Field Position Wins Games
by sunny D on Sep 9, 2010 7:37 AM CDT
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Print[From the FanPosts. Bumped up the time. -- Joel]
When an NFL team has better than average starting field position on offense, it wins 67.2% of the time. Those are the stats from all games 2004-2008. What things affect field position? The kicking game plays a huge role, along with turnovers, as well as the success of the offense and defense, of course. The average starting position is approximately the 31 yard line. That's for all possessions - not just after kickoffs. How will the Chiefs do with field position this year, and specifically next Monday night? Will Javier heat up under the lights?
www.kcchiefs.com Javier Arenas
While McCluster or even Charles could return some kicks, Arenas figures to be the man. During his college days at Alabama, his eight total return TDs (seven punts, one interception) were only one shy of the NCAA record. During his career at Alabama, Arenas returned 125 punt returns for 1,752 yards, ranking second in NCAA annals. He's no stranger to fielding a punt.
As a team, how did the Chiefs do returning the ball during the 2010 preseason vs. the 2009 regular season?
* Average punt return, 2009: 6.5 yds (27th)
* Average punt return, 2010: 10.3 yards (tied for 11th with the Chargers)
* Average kick return, 2009 21.6 (25th)
* Average kick return, 2010: 26.1 yds (11th. Teams ranged from 16.8 to 33.8)
The return game has definitely shown improvement this preseason. We've moved from the lowest fourth of the league to 11th. Granted, these are preseason numbers. But it's our only indicator right now.
As far as kicking the ball to the other team, Succop and Colquitt are a pretty good duo for getting some distance. Colquitt had the fourth best net average last year at 40.8 yards, and was second in the league with 41 punts inside the 20. (Of course, it wouldn't kill me to see that rank for "inside the 20" drop if it meant we punted less this year.)
Special Teams Coverage Units Under Steve Hoffman
Do you believe people on this year's roster for special teams will cover kicks as well or better than last year? I do. We still have McGraw. Copper, Horne (assuming he's active Monday), Greenwood and other linebackers seem to be getting after the special teams play this year. And Hoffman appears to be a good coach.
Steve Hoffman enters his second season as Kansas City’s special teams coach in 2010. ...his 21st season as an NFL coach. Kansas City’s special teams unit showed dramatic improvement under Hoffman’s guidance last season. The Chiefs improved to 12th in 2009 from 29th in 2008 in the comprehensive NFL special teams rankings compiled by Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News.
Turnovers Also Contribute to Field Position
The final point I'll make related to field position is the area of turnovers. Last year's 14-43 debacle in San Diego included 5 give-aways: 4 fumbles and an interception. Charles had the ball ripped from his grasp at the end of a run; Niswanger hiked a ball over Cassel's head; and Cassel fumbled twice - once when the ball simply slipped out of his hand as he pulled it back to pass. One would think most of those turnovers will go away with a team that's better prepared and playing at home. We are young, however, and there may be a few first-game jitters.
Field position is an important indicator when it comes to winning games. I'm optimistic that we will be better than average this Monday night. How about you?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Nice post!
I'd rather be a failure at something I love than a success at something I hate.
- George Burns
Nice job
Didn’t vote. Arenas can’t do it alone, on a consistant basis. As with all units consistancy from all 11 players will be our only chance at consistant success.
The most important thing you can do in life is help other people.
Blocking, for example
Agreed! Looks to me like he’s had some seams to work with so far this year. As far as motivation, I think when the 1 guys on the return unit all believe in one another (like the return guy’s ability to break one), they all give a little better effort.
I think it'll be a lot of Arenas
However, an improved D and a dose of McCluster would go a long ways as well.
I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.
Good points, MN
The first thoughts on field position are probably around a kicking game, I suspect. But the stats I found were the average starting positions for all drives. When our defense can force some three and outs, that obviously contributes to the part of the field we play on.
While the team with better field position wins 67% of the time...
they lose 33% of the time. Meanwhile, the team that scores more points wins 100% of the time.
Politics aside, Obama would of better been served, buying 5 "new" football teams.
I'll take the 2/3rd chance to win games...
but look at what Tampa Bay and Cleveland did… they were in the top 10 in Kickoff(1,7) and return(3,5) yard ave.
While it does help… it doesn’t guarantee a win.
Go Chiefs!!!!
I'll be happy if we can simply force teams to punt
Politics aside, Obama would of better been served, buying 5 "new" football teams.
Yup... and our offense and defense will need to step up.
Our offense needs to move the chains, and our defense needs to shutdown critical 3rd and longs. So far in preseason we have looked pretty average… which is better than last season.
Go Chiefs!!!!
I’ll be happy if we can simply force teams to punt
Didn’t we lead the league in forcing three and outs last season?
It doesn’t matter if you force the other team to punt if every time you do you punt it right back to them 45 seconds later.
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
That's my memory, too
So if we have a good running game and WRs that hang on to the ball more this year, that should help. Wildcat = wildcard. I’ll bet 10 percent of our plays are run from a wildcat formation Monday night. We’re just built for it.
Good examples, ravenhawk
Mostly I was interested in how our return game would impact our chances to win. But like you say, it’s no guarantee. HIV – do you have a stat source for your assertion that the team with more points wins 100% of the time?
29th to 12th with Wade and Lawrence returning.
Will be interesting to see if we move up again.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
"Damnit! They have both those guys back there coach!"
Coach: “Just squib it every time!”
Jamaal Charles...Enough said.
+2
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Sep 9, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Must be a high correlation
When a defense forces a turnover, it could be in the red zone and drag the average starting position below your own 31 yard line. But it could also be in the opposition’s end of the field, helping that average starting position quite a bit. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that when a team wins the turnover margin for a game, that those turnovers will cause the average starting position to be a lot better for that game.
For example, Hali’s tendency to go for a QB’s arm and cause a fumble is probably more valuable than a sack after which they still get to punt. So, 1 forced fumble is perhaps the equivalent of 4 sacks?
Arenas will help
but it wasn’t just our return men that led to bad field position the last couple of years. A defense that lets other teams drive on them and on offense that consistently goes three and out doesn’t help in the field position battle.
Agree 100%, Sunny D. Good job.
I’ve been bitching about this for years. Our field position has been absolutely killing us. Our Offense simply isn’t good enough to consistantly start in a “hole”. It makes a big difference when you’re starting a drive at the 35 or 40…than at the 20 (if you’re lucky), which is where we have been.
And whenever I talk return game…I must give my obligatory thanks to God that I’ll never have to see Bobby “Fair Catch” Wade return another punt for the Chiefs.
10 + wins in 2010. Chiefs SHOCK the NFL!!! Mark it down.
gotta mention colquit here
Arenas will directly effect our field position, but colquit should make san diegos worse
by DTforHOF on Sep 9, 2010 8:54 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Hopefully...
We will see much less of Dustin this year. Poor guy has been overworked.
10 + wins in 2010. Chiefs SHOCK the NFL!!! Mark it down.
Here's another blog entry with some stats and discussion
How important is turnover margin?
Is a turnover worth 77 yards? That actually seems reasonable.
Location, Location, Location.....heard that Cowher is looking into some puchasing some real estate?
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
Here's to Arenas and McCluster making that impact on our field position.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Sep 9, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
That would be a financial mistake since he's made his living off defense :)
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Sep 9, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
So you're saying that once he buys
He doesn’t like to move? :) Those steel curtains are heavy to pack.
Haha....Nice...
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Sep 9, 2010 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Arena's will be just as big of part as turning this team around as any other rookie.
Besides the Turnover Ratio. I think avg. starting field position is one of the single most important things in a football game. (and yes who scores the most pt’s, I get it.) Since seeing J.Arenas’s return his first two kick returns in the NFL. I almost have to hold my breathe on every KR now b/c of his ability to take it to the house. Only time I felt that was last year was when JC was back there. But IMO J.Arenas’s is going to emerge as one of the top 3 dangerous men in football. Haven’t even included what his potential on Defense is for us either.
"Without me, it's just aweso".- comment made by Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry.
Why is there only 1 total tie for the offense/defense?
Shouldn’t the Eagles and the Bengals boht have ties listed for Offense and Defense?
God typed "iddqd" before creating Jason Heyward.
interesting stats, sunny ... but I'll contend the game is won or lost at the line of scrimmage
… and that field position is a by-product of overall game play … control the LOS and you control the game and end up having better field position because of it
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
Come back, Jason!
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
LOS
field position is a by-product of overall game play
Good point. Sadly, I’d say our O and D lines are two of the weakest areas for the 2010 Chiefs. For all my optimism, those are the areas keeping me grounded regarding expectations this year. Here’s hoping that coaching will leverage our talent and that we hold our own on the LOS this year.
It is a good point to make though
That outstanding ST play can help mitigate some of the damage done by getting outplayed in the trenches.
((note: some of the damage))
Chiefs - back in the playoffs in 2011.
The A Factor
Like the sound of that, Spiderwomn69. Let’s try the other end of the alphabet for the new return stud.
so does that make it an automatic golden rule for cassel?:
1) don’t force anything on our own side of the field.
2) don’t throw any deep balls until we’re at or close to mid-field?
" It was great for me to get out of that city, because it was just a lot of jealousy, envy and hate that came with being a part of that city."
- LJ, after taking denial lessons from our current President
Sort of...
But it reminds me too much of Herm-ball. Don’t make mistakes. Keep the game close until the end. Hope for a winning field goal.
I agree with not forcing things. But I think an occasional long ball from just about anywhere is going to keep the safeties on their heels a little bit. And we’ll need that in order to get our RBs past the line of scrimmage.
eh. I'm starting to loathe the term herm-ball.
how does it differ from Marty-ball or basically many other offensive game plans?
I agree that we have to show the deep ball from everywhere, but I’m not sure we can do it often with the talent on the team.
IMO, most teams that show the deep ball do it more for the chances of drawing a pass interference call.
" It was great for me to get out of that city, because it was just a lot of jealousy, envy and hate that came with being a part of that city."
- LJ, after taking denial lessons from our current President
by chief Stevie_k on Sep 9, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Herm Ball
I actually haven’t seen the term Herm-ball much myself. I just sort of through it out there – not that it’s original. I was willing to give Herm another year with his young players. I liked his positive attitude and ethics. When he came, I thought I’d like the defensive-minded aspect. But he bordered on being anti-offense, which really bothered me. In my mind, Herm ball philosophy includes these principles:
1. Punting is okay. (Okay. I agree. But not as a point of emphasis.)
2. Keep the score low. That means we always have a chance. (The goal of the offense should be scoring points, Herm! The team with more points wins!)
3. Part of the job of the offense is to hang on to the ball and not score too fast so that the defense can rest. (I believe this dulled the sense of attack that’s necessary to move the chains. Ironically, by pulling back on the offensive reigns, it led to more 3 and outs, imho.)
As far as throwing deep with the hope of an interference call – that’s one of the positive outcomes that’s okay with me. Good points, Stevie.
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