FanPost

2 DRAFTS FOR LUCK?NOT AS CRAZY AS IT SOUNDS


When KC was 0-3,many fans were day dreaming about drafting Stanford QB Andrew Luck.What seemed out of reach,was made real by this teams god awful play.However,''suck for Luck'' is now as out of reach as ever with wins against the Colts and Vikes.Our only hope now is that ST.Louis has the number 1 pick,so we can possibly make a trade to move up.That pick however ,is going to cost a fortune.In fact,I could see someone making a Ricky Williams type deal and trade away an entire draft to get him.I will give you 1 better,I would give up 2,yes 2 drafts to move up to get the best QB prospect since John Elway.Before you call me crazy and scroll down to comment on what a moron I am ,just hear me out.

 

The modern day NFL is a passing league.The days of hitting someone in the mouth and playing smash mouth football,are going the way of the buffalo.To be an elite team you must be able to pass the ball with great efficiency.You have to have a smart,accurate,QB that can make all the throws down field.The QB position is the most important position in sports,no player can make a more immediate  impact than a franchise passer.And no position is harder to find.Here are examples of recent turnarounds.

Peyton Manning round 1(1) 1998 3-13. 1999 13-3

Donavan McNabb round 1(2) 1999 5-11.  2000 11-5

Eli Manning round 1(1) 2004 6-10 .2005  11-5

Ben Rothlesburger 1(11) 2004 15-1

Matt Ryan 1(3) 2008 11-5

The only recent example of a team trading an entire draft for 1 player,is the infamous Ricky Williams trade in 1999.Mike Ditka gave away a 1,3,4,5,6,7 in 99 and a 1,3 in 2000.History tells us the Saints got the raw end of that deal,but did they?Williams has over 9700 yards rushing in 12 seasons.But what about what the Redskins? Here is what the draft would have looked like had the Saints not traded,based on the players that were picked by other teams. I even threw in the rest of the 2000 draft.

1.(12) Chicago via Saints/Redskins Cade MCnown QB UCLA .MCnown was 3-12 as  a starter.He threw 16tds to 19 ints.A shoulder injury ended his career after he signed with the 49ers in 2000.

3(71) Chicago via Saints/Redskins D'Wayne Bates, WR, Northwestern .Bates had 80 catches for 1061 yards and 6 td's in 5 years in the NFL.Of those 80 rec,50 came in 1 season.

4(107) Washington via Saints LB Nate Stimson, Georgia Tech,never played a down in the league.

5(144) Chicago via Saints/Redskins LB Khari Samuel, Massachussetts ,had 16 tackles,fumble rec,in his 3 years in the league

6(179) Denver via Saints/Redskins TE Desmond Clark, Wake Forest, had 323 rec,3591 yards 27tds in 12 years good value pick.

7(218) Denver via Saints/Redskins TE/WR Billy Miller ,USC, had 200 rec,2248 yards 10 tds in 8 years decent value

Ok,so the 1st leg of the draft  trade produced 1 starter , 1 backup and 4 busts. Not that impressive is it?Washington did trade up with Chicago to get Champ Bailey.But we are looking at the actual Saints picks that were taken at there slots.Lets continue into the 2000 draft.

1(2) Washington via Saints LB Lavarr Arrington ,Penn State,Arrington was the best player taken by any team(other than Williams) in this trade.In 7 years,he had 413,tackles,23.5 sacks,3 int's,6 forced fumbles,7 rec,3 pro bowls.However,by his 5th year he started to break down and his career was cut short because of injuries.

2(33) Saints select DE Darren Howard Kansas State.My Saints showed up the Redskins and selected Howard who had 354 tackles,67 sacks,3 int's ,16 forced fumbles,10 rec. Impact player

3(64) Llyod Harrison CB,NC State.Is there any doubt why Chalie Casserly was fired?The Redskins last pick from the Saints ,netted a guy that had 17 tackles 1 sack in 3 years with 3 different teams.

4(96)Saints select Terrelle Smith ,FB,AZ State.Smith played 9 seasons and was a solid FB with the Saints.However,his play tailed off when he left the team in 04.

5(133) Tuten Reyes OT,Miss,journeyman who started 37 games with 6 teams in 9 years(only 4 a year).

6(168) Marc Bulger QB,West Virginia,started off hot and looked like another Tom Brady.However injuries and inconsistent play quickly derailed his promissing career.

7(208)Kansas City via trade Desmond Kitchings WR,Furman,never played a down.

So there you have it,2 drafts net,1 pro bowler,3 solid starters and 1 backup(all out of the league) for a running back that is still playing.But what if the Saints traded those 2 drafts for Donavan Mcnabb?Saints would have had 7 post seasons ,4 NFC championships,and 1 Super Bowl appearance giving up only 4 decent to good players.Is there any reasonable person ,after seeing what those 2 drafts produced that would not have traded them for MCnabb, a franchise QB?

When people hear about giving up 2 drafts ,they assume that you are giving up good 14 players.That is simply not the case .In fact I did research to try to find on average,the good players each team drafts on a yearly basis.And by good,I mean guys going into there 2nd contract.Those players are now veterens ,making millions instead of thousands.You see,it is the economics of the game that drive out as many players as injuries.Boomer Grigsby was fine when this team only had to pay him 6 figures.But when they had to pay him millions,he wasn.t good enough and he left the league healthy and able to play.It is an unfortionate part of the game.So. I took the 05/06 drafts combined.These players if still in the NFL  are on there 2nd contract,making them good enough contributers to get another deal.

7th round; 76 picks,19 still in league

6th round;77 picks,24 still in league

5th round;72 picks, 19 still in the league

4th round; 69 picks,34 still in league

3rd round;68 picks 34 still in league

2nd round;64 picks ,44 still in league

1st round;64 picks,54 still in league

All of the players still playing have varying degrees of success,but only 228 remain from the 05/06 drafts.That is less than half of the 510 total players taken.If we do the math, teams walked away with 3.5 impact players after those 2 drafts.That on average is less than 2 a year.That is about what the Eagles would have got,had the Saints made a deal with Philly in 99.So ,in that case how is trading away 2 drafts that much of a risk?It is far more of a risk passing on A franchise QB in a passing league.Every other player is a dime a dozen compared to a difference maker under center.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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