Preseason Forecast Guide: First Draft
by jbrown63 on May 29, 2010 10:56 PM CDT
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PrintHello Arrowhead Pride, John here with the first draft of my contribution to the Niners Nation Preseason Forecast Guide. Please read through this first draft, vote in the attached poll, and post your thoughts in the comments. Here we go:
Headline: A great offseason has many Chiefs fans feeling optimistic about the team's direction.
Key Additions:
Position | Player | Method of Acquiring | Previous Team
C | Casey Wiegmann | FA | Broncos
HB | Thomas Jones | FA | Jets
G | Ryan Lilja | FA | Colts
DT | Shaun Smith | Untendered RFA | Bengals
WR | Jerheme Urban | Untendered RFA | Cardinals
LB | Cory Greenwood | CFL | NA
Key Losses:
Position | Player | Method of Loss | New Team
WR | Bobby Wade | FA | Redskins
G/C | Wade Smith | FA |Texans
G | Andy Alleman | Untendered RFA | Colts
Continued after the jump.
Depth Chart
QB- Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, Matt Gutierrez
HB- Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Kolby Smith
FB- Mike Cox
TE- Tony Moeaki, Leonard Pope, Brad Cottam
WR1- Dwayne Bowe
WR2- Chris Chambers, Quinten Lawrence
WR3- Jerheme Urban, Dexter McCluster
LT- Branden Albert, Barry Richardson
LG- Brian Waters, Jon Asamoah
C- Casey Wiegmann, Rudy Niswanger
RG- Ryan Lilja, Jon Asamoah
RT- Ryan O'Callaghan, Ike Ndukwe
LE- Tyson Jackson, Wallace Gilberry
RE- Glenn Dorsey, Alex Magee, Bobby Greenwood
DT- NA
NT- Shaun Smith, Ron Edwards
LOLB- Mike Vrabel, Andy Studebaker
LILB- Derrick Johnson, Demorrio Williams
RILB- Corey Mays, Jovan Belcher
ROLB- Tambi Hali, Cory Greenwood
LCB- Brandon Flowers, Mike Richardson
RCB- Brandon Carr, Javier Arenas, Maurice Leggett
SS- Jarrad Page, Kendrick Lewis, DaJuan Morgan
FS- Eric Berry, Jon McGraw
K- Ryan Succop
KR- Javier Arenas, Quinten Lawerence
PR- Javier Arenas, Quinten Lawerence
LS- Thomas Gafford
2010 Draft Recap
Best Pick: Eric Berry, Tennessee
"This was an easy pick. Berry was widely regarded as one of the safest picks in the draft, and has all of the tools to be an elite safety in this league."
Keep an eye on: Dexter McCluster, Mississippi
"Dexter McCluster brings speed and play-making ability to a Chiefs offense that struggled most of last season, and could have a great season working out of the slot."
Selections:
Round | Position | Player | College | Height | Weight
1 | S | Eric Berry | Tennessee | 5' 11.625" | 211
Great pick, should be an elite safety.
2 | RB/WR | Dexter McCluster | Mississippi | 5' 8.75" | 172
Should see plenty of time as the slot receiver.
2 | CB | Javier Arenas | Alabama | 5' 8.625" | 197
Great return man, could also play nickel CB this season.
3 | G | Jon Asamoah | Illinois | 6' 5" | 315
Will backup both G spots, solid pick.
3 | TE | Tony Moeaki | Iowa | 6' 3" | 245
Could be really good, slipped due to injury issues.
5 | S | Kendrick Lewis | Mississippi | 5' 11.625" | 198
Provides depth at safety.
5 | LB | Cameron Sheffield | Troy | 6' 2.375" | 257
Provides depth at linebacker.
Opening
Opening Paragraph:
The Kansas City Chiefs had a great offseason, finding potentially great players to fill some of their many holes, and adding successful coordinators in Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel to the coaching staff. Each will have their work cut out for them, as the Chiefs finished last season ranked 23rd in overall offense and 29th in overall defense.
One of the biggest problems for the 2009 Chiefs was dropped passes, as three Chiefs finished in the top ten for drop percentage, according to Pro Football Focus. This issue could be mostly resolved going into the 2010 season, as two of those receivers are now gone, veteran Chris Chambers had the eighth lowest drop percentage last season, and rookie additions Dexter McCluster and Tony Moeaki project to be fairly reliable targets.
Offense:
Coordinator: Charlie Weis
Style: New England Midwest
What we know: With new OC Charlie Weis, the Chiefs offense will be similar to the Patriots 2001-2004 offenses. Both Weis and head coach Todd Haley favor the Erdhardt offensive philosophy, which features a handful of plays which are altered with formations and personnel groupings based on opponent scouting, and uses the run to set up play-action passing. Kansas City will be well served by their strong running back corp, featuring Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
What we don't: Kansas City had a huge problem with dropped balls last season, as well as with keeping Matt Cassel upright. Can Kansas City's receivers figure out how to hang onto the ball this season? Can the offensive line keep Cassel vertical long enough to hit his receivers? The Chiefs added C Casey Wiegmann and G Ryan Lilja, who have both played at high levels recently, but Wiegmann is 36 and Lilja reportedly failed a physical before being cut by the Colts, so it remains to be seen how much of an improvement they can make to the line.
Defense:
Coordinator: Romeo Crennel
Style: Aggressive 3-4
What we know: Kansas City has assembled a great secondary, which should allow new DC Romeo Crennel to be very aggressive with the front seven in passing situations. With the strong secondary and the lack of an elite pass rusher, expect to see a lot of creative blitzs, confusing opposing quarterbacks and leading to sacks and turnover opportunities.
What we don't: The Chiefs have several question marks at the linebacking and defensive line positions. Who will step up at NT? Can Derrick Johnson earn a starting role at the ILB position and a new contract with the Chiefs? Crennel did a great job with average linebackers in New England, but can he have similar success in Kansas City?
Special Teams:
Coach: Steve Hoffman
Information: Special Teams looks to be a strength for Kansas City this season. Kicker Ryan Succop is reliable, P Dustin Colquitt has a nice, strong leg, and CB/PR/KR Javier Arenas provides the dynamic return man that Kansas City has been missing in recent years.
Coaching Information:
Head Coach: Todd Haley
Assistant Head Coach: Maurice Carthon
Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Weis
Wide Receivers: Richie Anderson
Thight Ends: Bernie Parmalee
Offensive Line: Bill Muir
Assistant Offensive Line: Pat Perles
Offensive Quality Control: Nick Sirianni
Defensive Coordinator: Romeo Crennel
Defensive Assistant: Adam Zimmer
Defensive Line: Anthony Pleasant
Linebackers: Gary Gibbs
Assistant Linebackers: Adam Zimmer
Defensive Backs: Emmitt Thomas
Defensive Quality Control: Otis Smith
Head Strength and Conditioning: Mike Clark
Assistant Strength and Conditioning: Brent Salazar
*****************************************************************************************************
Please vote in the poll and provide feedback in the comments section.
Note 1: Please be aware that once I submit my final draft to Ninjames, he will be joined by Fooch and DrewK in an editing/formatting session, so the "ultimate" final draft will be somewhat different from mine.
Note 2: If I counted correctly, my roster projection contains 52 players. Who do you think should be the 53rd man? Is their anybody in my projection that you feel should not or will not be a part of the final 53?
Note 3: Sorry about how terrible the Key Additions, Key Losses, and Draft Selections sections look, the FanPost refused to use my formatting, reverting back to looking like crap every time that I tried to fix it. Must be something wrong with the HTML.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Sorry it's so long,
perhaps I should have broken it up into two or three FanPosts.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
yea was very long but good still.
Lead organizer of the annual 7 round live mock draft at MtD and Moderator
by TheAngelsColts on May 29, 2010 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Rec'd
It wasn’t too long. It had all in information that you’d look for in a good write up over a team. I’m happy with it. Thanks!
Jamaal Charles...Enough said.
No, thank you!
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Great post
I think the 53rd man will be justin Cole olb from San Jose state.
Everybody pulls for David, nobody roots for Goliath.
Wilt Chamberlain
by MJU-57 on May 29, 2010 11:29 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
First off, I see Page leaving, with DaJuan Morgan taking his place...
and Sheffield playing ILB and OLB at times, also Washington playing as a reserve Safety.
by gregorychief on Jun 1, 2010 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Great post
I think the 53rd man will be justin Cole olb from San Jose state.
Everybody pulls for David, nobody roots for Goliath.
Wilt Chamberlain
by MJU-57 on May 29, 2010 11:30 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Did a very good job
These are the main other players to watch out for to fight over that 53 spot. Terrane Copper, Cameron Sheffield, Donald Washington, Colin Brown, Reshard Langsford, probably in that order. Copper is just hard to keep off the field. He is a dominant if not the dominant play maker we have on special teams outside of McGraw and the kickers and return men. Was always suiting up on Sundays last season, and was missed the days he didnt make it. We drafted Sheffield to rush the passer, and if he can make plays in practice leading up to the season he will probably make it on Sundays. That is one definant area we are lacking in, even if the players ahead of him on the depth chart are more NFL ready, I just don’t see Andy Studebaker and Cory Greenwood (might play inside) getting after the quarterback. If Washington has improved this offseason, he could see some playing time. With the athletic ability he posseses, he might back up as a safety, cornerback, or get in on some special teams plays. If he hasn’t progressed though, he might not make the team. Both Colin Brown and Reshard Langsford with improvement could see the field because of the position needs. Maybe Asomoah isn’t ready to suit up, and with three aging veterans in the middle of the OL he could assume a backup role. Langsford is competing at a position that is full of question marks. He could assume a backup role, with a slim chance of starting, if the Chiefs can’t get Jarrad Page back in the building. He is at that point in his career where it is now or never, and he could make some leaps if he works hard enough. Also, I might add that I don’t think Bobby Greenwood or Maurice Legget will make the 52 man roster. Legget failed miserably at every oppurtuity he was given last year, and Greenwood is a practice field guy. The Chiefs might need to get some more security at the NT position, because if Smith or Edwards goes down, then we will need somebody to rotate with. I could see Derrick Lokey with his run stopping and initial burst make a run at a spot, or one of the other young guys steppin in
Leggett did not look all that great.
Judging by how Clancy employed Leggett, especially early in the season, I think the lack of WR competition had Clancy thinking Leggett was a world-beater. I’m still not certain of Leggett’s ceiling, but at least there’s more speed and explosiveness in the WR corps for him to sharpen his claws. Inasmuch as the cream tends to rise to the top, Leggett STILL might figure prominently in the KC D this season. If he does, I hope he’s ratcheted-up his play.
I’m not certain of how Leggett was slowed by injury. I think he looked pretty bad when he was healthy, too.
Bobby Wade made a splash when nobody realized he was the one KC WR who was likely to catch the ball. After his big splash, defenses took him more seriously, and pretty much silenced him. Wade’s early success highlights just how badly the WR corps was hurting before he came along.
I still think Copper might develop into something much better on regular offense than most of us think. He’s a FOOTBALL PLAYER, first and foremost. He has size, speed, and toughness to catch the slant over the middle, and be a handful for DBs to tackle. A higher level of execution from QB and front 5, and he may get the ball in better situations and have a breakthrough season. I do NOT think the KC WR corps strikes fear across the league, but a year of raking the roster and the waiver wire, plus the handful of KC vets (like Copper) who survived the rake, they’re a significantly stronger group, mentally and physically than a year ago.
And just as the WRs are giving our DBs better practice partners, so are the DBs giving the same to our WRs.
While I eagerly await training camp reports from the 7-on-7’s and 11-on-11’s, I’ll have little inkling of how much improvement there is until they face real opposition. Reports that sound bad/good are likely to be very misleading, as players are shifted in and out of the lineup. And you never know when the light switch might be flipped (on or off) on a given player. Back in the River Falls days, they first scrimmaged against the Vikes. They discontinued that last year, and I’m not sure if they’re scrimmaging with anybody before Preseason. Anybody know?
If Bobby Greenwood is out,
then who takes his spot? My projection already only has seven d-linemen, so he would need to be replaced with a DE on the roster.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
I don't know who the 53 will be?
But it looks like we might have to let some guys walk that can play, but there are better guys in front of them. This is a nice change from the Herm Years where we let guys walk because of their age and not because we had someone better at their position.
by bringbacktheglory on May 30, 2010 8:31 AM CDT reply actions
We are in the same situation with the 49ers.
It is nice to finally be on the rise.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Cory Greenwood would be a back up ILB
Sheffield might back up Tamba on the rush OLB spot.
Javier Arenas should start at nickel CB
Might add McCluster back with Arenas as KR
The 5th Dimension
#29 Eric Berry
by BAMFSpecialOps on May 30, 2010 11:59 AM CDT reply actions
Alright.
Do you think that they will carry nine LBs on the 53-man roster? I also think that Javier Arenas will start at nickel CB, perhaps I should list him behind Brandon Carr to reflect that belief.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
In my mind, it's a tossup between runnin' with extra DBs or runnin' with extra LBs.
I’m partial to the extra DBs, myself. Plan to cut a lot of LBs, and wait as long as possible to do it, with a bias towards keeping the bigger LBs. Plan on runnin’ nickel 50% or more of the time. Maybe Gales learns to play at NFL speed, and Gales and Sheffield become a 1-2 punch as rush LBs who mop up ballcarriers on the way. I know matt_grbac would like that.
Last year it looked like Gales and Jackson were first taught how to protect themselves (keep their feet) on the field, and that was about as far as the training got by season’s start, with Jackson getting a clear minutes advantage over other rookies such as Gales, Magee, Washington. Just because of matt_grbac, I can’t help but notice Gales is still hanging. At 6’5" and 260 lbs, you’d like to think you could find a job for this kid. And maybe one or two of last year’s rookies still had some growing to do.
Does it seem like things have settled-down on DL? Could this be the position group to give up 1 to a position group that’s getting the power-rake treatment? I think that stability and consistency on the DL is fundamental to tinkering with all the other toys Crennel has.
50 % nickel would seem to allow for less D-lineman
I would keep the most versatile lineman that can play DT and DE both.
Rule 49. " Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on May 31, 2010 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd keep the speed and the stout on the field, in the spirit of the 4-2-5.
Give up a LB, but don’t give up on the bigs, entirely.
I WANT to think the rookie thumper (Sheffield) will be rolling up the line from the strong side, but Hali's backup makes sense.
They didn’t quite hit with McBride, but maybe they would’ve with Crennel calling the shots. Dunno. Something I’m looking for is to see more of a hybrid DE/LB player at SOLB and more of a hybrid DE/DT role for Jackson. I think it would suit current talent better There’s significantly more speed in the d-backfield, and I’d like to see ’em get more stout up front, possibly at the expense of 1 or 2 LBs who got a lotta minutes last season.
What did the KC D lack last season? Stout up front and speed (and explosion) behind that. Speed appears to have been addressed (Don’t look for McGraw to be starting.). They also added stout with Shaun Smith (gives them an actual rotation inside). Could be that with no other changes, their LBs get more involved against the run and in the pass rush, with less to worry about in coverage. The bigger LBs on the roster might receive more attention and playing time, as the need for BIG becomes a higher priority than the need for speed.
Greenwood’s an interesting player. A young (inexpensive) guy who might be every bit as athletic as DJ.
I expect to see some Arenas off the edge, too. He may win the starting spot from Carr. Arenas is built like a brick shithouse. He may be BETTER under NFL rules than he was in college. He’s one of those little guys who can jack people up on contact, and his trademark maneuver appears to be blitzing off the edge. I’m not particular as to who starts. I can just as easily see Carr doing some good things at nickel, same as the rest of y’all see Arenas doing. Best of all worlds is development to the point where KC DBs go 5 or 6 deep in Dangerous.
What do you think about Stude
tryin out at ILB? He is not really a rush threat at OLB, has good size/speed which he showed off last year
The 5th Dimension
#29 Eric Berry
by BAMFSpecialOps on May 31, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Seems natural to get Vrabel and Studi to continue as a 1-2 combo, but from ILB.
I think Crennel played Vrabel mostly at ILB, and last year neither Vrabel nor Studebaker looked like huge pass rush threats.
Nice write-up and rec
Cameron Sheffield would be the add.
I would keep Copper over McGraw as a special teamer.
I like the additions of the offensive and defensive philosophies in the post:)
Don’t see that much in team write-ups.
Rule 49. " Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
Yeah, the final guide should be really good.
Ninjames over at Niners Nation came up with this idea, and the final guide will have all 32 teams covered in at least this much detail, plus each teams 2010 schedule.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
I think Copper and McGraw will both be hard to get rid of, because of ST AND their regular O- and D- experience.
They’re just too versatile not to keep.
Some of the youngsters have to step up.
DO you see the Chiefs cutting 2010 drafted players?
Rule 49. " Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on May 31, 2010 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
It could happen.
But maybe the Chiefs keep more ‘tweeners and cut down the number of smaller LBs. When you talk team speed, getting bigger at LB and running the extra DB achieves that, and maybe gives up little or nothing in terms of stout. I’m no expert, though, Steve. I’m just outspoken about my preferences.
well done ... wasn't paying quite enough attention: did you include or leave out the still unsigned Jarrad Page?
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
I have Page starting next to Berry.
I know there is concern that he may not be signed, but for the purposes of this write-up, I feel as though he will be there.
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
The other day, I was reminded by AP that McGraw had started over Page last year B4 Page was injured.
I remember both reports from last season, but not necessarily the order in which events transpired. I’m pretty sure I learned about the injury after McGraw was starting, and, right or wrong, concluded that McGraw was starting because Page was injured. It wasn’t until a week or two ago that somebody tolt me, here, that Page was hurt afterward.
Things don’t currently look good for Page being a Chief this year.
I like it
Thanks. When will the final come out on your blog?
Also, I think the 9ers will win NFC West this year, good luck. Chiefs likely to be 2nd in AFC West, I hope.
New body. Same soul.
I am not sure.
The final will include all 32 teams, edited by Ninjames, Fooch, and DrewK. I will be sure to stop by and post a link to it when it comes out. I really hope that we do win our division this year, it has been way to long. As for the AFC West, ideally it would always finish as follows:
1. Chiefs
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chargers
"Blackmail is such an ugly word. I prefer "extortion." The "X" makes it sound cool." - Bender Bending Rodriguez
Two guys at the bottom of coaching list, but a signficant part...
Head Strength and Conditioning: Mike Clark
Assistant Strength and Conditioning: Brent Salazar
Haley’s quietly made twice as many references to this part of the staff as Edwards, Vermeil and Cunningham, combined. Maybe I’m just listening more closely. But these two guys seem more important than others – like it’s not just a sinecure for somebody to walk around while a bunch of guys are lifting and cracking jokes. The only red flags on this front are the undetected injuries that have surfaced, lately, and the unresolved grievance with Zach Thomas. I’d like to see both these issues addressed post-haste.
I would go for Colin Brown
for the 53rd man.
"The other teams could make trouble for us if they win." ~Yogi Berra~
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