Let me start by saying that this is not one of my Kool Aid posts. I was originally planning on using this post to show AP some stats that would give us some idea of what to expect in terms of improvement with our new coordinators. I decided to compare their stats from previous seasons with what we have seen here in KC the last few years. However, the results weren't exactly what I was expecting. After the jump I'll show you what I found. I usually like to come to some sort of conclusion on my posts, but this time I'm not trying to sway you to the positive or negative. I would really just like to know what your thoughts and expectations are on these two.
Crennel has five years of experience as a defensive coordinator and another four years as a head coach. In his five years as a defensive coordinator (one in Cleveland followed by four in New England) Crennel's defenses gave up an average of 325.14 YPG and 19.18 PPG. If you include the defensive stats from his four years as head coach of the Browns those numbers go up to 333.71 YPG and 20.3 PPG. His best season ever was in 2003 with NE where their defense gave up 291.6 YPG and 14.9 PPG. His worst season was the one year he spent as the Brown's DC in 2000 where they gave up 352.7 YPG and 26.2 PPG.
So how do those numbers compare with what we have now in KC? Well that depends on what numbers you want to look at.
First, lets look at what we have averaged over the past four seasons (since the start of the "Herm Years"). Over the last four years we have averaged 357.4 YPG and 23.65 PPG. So even if we include the head coaching years in Crennels stats it is an improvement.
Crennel 00-08 333.71 YPG 20.3 PPG
Chiefs 06-09 357.4 YPG 23.65 PPG
So if we just go off averages Crennel should improve our defense in both YPG and PPG allowed. But is it that simple?
Clancy Pendergast would argue it's not.
Now I'm not a Pendergast fan at all, but if we're simply looking at the numbers for Crennel then we should do the same for Pendergast. In his five years in Arizona his defenses gave up 325.6 YPG and 24.02 PPG. The year before he arrived the Chiefs gave up 393.2 YPG and 27.5 PPG. The result? KC's defense under Pendergast gave up 388.2 YPG and 26.5 PPG. Numbers that are much closer to the Chief's previous numbers then Pendergast's.
So the question is, how much can we expect Romeo to improve our numbers from last year? I have said before (as have many other AP posters) that just having Crennel on our staff would improve our defense. Is that fair? It sure didn't work for Pendergast in one season (again, not that I think Pendergast is as good as Crennel, I'm just trying to look at the numbers and see how the coordinator can improve things).
I was hoping maybe if I dug into Romeo's numbers a little more I would see that his teams were great against the run, thereby giving hope that he alone could fix our front seven. The good news is that his last two seasons in NE his run defense was great finishing ranked 4th and 6th in the NFL. However, if you look at all his run defenses as a DC and HC he finished ranked 29th, 19th, 31st, 4th, 6th, 30th, 29th, 27th, and 28th. Those numbers don't give me a ton of confidence that we can just assume that he will fix our front seven all on his own (and in one season).
Okay, now let's look at the offense and Charlie Weis.
For the sake of Weis's numbers I can't include his ND stats (good as they are) because it's just not the same as the NFL. However, between the Jets and Patriots, Weis has 8 years of experience as an NFL Offensive Coordinator. In those 8 years his teams averaged 316.35 YPG and 22.54 PPG. Believe it or not, his best year was not with the Patriots but with the Jets in 1998 when they averaged 357.2 YPG and 26 PPG. His worst year was his first year in NE when they averaged 285.7 YPG and 17.2 PPG.
So what can he do for a team that averaged 303.2 YPG and 18.4 PPG last year?
Todd Haley came to KC last year with even better numbers as Arizona's OC (354.95 YPG and 25.95 PPG) then Weis has. In fact, his two year average in Arizona is about the same as Weis's best year ever. So last year the Chiefs averaged 50 yards less and over 7 points less then what Haley had done before. Now to be fair, Haley was trying to handle being a first year head coach and took over as OC right before the season started.
So what's the point? I'm not sure.
I am 100% sure that we are better off with Crennel as our DC over Pendergast. I am also 100% sure we are better off with Weis as the OC and Haley just being the HC then we were last year when Haley was trying to do both. I am just not sure how much of an improvement we will see in their first year. Obviously, you have to factor in how the roster has changed as well. In my opinion, we have improved the offensive roster a lot (Jones, Lilja, Weigman, Asamoah, McCluster, and Moeaki). On the defensive side of the ball we have really helped the secondary (Berry, Arenas, and Lewis) but probably have not done enough to the front seven (Smith and Sheffield).
So what do you think AP? Will they make a huge impact this season? Maybe just a small step forward? None at all? Are these numbers totally worthless? What are you expecting?