After a 2-0 start, the Chiefs were only given a 17.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, after a third win, they are up 32 percentage points. While the win itself helped, the main reason why their odds improved so much was the quality of the play offensively and defensively.
Read AP, we could've told you that :)
This helps the Chiefs play better in future game simulations. The Chiefs also benefited from losses by the rest of the division. The slow-starting Chargers are still favored to ultimately take the division at 63.1 percent, but the Chiefs have to be given proper respect.
AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, and making the playoffs.
|AFC||Week 3 review||Playoff||Perc. chance|
|Team||WK 2||WK 3||Perc. diff.||Win div.|
|Kansas City Chiefs||17.6%||50.0%||32.4%||33.6%|
|San Diego Chargers||88.0%||76.6%||-11.4%||63.1%|
I think the stunning numbers here are how low Denver and Oakland are ranked after only 3 games.
I understand that this doesn't guarantee anything, otherwise, why play the games, however the numebrs are pretty interesting (if you click on the link) in that the Chiefs are at the top of the AFC list for making the largest move/improvement
Perhaps the numbers might change even more significantly in our bye-week if Arizona at 2-1 at home pulls a win over San Diego.