2 DRAFTS FOR LUCK?NOT AS CRAZY AS IT SOUNDS

So I guess he’s no good after all.

I was part of a brokerage company that negotiated rates between companies with products to ship and transportation companies to provide the shipping. I had to get the highest competitive rates possible from the shippers and then find the sweet spot of the transportation firms to get the lowest rates from them – i.e. where do they want to go.
So, using the radio personality analogy, I would also research your competition in similar programming and markets to determine comparative results – essentially, how much better are you than your competition? Most importantly, I’d research the station for which you work and wish to obtain a better contract. Before entering any negotiation, some of the most important things to know are the needs, weaknesses and fiduciary position of your opponent. If the financial position of the station is shaky, your value to them is negligible, regardless your history.
Taking that principle into football, the position of the team with whom you’re negotiating to trade up is a very important factor – you have to know what their needs are to know what value to offer them that you can also live with. THAT is the most important leverage to have going into any negotiation – knowing your opponent.
While I understand your opinion that the QB position is the most important, the percentage of importance is subjective, as many might rate the WR position nearly as high depending upon the offensive system they run and their historical experience. Many may believe that an average to good QB will get them to the SB with solid well-balanced teams and great WR’s – it doesn’t matter if you believe it, the point is to know if your opponent believes that or could believe it (the list below would tend to bear that out). As noted in the above analogy, the needs and weaknesses of the team who holds the #1 pick are essential factors to know. Does your opponent value the QB position in the same percentages as you do? Do they have glaring weaknesses at other positions where they can be tempted with the right bargaining chip? Much more goes into getting the best value possible while keeping as much as you can. I certainly wouldn’t go into a negotiation if my opponent knew I was salivating for one specific target – it’s a no win situation, so I’d have to aim then for my next most desired target. In fact, I’d probably reference at least the top 5-7 as desirable if that came up as a topic. Again, if it’s my position that Luck is my guy period, I’m going to obscure that as much as possible so I can get him for the best deal – not just toss everything I have on the table and drool or beg.
Avg to Good (not great, not elite, not HOF’ers or likely to be) QB’s that took their teams to a SB:
Daryle Lamonica (debatable on great; awesome winning % but struggled with zone defenses and accuracy); Earl Morrall; Joe Kapp; Craig Morton; Billy Kilmer; Ken Stabler (more INTs than TD’s in his career is not great); Vince Ferragamo; Ron Jaworski; Ken Anderson; David Woodley; Joe Theismann; Jim McMahon; Tony Eason; Phil Simms; Doug Williams; Boomer Esiason; Jeff Hostetler; Mark Rypien; Stan Humpries; Neil O’Donnell; Drew Bledsoe; Chris Chandler; Steve McNair; Trent Dilfer; Kerry Collins; Brad Johnson; Jake Delhomme; Matt Hasselbeck; Rex Grossman.
So rather than 6 non-elite QB’s in the SB, not counting Lamonica since it’s debatable, we find there have actually been at least 28 average to good QB’s out of 52 total that have started in 43 Super Bowls. (18 up to 1995; 10 since 1995; take into account how many repeat performances have occurred during that period.)
That’s 54% of all QB’s who’ve taken their teams to the SB – not the 6 that you’ve previously stated. Let’s stay away from the "passing league" argument, as many of the SB QB’s over the years were fairly prolific passers and it’s easier to pass today with the protection afforded by the rules, so it was harder to make it in years past rather than easier.
As fans, we want what we want. We have to remember though, that football is a business and the GM’s job is to get the best deals he can with an eye to the company’s bottom line. Regardless the business, if a bidding war starts, then he’d best have a 2nd and 3rd best option in mind or he’ll get screwed. Any good negotiating executive won’t allow himself to get caught in a bidding war and give away every bargaining chip he has. There are two options to get players for a team – the draft and free agency. Historically, the best teams have used both to build a solid team – not just one or the other. If I have 2 options to use to do my job and one is a valuable bargaining tool in negotiations, I’m not going to eliminate that one for extended periods of time just to get a single player, regardless how highly he’s viewed. The potential downside is too great from the company perspective. The Ricky Williams example is a good one, as that trade was more harmful than helpful to the Saints as they never got the value from him on the field that Ditka estimated. There are many experts in the business who’ve stated as much.
I’ve also owned rental properties, so I can work with this analogy. Regardless how appealing one property is or how good the profit margin is today, my goal if I’m going to be a landlord and own rental property is to have a portfolio of properties of varying profit margins in different areas. I’m not going to bank on one being the top money-maker over the long haul, as too many other factors can affect the performance over a period of time (changing zoning laws; devaluation of neighboring properties; migration of tenants affecting how many actually pay) to categorically state that a single property will perform at max profit indefinitely.
Possibly the best analogy would be trading in the financial market, say deciding on a 401k portfolio. Any good money manager will tell you that the best portfolios are a balanced mix of aggressive high performance stocks (riskiest), mid-range performers (more conservative but lower profit yield), and safer low-yield bonds. That said, one never puts ALL their money in the aggressive stocks, as while the earnings potential is the greatest, the loss potential is also the greatest and most likely.
So, regardless the business, it is never a good business move to lay everything you have on a single bet. And no matter how highly he’s rated, Luck is still a bet in a number of ways (especially if he’s truly great but gets a career-ending injury-say Theismann- or a season-ender that affects him mentally).

If he fails, which I don’t think he will, we’re absolutely in the shit. I’m not opposed to trading for him but not 2 drafts

so even with Montana there was no guarantee …

give it up

And use the most extreme example we can find.Yes Russel was a bust.And yes he was the number 1 pick.But I don’t recall anyone but AL thinking he would be any good.Lane Kiffen got fired because he benched Russel

that is supposed to say #2 rush offense, #4 pass defense, #1 rush defense and #1 total defense

2003 Tommy Maddox 6-10 record , 21st on 3rd down conversion.Big Ben 2004 ,14-1, .11th in 3rd down conversion.