Let's find out this and more in our Week 12 installment of The Closing Line.

Not much has changed with the line here on gameday as the Steelers are still 10.5 point favorites at about 95% of the places you can bet (the others are at 11 and the Wynn LV is at 10) and the total has crept up to 40.5 in most places. Seems pretty much like a regular week but I noticed a few things that made me pause. Let's check it out:

11/27/11 237 Pittsburgh 10½ -10.5
40 26906 80% 47% 58%
8:30PM 238 Kansas City 39½ 10.5
40 20% 53% 42%

This chart is taken from a site I use that updates in real time from a variety of offshore sites and Vegas casinos. The 10.5 and 40 are obvious, the ones to the left are the opening lines. The 26906 represents the number of wagers put on this game, which I would say is a lot and will go up by tonight. Here's part that interests me. The 80% represents the number of wagers on Pittsburgh -10.5. The second column is for the Money Line and the third is for the total. Let's focus on the 80% though. 4 out of every 5 bets have come in on the Steelers, yet the line has NOT moved at all. The 1 out of 5 people that are on the Chiefs are (by my experience and estimation) putting up enough money on our guys to keep this line where it is. If the saying, "follow the money" is accurate, there is a lot of good money coming in on the Chiefs.

I am not saying that this in any way should sway you to go throw a big bet down on either team, I'm simply giving you a guide to show you that this one isn't as clear cut to the "experts" as we see it. So don't feel stupid this week if you do like the Chiefs to cover the points, because there is some good money that agrees with you. Hope you enjoyed this week's charts and graphs!

 

Fantasy Football Injury Updates:

Ruled out before Sunday:  TE Dallas Clark (fibula), QB Jay Cutler (right thumb), WR Malcom Floyd (hip), WR Jacoby Ford (foot), RB Fred Jackson (fibula), WR Donald Jones (ankle), K Rian Lindell (shoulder), RB Darren McFadden (foot), RB Adrian Peterson (ankle)

Early games (1 p.m. ET)

RB Joseph Addai (hamstring, questionable)
RB Montario Hardesty (calf, questionable): active
WR Percy Harvin (ribs, questionable): active
RB Peyton Hillis (hamstring, questionable): active
QB Kevin Kolb (toe, questionable)
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (hamstring, questionable)

Late games (4:05, 4:15 p.m. ET)

WR Deion Branch (hip, questionable)
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (neck, questionable)
WR Jeremy Maclin (hamstring, doubtful)
WR Denarius Moore (foot, questionable)
QB Michael Vick (ribs, questionable)

 

Steve in RI Selections:

Not a lot to really love this week. But I like a couple.

Cleveland +7.5 (funny things happen in the battle for Ohio)

St. Louis -2.5 (even though they burn me frequently)

Denver +5.5 (It's disgusting football, but they make it work. And San Diego is in shambles)

Kansas City +10.5 (why not?)

 

Well folks, I tried to give you a little extra today and I hope it piqued your interest! Have a wonderful day and night (I got to go to my game so best of luck to all the Arrowhead faithful tonight!!) and I will be seeing you tomorrow when we preview the Bears game. First things first though: a victory tonight! Have a great day!

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