The Math Just Doesn't Add Up

that said, I also DON’T think it’s realistic to expect (much) more than that … while 9 or even 10 W’s is a POSSIBILITY there’s ALSO the possibility of rookie mistakes, bad calls, bad bounces, confusion, obfuscation and just plain old bad play that kocks us back to 6 W’s …

let’s not forget that other teams also made FA pickups and had their own “omg what a great draft!” and will be looking to improve (and the teams that are already at a higher plateau that we are, which is most of the league, will be looking to stay where they are) … I really think we’re a year away from truly competing for the division (and playoffs) and most likely two yrs from any serious, deep playoff run

I have absolutely no doubt that the team will be better this year in MOST areas … unlike many in the Koolaid Drinking Wild-Eyed Optimist Club I still have a good number of reserbations about the team overall, not the least of which, as you know, is the Front 7 and especially the DLine

that said, improved we shall be (or most certainly SHOULD be) and that in itself will be a welcome sign of things to come, and should make for a good year of fun games, great competition and a renewed sense of pride for both players and fans

I just don’t see Mo Leggs beating Arenas out for the Nickel position. Mo Leggs just doesn’t seem to play very smart football. Go watch 2 of the touchdowns that Miles Austin had from the KC / Dallas game last year. Leggett gave up both of those touchdowns. He could have easily wrapped Austin up for small gains, but instead he tried to make a play on the ball, when he wasn’t really in position to do that in the first place. That would be bearable if he had good safety help, but Mike Brown roaming the backfield on his Rascal scooter isn’t good safety help.

Weis is runnin the exact same offense as Haley did last year? Same terminology, routes, etc?

I will guaran-damn-tee you Crennell isn’t running the same D as Pendergast…Remember there are different schools on the 3-4. Pendergast isn’t from the Parcells/Bellichek school of Defense per se.

I would be extremely surprised if there isn’t a lot of change in scheme on both sides of the ball, and an adjustment to tendencies for the players. It’s almost like a new coaching staff just took over…The players know what Haley expects, but they’re just now getting know the offensive and defensive playcallers.

Granted similar circumstances are taking place in Oakland (new OC) and Denver (new DC) but making the assumption that any new coordinator isn’t changing the "system’ isn’t supported by any facts, it’s just the opposite, Weis and Crennel are clearly upgrades, but they’re going to make changes, that’s what they were brought in to do…

Reading what the “experts” think isn’t going to get you much information about this team. AP is probably your best bet to find the information you want and need(if you can weed out the homerists). The fact is this is a team that has won 6 games in the last two years so its safe to say that most “experts” probably havent paid much attention to them or seen them. They tend to depend on very generic box scores or stats and try to let that prove their points.

A couple notes on your observations from other sources, discussions, etc.

1. The offensive line is much much better then last year and already was at the end of last year without any additions. In the last five games of last season the Chiefs only gave up 7 sacks and they ran the ball extremely well(that balance usually goes hand in hand). Thats with games against a top 8 defense in Cincy, a top 7 sack defense in Cleveland and two games against the NFL sack champ. I think alot of people around here would agree a bad run game, last minute offensive overhaul and a blocking scheme change set us back for the first 2/3 of the season but it started to come around at the end of the year.

The weakest link on the oline was definetly the interior add to that Weigmann, who many believe is a depth player, whos coming off a Pro Bowl season just two seasons ago in the same scheme and Lilja(who I wouldnt go so far to say is injury prone) and Asamoah who was considered by many as the second best guard in the draft and you can see the oline isnt as bad as you might think.

2. WR has question marks but I wouldnt say an area of concern. Bowe has the physical tools to turn it around its just more of a mental thing for him and theres no reason why Chambers can’t continue to contribute as he did last year.

With McCluster I think you have it all wrong. You could debate that adjusting to the NFL might take him some time or an argument like that but calling him an undersized former running back is way off. He’s not undersized at all in height, size, weight, and definetly not in strength. He doesn’t play small and is extremely elusive and his acceleration is what makes him special. Also he’s actually a WR turned offensive weapon. His freshman and sophomore year he was a WR, junior year he rushed for just over 100 carries and received for 40 and senior year again was 160+ rushes and 40+ receptions. To call him a running back would be offbase.

3. To say Cassel isnt good enough to lead them to a playoff berth is just a ludicrous comment. You can bring up the fact he led the Pats to an 11-5 season or the fact that its a team game and no one man leads anyone anywhere. Matt Cassel cant but Mark Sanchez can? Not even worth debating.

4. The defensive front seven is the weakest link. I’m not sure what anyone expects there but I think the realists here on AP will just be holding our breath and praying it works. They should be better with Crennel and another year under their belt and its way too early to write off dorsey or jackson yet but its a wait and see for the defense.

I think your prediction for the outcome of the season for the Chiefs is pretty realistic. If this team doesn’t win 7-8 games with the schedule they have and the improvements, both in improvements and added personel, that have been made then something is seriously wrong.

And I agree with him. I think you’re off-target on the interior, which should be solid and deep.

Chiefs will START the season with much more potent run threats and this will help the play-action passing game, especially if the WRs play to the whistle, which is ONE thing you can count on from this Haley-coached group. Weis will take over the offense and tutor Cassel (his specialty) and Haley will have more time to work with the WRs (HIS specialty).

Anyhoo, I think it’s anybody’s guess. I don’t even want to speculate until I see some #1s versus #1s in preseason. Quite a few new guys and developmental guys I need to eyeball for myself.

Uttering any Walter Football quotes as evidence in these parts will get you a severe flogging and a week in the hole. This punishment is called getting Bulaga-ed. Let me know if you don’t get that reference.

Lilja has started 53 of 70 games in his last 5 seasons. And he played in another 6. He did spend 2008 on the PUP list… but he also started 19 games for the Colts in 2009, including the Super Bowl. Maybe it is hit and miss… but he started 19 games for the Colts last year, passed the Chiefs physical, and hasn’t missed any of the OTAs in KC yet. If he stays healthy, then we have an experienced, talented veteran at RG. I’m not going to hold one year of injury against him.

McCluster played a lot of WR in college. In 2008 he accumulated 625 receiving yards, and averages 14 yards per catch. In 2009 he accumulated 520, and averaged 11 ypc. He also ran for over 1100 yards in 2009. Denver and the rest of the West is going to get McCluster fucked this season :) Yeah. That’s going to catch on well.

You are correct about the pass rushing situation. The Chiefs have to scheme and use a lot of stunts and different packages that implement our young, talented DBs (especially Berry and Arenas) to try and pressure opposing QBs. Also Derrick Johnson has to get more involved… but I’m sure you don’t want to see any more of him though. LOL.

8-8 is a good prediction. Deep down that’s what I think, but for now, while we’re allowed off season giddiness, I’m saying 10-6 and a playoff berth. Check that… 19-0 and a trophy.

indeed, as kabrink said, we have a LOT of regulars who maintain a “middle ground” and a healthy dose of optimism balanced by a generous helping of reality …

many of us are Koolaid Fanatics who see only the silver lining and can’t see the clouds … a few are more on the pessimistic side and are calling for yet another 4 W season based on … well, something, though it’s hard to pinpoint what

MOST of us are realistic enough to accept that the team still has holes to fix and work to do, some on-field chemistry lab to get thru and more patching and painting and final touches to apply before we can talk about division championships and playoff runs … I’m one of those (though many would call me a pessimist, others call me things not appropriate for a family blog so we’ll leave it at that)

good comments, BTID and catch you soon, and good luck to your team as well (except out head to head matches, of course)

I meant to say that I think Cassel is so incredibly underrated. I think he is definitely good enough to lead a team to the playoffs and maybe more.

o-line is one of the consensus biggest worries for KC. I think it something to be monitored. I don’t see those two people significantly dropping the number of sacks but I think they be better compared to last years unit.

Idk about that 16-0 theory :)

Finally, Walterfootball.com SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’m with you. If players play to their potentional and with Weis and Haleys as the braintrust this offense has the potential to be extremely scary for the opposition. Now its just a matter of will it all come together.

The math just doesn’t add up?

And I would reverse the Cleveland and 49er results.

Basic theme of this season, if I had to pick one: Early struggles and strong finish.

SD here W – Chiefs’ secondary will be tested, with or without VJ. This one’s a tossup, to me. Only KC fans see this as a probable win for KC.
At Clev L – I think KC will want payback for ‘09 humiliation. Tossup or even KC win.
SF here W – Tossup. I think Singletary gets it, and SF may be a powerhouse.
At Indy L – I think this team may’ve hit the wall. Yeah, they made the AFCC, but they’re showing gaps. Folks ain’t afraid ta blitz Peyton any more, and KC should be able to dirty his jersey.
At Hou L – Pivotal game. I think KC will know enough about Houston and themselves to cause them problems.
Jax here W – I keep thinking Del Rio’s teams are on the verge of breaking out. Maybe it’s just man-love for Jones-Drew.
Buff here W – It depends on if ANYthing they did this offseason helped them, and if the D that played New England lights out for 2 quarters is once again whole. IIRC, BUFF lost some very good people very early last year, and if they come back healthy, that’s a defense to ride the river with.
At Oak W – No idea. They could be tough as nails as late as Game 9.
At Den L – By Game 10, the KC secondary might be tough as nails (or they might be contemplating suicide), having faced the best offensive skill players the NFL can bring. Does Clady come back at 100%? Does Denver stay injury-free 10 games deep into the season? For all the good things McDaniels has done, they still look paper-thin (School me if I’m wrong, here.) in many spots, and the wheels could come off in quite a few highly likely ways (again, imHo). Conventional pundits just think DEN will struggle to stretch the field.
Ariz here W – Boy, I dunno. My take on Whisenhunt is that it wasn’t exactly like Haley succeeded as OC in SPITE of Whis. GREAT test for the revamped secondary, Crennel’s leadership, and bragging rights for Haley over his old boss is in reach.
At Sea W – Pete Carroll? 1st year? Ya kiddin’ me? C’mon.
Den here W – This would be the one I’d hazard to say Chiefs would win, if we’re going to assume KC and DEN split. As critical as I was of Denver, above, McDaniels is a smart young bastiche, and after one season, he’s doubled Haley’s win total.
At SD L – Here’s where I’m more sketch. I think this is a more likely Chiefs win than Game 1 is, because I think the Chiefs have some rookies that will be playing like veterans by this time, and the Chiefs will have more depth to offset adversity.
Ten here W – Man. No idea. Almost HAVE to run nickely, to have enough speed on the field to account for VY AND CJ. And if the Chiefs do THAT, TEN might be able to overpower KC.
Oak here W – Same as with DEN and SD, I think KC’s depth advantage and Oak’s reliance on aging veterans at DE, in particular, could be decisive. I’m not saying this IS the year Richard Seymour hits the wall, but I’d EXPECT it to be, if KC had been the ones who paid him a king’s ransom.