What is Fantasy Football Metrics and why should I care?

Well, simply put Fantasy Football Metrics is a website that crunches things like FF Weekly Sit/Start Projections, Draft Guilds, and Cheat Sheets for the football fanatics of the world.

Lets go over why we should care after 'The Jump"...

Last year before the draft Fantasy Football Metrics plugged in stats for the 2011 QB Draft Class into their QB Ranking System and the results were quite intriguing...

They rated QBs from Cam Newton to our own Ricky Stanzi and here is some key points they found on the 2011 Rookie QB Class.

Blaine Gabbert:

"Blaine Gabbert is going to be a great first test of the rating system we have developed for projecting college QB success to the NFL. Everyone is in love with Gabbert now, because Kiper and McShay are...but we are looking to go on record as Blaine Gabbert is going to be a bust at this point."

Jake Locker:

"There are so many red-flags on Locker it still is amazing he is being discussed in the first round. I still believe that the Locker-hype is a front by smart teams to push him on a sucker team (Oakland Raiders are you listening?). My prediction is most NFL execs and Draft gurus will wise up to this and Locker will fall in the projections to a 2nd-3rd Round pick and then actually be a 3rd Round selection. Maybe a "project" QB long-term at best, but he is definitely not stepping in right away to save a franchise. If selected in the 1st Round, Locker is the ultimate "fools gold" QB in this year's NFL Draft (are you listening Cincinnati Bengals?)."

Christian Ponder:

"2010 performance: A 0.649 rating our system places Ponder in the lower/middle range with other mostly bust, or never-made-it, QBs.
2009 performance: A 0.903 places Ponder in the range of the probable very good/elite QBs.

The fact that Christian Ponder was capable of metrics like 2009, has to give you pause to consider him in 2011. The fact that he had a weaker 2010 and has been so injury prone/unlucky would have to give you pause to not select him in 2011. Not every mathematical story we research has a pretty bow to wrap it all up with. Honestly, with Ponder, we just don't know. There is too much conflicting data to say anything definitive."

Cam Newton:

"My bias going into a study of Cam Newton was that I felt like we were staring at the next Tim Tebow or Vince Young, and that our algorithm was going to spit Newton out and expose him as a bit of a fraud of a passer. The numbers actually said something much different, it brought to light (for me) that Cam Newton had a better than I expected/very good passing metrics in 2010."

Ryan Mallett:

"Mallett's passing metrics in college most matchup with Matthew Stafford, which is a tough NFL QB to gage...however, I think that makes sense. Stafford at times has looked great in bursts in the NFL. Big arm and gets the ball downfield, kinda like Mallett's M.O. At the same time, a little erratic and prone to an INT while trying to use the big arm to force the ball into places that NFL CBs won't allow it to go. Overall jury is out on Stafford, many see the potential of a good/great QB someday -- I think that analysis stands for Mallett as well. The right system, the right coach and Mallett can break through to be good in the NFL...but he's not a ultra-talented enough to overcome bad coaching or mediocre receivers through his sheer talent and will."

Andy Dalton:

"Andy Dalton is a "sleeper" among a few people that I consider "wise" on the NFL Draft process. This made me very intrigued to do the analysis on Dalton to see how he popped up on our mathematical formula. The numbers are coming up that Dalton is a potentially very good NFL QB, with some signs of a chance to be an elite NFL QB."


Before we go any further I would like to point out a couple of things about the information listed so far...

...They said Andy Dalton was a "sleeper" and "is a potentially very good NFL QB, with some signs of a chance to be an elite NFL QB". Based on the way he has played so far, I would call this spot on.

...They said Cam Newton, contrary to popular belief, had 'very good passing metrics". How big of a shock was it to the folks at ESPN/National Media at the start of the season when Newton starting passing like a true NFL QB. Well, it was not shocking to Fantasy Football Metrics website, they called it before the draft even happened.


Now let's get down to brass tacks (Why we should care about all this). As some folks on AP already know, Fantasy Football Metrics rated one other QB last year...our own Ricky Stanzi!

Ricky Stanzi:

Statistical Analysis of Ricky Stanzi, the Best QB in the 2011 NFL Draft and/or the next Tom Brady?

"I have to confess I did not watch many Iowa Hawkeye football games this season. As the college QBs start their journey to the NFL, I get more interested for the Fantasy Football aspect. This season, I was aware of the usual "big names" -- Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Mallett and had been intrigued by Andy Dalton...but I have to say when I saw Ricky Stanzi's name on a list -- I wondered, "how did he make it in the QBs list for the 2011 NFL Draft"? Don't ask me why I had that reaction, I just know I did. Big-10 bias (against), maybe? Flashbacks to Chuck Long, perhaps? Whatever the reason, I just had an irrational gut reaction. Which is why I love what I do, I try to eliminate the emotional and just rely on the data. Not knowing Stanzi, I was curious as how the analysis would turn out.

As I input the key game/tougher opponent game data for Ricky Stanzi into our algorithm for analyzing college QBs, I just kept saying "that's pretty good" after each game entered...and it just kept rolling. Before I went to take a look at Stanzi's overall total score in our system I thought, "this could be pretty good". When I did finally look at the overall rating, it wasn't good -- it was great. It was college-to-NFL projected "elite". High up on the list wedged in-between Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez, and slightly above Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers. I had to go back check a 2nd and 3rd time to see if I had made an error. No error...

Can Ricky Stanzi really be a future elite NFL QB? Can he really be the # 1 overall best QB (according to our system right now)? Right now he is for us. A lot of this potential stardom projection is riding on his Wonderlic scores from the NFL Combine, a bad score can tumble Stanzi right out of great and into maybe good or mediocre. Assuming an average/good Wonderlic score, Ricky Stanzi is the hidden gem QB of 2011."


Doesn't sound to bad, but what did he score on the Wonderlic you ask???? Here is Fantasy Football Metrics artical on Stanzi post Wonderlic.


To all those Chiefs fans who think that just because Stanzi was drafted in the 5th he will not amount to much, know that there is a least ONE independent analysis that ranked our very own Ricky Stanzi over ALL others from the 2011 QB Draft Class. While they might not be 'right', so far they for sure have not been 'wrong', at least not about Dalton (I heard he is doing alright in Cincinnati) and Newton (who is shaping up to be a better passer then most thought).

I would submit that Stanzi is better then all the QB taken in last years draft, AND better then all but Andrew Luck in this years draft. Please for the love of Arrowhead....let Pioli / Haley finish what they have started (building a team that will compete for a Super Bowl not just for a season, but EVERY season...much like the Steelers). Let them continue to develop guys like Hudson, Powe, Stanzi the 'right' way (not the omg we must win RIGHT NOW or all hope is lost BS).

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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