Chiefs vs. Colts: The Opening Line

via www.betvega.com

Good morning Chiefs fans! Hope you are all still feeling good from the win on Sunday as I know I am. It's always funny how a Chiefs win changes the mood of the week for me and I hope it brightened everyone else's week as well.

We must put that win behind us though and prepare for Week 5 where we will be taking on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts enter this game with an 0-4 record, but have been very competitive the last two weeks against the Steelers and the Buccaneers. They have a short week to prepare and are at home, but the Chiefs seemingly match up well at most positions with them. Will Vegas put them emphasis on home field and give the Colts the benefit of the doubt, or will they make the Chiefs a small road favorite like Minnesota was this past week?

Follow on to find out, in another edition of The Opening Line

 

Normally we would look at the opening line on Monday (and there was a line out), but with the Colts playing last night we are looking at it today in the event the line moved because of the Colts performance. The line that came out Sunday night was Indianapolis -2. After their performance last night, the line has not changed and the opening line is Indianapolis -2 and the total is 38.5. It's clear we have not done enough in the eyes of the oddsmakers that would merit us being a favorite on the road, even against an 0-4 team. After all, they are simply looking to put out a line that will draw in bettors on both sides so I will call this line fair.

I have my own opinion right out of the gate. Last year, with both team's a full strength, the line was Indy -7. Romeo and the defense had a solid game plan and confounded the Colts offense most of the afternoon. I am aware it's 2011 and we do not have Eric Berry, but are we to think that Curtis Painter is going to do what Manning couldn't? I am very confident that our defense will have a solid game considering we have faced some good QBs already. The key to a win and cover for us is the offensive line. If they keep the pass rush at bay, and our offense can move the ball with some consistency, I feel it will be tough for Indy to score enough to beat us. Who knows though, and the NFL certainly has a way of producing the unexpected, so let's see how the week plays out. Let's look at some trends between the two sides:

  • KANSAS CITY is 4-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last 5 games against the AFC South (only 2-3 SU [straight up])
  • INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 ATS AND SU in their last 5 games against the AFC West
  • The OVER has hit in 3 out of the Colts 4 games (only game it did not was a 34-7 opening day loss with a total of 44)

There are other trends available, but honestly they all factor in Peyton Manning and have little bearing on this game (ex. Colts are very good in both October games and in weeks 5 through 9 in recent years, but that will have little to do with this game).

In closing, last week I all but guaranteed a Chiefs win and cover, but this week I am going to keep doing my homework and see where the money is coming in as the week progresses. I think most would agree this is a very winnable game, but I am not as confident of our team on the road yet as I was at home this past week. With that said though, let's start getting pumped up for this one because I think we owe Indianapolis a beatdown for pretty much owning us in the 2000's. Wherever you are, have a great day and a great week and I hope you enjoyed another installment of The Opening Line.

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