Chiefs Draft Theories

I have a few theories about the Chiefs draft.

First, it appears to have been decided for quite some time that Berry would be the pick if he was there at #5.

Early on we heard this:

Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff calls the safety-at-the-top-of-the-draft debate a conundrum. "It's been on my mind a lot lately," he said, "and I realize I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth here, but Berry's a really good player. It's been on my mind quite a bit recently. You want the good hitter with hip movement, able to turn and run, but then reality sets in. I was talking to [Kansas City GM] Scott Pioli about Berry, and I said, 'Scott, this guy's your pick.' And he said, 'You know how I feel about safeties that early.' And I understand.''

And Joel touched on whether this was a smokescreen here:

2010 NFL Draft: Chiefs GM Scott Pioli's Eric Berry Smokescreen

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/4/23/1439328/2010-nfl-draft-chiefs-gm-scott

It looks to me like that is precisely what happened.  Not a big plot, just no voluntary hand tipping when asked, and nothing to make teams ahead of the Chiefs further consider Berry.  Apparently, Berry has long been viewed as an exception at safety.

That brings me to my second theory.  I think it's possible Berry would have been the pick at one, had the Chiefs been there - or in other words, that Berry was number one on the Chiefs board.

The reason I say this is because of the high level of expectation of the draftee by this regime. It looks to me that 'character issues' that were considered legitimate took candidates entirely off the board in this draft from the Chiefs' perspective.  

With this short board, there's a decent chance that no one picked ahead of Berry would be 'right 53' material when it came down to it.  Additionally, safety would have been a relatively economic pick at #1.

These theories are hypothetical and ultimately immaterial, but this next theory is a bit more testable as we watch the team in the future:

I say the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at having just conducted the best draft in NFL history.

They have to get very lucky, granted.  But just about every player they drafted is a guy who *could* be super.  And I'm not saying that in the way that you can say that about every kid in the draft.  I'm saying,

Eric Berry - Pretty safe pick to get a probowl someday, outside shot at best safety of all time (5%!?)

Dexter McCluster - decent chance of a probowl someday.  If, when all is said and done, this guy has Sproles or Bush numbers, that's serious stuff - and there's gotta be a 10-20% chance of that right?  looks like he has a pretty good chance to have better receiving numbers than either of those guys.  and if john madden catches wind that this kid can block...

Javier Arenas - pretty good chance this guy returns a touchdown or two.  what are the chances he is a dante hall for 3 or 4 years?  if it's 10-20%, nice pick - and if he can play 3rd corner for some years, gravy.

Tony Moeaki - nobody says he'll be Gonzalez, but the scenario I'm envisioning (30%? better?) is KC has a top 10 offense for the next 5 years or more.  maybe not this year - but don't count it out either.  if Moeaki stays healthy, the skills are there (and talent around him) that could have him be one of the more productive TE's in the league for a while.  If so, it's a solid pick to say the least.

And that's not all of course.  Asamoah has a decent chance to be a great.  Lewis and Sheffield are fine prospects - late round choices, but supposedly a deep draft.  What if one or two of these proves productive or even key over the next 10 years as the Chiefs get a couple rings?  What if Berry is all he's cracked up to be along with that, and McCluster is a 1000 all purpose yards guy for a long time?

Couple all that luck with the Hunt/Pioli/Haley/Cassel/Crennel story, and it's an NFL Films special waiting to happen.  This draft easily has a greater than average chance to go down as the best in NFL history.  What else could a guy want from a draft?