FanPost

Week Eight Match-Up: A Closer Look


I posted my weekly match-up report earlier this week that you can find here.  I thought this week I would dive closer into a couple more important stats.  This game is too important for the Chiefs just to brush off if they lose.  The Chargers seem to be struggling quite a bit whereas the Chiefs are on the rise.

All the haters seem to think it is because the Chiefs have been playing weaker teams.  I say that good teams beat the teams they are suppose to beat, beat a few they aren't suppose to beat, and win the division games.  I can't stress enough how important this game is.

Alright, let's look at the schedule so far for both the Chargers and the Chiefs.  The Chargers have played the Vikings, Patriots, Chiefs, Dolphins, Broncos, and Jets.  The teams they have beat have a combined record of 6-19.  The Chiefs have played the Bills, Lions, Chargers, Colts, Vikings, and Raiders.  The teams they have beat have a combined record of 5-16.  The Chargers aren't beating the "good" teams either.

Todd Haley always says that if the Chiefs don't give the ball away or hurt themselves that they will be in every game.  I couldn't agree more with that.  One area I want to look at are the penalties.  One reason why it was easier to beat the Raiders is because they are very undisciplined team.  They average just about 10 penalties per game which is last in the league.  Do the Chiefs have anything to worry about Monday?

Team

Penalties Per Game

Last 3 Games

Home

Away

NFL Ranking

Chiefs

6.2

7.0

3.5

7.0

15th

Chargers

5.8

7.0

5.3

6.5

10th

 

Right off the bat you see that the Chargers and Chiefs are very close in penalties per game.  However, the big difference is the average for home and away games.  The Chiefs play very safe at home this year where the Chargers commit quite a bit more on the road.  Every little bit will help and I hope Arrowhead will be rocking to put more pressure on a struggling Philip Rivers.

Alright, I now want to look at the turnovers per game.  The last three games the Chiefs have been outstanding on not giving the ball away.

Team

Turnovers Per Game

Last 3 Games

Home

Away

Chiefs

2.0

0.7

1.5

2.2

Chargers

2.0

1.3

1.3

2.7

 

Wow, this is another category where the Chiefs and Chargers are very close in.  Once again the advantage goes to the home team.  It especially helps that the crowd will be crazier due to a night game.  I guess having a shot to be in first place in the division will only help as well.  1 extra turnover might not seem like a lot but it could be a difference of 3 to 7 points.

I also want to look at the takeaway category too.

Team

Takeaways Per Game

Last 3 Games

Home

Away

Chiefs

1.8

2.3

1.0

2.2

Chargers

1.2

1.7

1.3

1.0

 

Alright, I see first hand that our numbers might be inflated a bit due to the Raiders game--as you can see from the away numbers.  This is another area where the Chiefs and Chargers are very close.

So now I want to look at points allowed per game since this is a game about points.  Both teams have played some good defenses and bad ones so this will be a good indicator.

Team

1st Quarter Points Allowed

2nd Quarter Points Allowed

3rd Quarter Points Allowed

4th Quarter Points Allowed

Chiefs

5.8

7.7

5.2

6.3

Chargers

5.2

6.0

2.8

8.7

 

The Chargers are better at now letting the other team score thus far this season.  You can look at the first two games of the year for the Chiefs and discard them but the games still count. If you look at the 4th quarter it seems like the Chargers get tired whereas the Chiefs buckle down a bit when comparing. However, I want to point out that during the last 3 games the Chiefs have improved on these numbers.  I also want to point out the Chargers have not improved during the last 3 games and have given up more points--except for the 2nd quarter.

This game will be pretty simple.  We take care of the ball and don't hurt ourselves.  In the original post this week I predicted a win based on the numbers presented.  This was just another post to look at more strengths and weaknesses.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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