After reading many articles and all the discussions concerning the Chiefs and how "lucky" they are I decided it was time to point a few things out about luck in the NFL. Almost every game is going to have some luck involved in deciding the outcome of a game, whether it is from a fluke play or an interesting call from the officials. In this post I am going to point out some plays that many would call lucky involving the KC Chiefs and their opponents. After eliminating these so called lucky plays from our first 2 games I hope to prove that even without luck KC would have ended up on top.
Now before I get started I want to give my definitions of luck for this article. First thing is I don’t consider turnovers as lucky. I believe that a turnover is either a good play by a defender or a temporary mental lapse by an offensive player. So I’m not going to consider them lucky plays but I will address them at the end of both scenarios. Now the first type of play I’m going to consider lucky is any play over 30 yards. It seems like large gains are pretty hard to accomplish and many people point them out when discussing how KCs winning is a fluke or lucky. Another thing that I will consider lucky is if a controversial call goes towards a particular team. A bad or controversial call can be considered lucky because that can change the momentum of a drive or even a game. The final thing I would call lucky are the fluke plays that should never happen and end up making every highlight reel. Now remember this is for entertainment purposes only. I do realize that if any one of these plays had changed then the whole game would have changed and all these scenarios would be completely different but I hope you find it interesting regardless.
KC vs. SD
The first “lucky” play I’m going to discuss is for SD. In the first quarter Gates caught a pass for 34 yards and got SD down to the 5 yard line. 3 plays later they scored a touchdown and went up by 7 points. Now without that big catch who knows what would have happened, they could have easily ended up punting and getting no points at all on that drive. Taking that play away I believe would cost SD 7 points.
The next lucky play is J. Charles’ 56 yard run at the end of the 1st quarter. Now if I take that away
KC would also possibly lose 7 points so it has pretty much been a wash at this point. Both teams scored a TD on a lucky play.
The next lucky play I’m also giving to KC. That would be McClusters’ 94 yard punt return for a touch down. I’m just going to pretend it never happened and we ended up punting the ball ourselves. So after eliminating those lucky plays KC would be up 7-0 at halftime because earlier in the second quarter they did score after that fumble recovery caused by D.Johnson.
The final lucky play I’m giving either team is for SD. In the third quarter Naanee catches a 59 yard pass for a TD. Without that play it is very possible that KC could have walked away with a 7-0 victory over SD. That is what I see the end result being after taking away both teams’ lucky plays.
Now I know some people would consider the TD KC scored after the fumble in the second quarter lucky but again I’m not counting turnovers as lucky because somebody causes them. And I know that had any one of the above events changed the whole dynamics of the game could have shifted but I’m just trying to shine some light on the lucky plays.
KC vs. Cleveland
The first lucky play I’m going to point out in this game is the fumble recovery KC got 5:30 seconds into the game. Now I know I said turnovers don’t count as lucky but many people said this was a very controversial call and KC walked away with 3 points because it went their way. So for the sake of argument I’m going to take those 3 points away from KC because it was a controversial call.
The next lucky play in this game was a pass at the end of the second quarter to B.Watson of Cleveland that ended up going for 44 yds. Now without that play there is a good chance Cleveland wouldn’t have scored any points but to be nice I’m still going to give them 3 for that drive. One thing I’m also going to point out about the 44 yard play is how we held Cleveland to 3rd and goal on our 4 yard line. Then Vrabel got called for Illegal Contact which automatically gave them a first down and moved them to the 2 yard line. That play could be considered “lucky” by some giving Cleveland a new set of downs at the goal line. They ended up scoring their TD 2 plays later.
KC got the next lucky play when B. Flowers intercepted a pass and returned it 33 yards for a TD. Again I know I don’t count turnovers as lucky but the 33 yard return is over my 30 yard rule so instead of 7 points I’m going to give KC 3 on this play. I am assuming that we could have at least moved the ball 7 or 8 yards after the interception and made the field goal.
The last lucky play in the Cleveland game is of course the bomb to Cleveland’s J.Cribbs for a 65 yard TD. Now I’m going to take that play away and give them the benefit of the doubt that they could have gotten into field goal range and put another 3 points on the board giving Cleveland a 6-3 half time lead.
Now the rest of the game there were no plays that I would consider lucky. So considering that we held Cleveland scoreless in the second half while kicking 2 field goals ourselves I put the final score of this game at KC 9 Cleveland 6. Another victory for KC.
Well I’m sure there are a lot of people out there that are still going to call us lucky and that is fine with me. I’d agree with them that we have had our share of luck, but so have our opponents. I guess the difference is when you exceed expectations experts will always try and make up excuses to explain why they are wrong saying it was the weather, luck or a fluke. But no matter what their excuses we are still 2-0.