INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 9: Matt Cassel #7, quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs' throws under pressure from the Indianapolis Colts during the second half of play at Lucas Oil Field on October 9, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by John Sommers II/Getty Images)
It's time. Time to see what the Kansas City Chiefs are made of after the bye week (aka worst week of the season). Time to see if we stack up with a talented team who would love nothing more to destroy us and needs each win as much as we do.
It's also time again for The Opening Line. With a trip to the 4-2 Oakland Raiders on the horizon, Vegas surely won't give us much of a chance in this one. I mean, Oakland is a hot, quick, physical team and we have only beaten two (at the time) winless teams. Surely with Oakland's homefield advantage and our recent performances against the Raiders we will be at least a TD underdog. A funny thing happened on the way to the O.co though as Jason Campbell broke his collarbone. What will that do to the spread? Will it even affect it at all? Let's find out in this week's installment of The Opening Line.
For fans, nothing quite lives up to Raider week, especially when the game has some significance in the division race. Oakland enters at 4-2 (1-0 vs. AFC West) and the Chiefs enter at 2-3 (0-1 AFC West) so this is obviously a big game for both teams in what should be a crowded AFC West come the latter portion of the season. As soon as I heard Jason Campbell's injury was serious, I immediately wondered what this would do to the line. The injury affected the line but more than I had thought it would.
Oakland opens as a 3.5 point favorite and the total is posted at 42. Considering where we were four weeks ago and how well the Raiders have played thus far this line would have been near impossible to imagine without a Campbell injury. But with Kyle Boller expected to take the reins on Sunday (consider the approximately 4 points factored in for homefield) and Vegas is giving us a solid chance in this one. I am going to pay very close attention to this line all week and I will provide updates based on line movements and how the public is leaning. I felt good about our chances before but I really like them now. With that said, let's take a look at some trends for the Chiefs-Raiders matchup. They aren't pretty for us, but successful trends lose every week.
OAKLAND is 5-1 ATS (against the spread) this season.
- OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against divisional opponents.
- OAKLAND is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 during Weeks 5-9.
- OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when the total is between 38.5 and 42.
- KANSAS CITY is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following 2 straight wins.
- KANSAS CITY is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 against divisional opponents.
OAKLAND is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and 25-56 ATS since 1993 against teams with a losing record.
Well some of those trends do look bad but injuries are the great equalizer (who knows better than us). I look forward to an exciting build up until gameday and I think if we can bottle up Adrian Peterson, then we can certainly do the same to DMC and force Boller to beat us through the air. As Cleveland learned today, and we learned last year, Special Teams will play a big role as well and we cannot allow Jacoby Ford to be a factor. Folks, this is a big one. And with San Diego traveling to New York for a 12:00 start (Arrowhead Standard Time), a win here is going to make Halloween at Arrowhead THE place to be in Week 8. One at time though. Let's get it. Thanks for checking in with The Opening Line!