Gosselin's 100: T. Jackson & D. Williams
I’ve always enjoyed Gosselin’s Top 100 list. I print it to have on hand as I watch the draft. It’s succinct and more on target than mock drafts.
I found it interesting that Gosselin has Dan Williams ranked as the 8th best prospect. I pointed out before the draft last year that he had Tyson Jackson valued as the 6th best prospect--a lot higher than most mock draft writers.
Bob Gretz calls Gosselin the "best pro football writer in America." That’s high praise. Here’s how his top 100 is unique (from the intro to last year’s): "The Top 100 is compiled based on conversations with NFL general managers, personnel directors, pro and college coaches and scouts. This is not a mock draft. Teams will skip around the board on draft day to make selections that fit their needs."
about 2 years ago
timmer
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Spotlight on #3 Eric Berry on above mentioned Gosselin list
“Spotlight on Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: Berry may be the surest bet for greatness at the top of this draft board. He started all four seasons in high school and all three in college. He left high school and college as an All-America. He’s leaving school early to turn pro, but benefited in 2009 by playing at Tennessee for Monte Kiffin, a veteran NFL coordinator. Safeties historically don’t go high in drafts, but Berry does not feel out of place with his lofty status on this board. “At the end of the day, I believe I’m supposed to be up there with those guys,” Berry said. “I believe I’m the most talented player in this draft.”
A fun post idea?
I don’t know the best way to set it up but here it is: If people could take the most likely picks (top 5) and create odds for what they think the likelihoods of each being the actual pick. I’ve found myself thinking along these lines. Of course, no one would “win” but it’d be interesting to see what everyone’s guts are telling them. Or, maybe it could be a poll but I can’t think of how to do it that way.
IF Williams is selected… I suspect a lot of complaining around here. :)
Some things that stood out to me
He has a 38 spot difference between Williams at 8 and Cody at 46. That’s a huge gap.
After reading several scouting reports saying Linval Joseph may be best suited for a DE spot in the 3-4 he goes out of his way to label Joseph as a NT (for example, Dan Williams is just labeled as a DT). Joseph is ranked 56, 35 spots higher then the next true NT on the list, T. Troup at 91. Cam Thomas didn’t make the top 100.
TE Tony Moeaki (who currently has a front page story about him) is ranked 48 above some big time names. That is WAY higher then anything I have seen on this guy (who I love by the way). I was feeling confident that he would be on the board in the 5th because of his injury history, but if this is based on his conversations with GMs he may go higher.
Official Member of the "Draft Eric Berry" Fanclub
and the "Team O'Callaghan at RT" club
Moeaki is perhaps a bit like Cottam
In 2008 he had Cottam at 62 (despite HIS injury histroy), which numerically would put him in the top 2 rounds—although things don’t work out that way (which Gosselin says). It just goes to show that NFL evaluators have certain things that they’re looking for in an “NFL guy”. There’s so much conversation about what is needed at the QB position to be a successful QB in the NFL—performance in college isn’t necessarily a great barometer (although super-important). Evaluators are looking for specific things at all positions. They’re playing the odds in some ways. We all know this but I think this list is a good reminder.
Some people are misinterpreting what a top 100 is
I found it interesting that Gosselin has Dan Williams ranked as the 8th best prospect. I pointed out before the draft last year that he had Tyson Jackson valued as the 6th best prospect—a lot higher than most mock draft writers.
He doesn’t rank these guys in terms of how good he thinks they are as prospects. That’s not even the purpose of a top 100 for almost anyone. A top 100 is for projecting who the top 100 players drafted will be.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 8:51 AM CDT reply actions
Did you read what he wrote before the list?
“The Top 100 is compiled based on conversations with NFL general managers, personnel directors, pro and college coaches and scouts. This is not a mock draft. Teams will skip around the board on draft day to make selections that fit their needs.”
Sounds like a list of the 100 best prospects to me.
Official Member of the "Draft Eric Berry" Fanclub
and the "Team O'Callaghan at RT" club
I agree
I’ve emailed with Gosselin about how he had Jackson rated as the 6th best prospect last year. He didn’t correct me (as if I had missed the point). If he were just listing the top 100 to be drafted he wouldn’t need to rank the list—which is what is interesting about it.
Sounds like a list of the 100 he expects to be drafted most highly
Which would be consistent with what I’m saying. If he were ranking the 100 he thinks are best, he wouldn’t bother having the conversations with GMs, scouts, etc. He’d just rank them based on his own opinions. But he consults those people because he uses them as sources to figure out the top 100 to be drafted.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree in part...
I don’t think he’s just giving his own opinion—as much a Kiper big board for example. I think he uses conversations with GMs, scouts, etc and his own personal football knowledge to make a “likely draft board” of sorts. I kind of think of it as his educated guess to what an average of what the team draft boards would like like… perhaps influenced a bit by what he thinks it should look like.
AHH! Ya just beat me there timmer! ( ;
Founding member of the Dez Bryant in a Chiefs Uniform Fan Club.
Draft him for the children people!
BigRedChief - the sacred skull of the Bryant Branch of the congregation. - upamtn.
He gathered data from GM etc. to complile a list of the 100 best prospects in this draft reguardless of
team needs or draft positions. It’s not his opinion, it the leauge’s opinion. I think it gives us a pulse on how the NFL evaluates talent overall and not by need. It’s basically the same thing as Mel Kiper’s big board but from NFL evaluaters. That’s the way I read it anyway.
Founding member of the Dez Bryant in a Chiefs Uniform Fan Club.
Draft him for the children people!
BigRedChief - the sacred skull of the Bryant Branch of the congregation. - upamtn.
Exactly
This is about who he thinks are likely to be the top 100 picks. That’s a different concept than ranking the guys he sees as the 100 best prospects. Kiper’s Big Board is a little different in that respect.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
No it isn't BOH, it's a compilation of the opinions of the NFL's talent evaluaters as to who are the Top 100...
….best prospects in the draft, reguardless of position or team needs
Example:
Rick – “Mr. Pioli, who would you say is the best player in the draft?”
Pioli – “SUH from Nebraska is the best prospect in this draft.”
Rick – “And who is the second best player in the draft?”
Pioli – “Gerald McCoy….”
And so on until he has ask a boat load of evaluaters….
This list has nothing to do with who they think will go 1,2,3… just ranking the best players in the draft.
That’s why he has Golden Tate at 41 when he will probably go earlier and Koa Misi ranked higher than Terrance Cody.
Founding member of the Dez Bryant in a Chiefs Uniform Fan Club.
Draft him for the children people!
BigRedChief - the sacred skull of the Bryant Branch of the congregation. - upamtn.
I think your example explains the concept of the list
but he probably doesn’t have that level of conversation with GMs. I think his list is probably a lot of what he is sensing from different organizations as much as people ranking players for him.
Yeah you're probably right...
And everyone knows Pioli doesn’t allow anyone to talk directly to his face… (=
Founding member of the Dez Bryant in a Chiefs Uniform Fan Club.
Draft him for the children people!
BigRedChief - the sacred skull of the Bryant Branch of the congregation. - upamtn.
The players who are rated as best by the evaluators are the most likely to go in the top 100
And that does not reflect Gosselin’s opinions on the 100 best prospects, at least not significantly. I rest my case.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
You rest your case? Well then you just lost your case.
While I agree that the Top 100 best players should go in the Top 100, that’s just common sense but not reality. You are saying, at least the way I see it:
He doesn’t rank these guys in terms of how good he thinks they are as prospects….. A top 100 is for projecting who the top 100 players drafted will be.
That is exactly what he is doing. He is ranking from 1-100 what players are the cream of the crop not where they will be selected, just like Mel’s Big Board. It is purely to grade the talent in the draft from 1-100, it just so happens that most will be taken in the Top 100 but definately not in this order, this isn’t a mock. I don’t know, maybe I’m missing something from what you are trying to get across.
Stubborn Texan! ( ;
Founding member of the Dez Bryant in a Chiefs Uniform Fan Club.
Draft him for the children people!
BigRedChief - the sacred skull of the Bryant Branch of the congregation. - upamtn.
by BigRedChief on Apr 21, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think you're catching the context of top 100 lists
They’re done in order to predict the first 100 picks. What’s so hard about this?
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
the difference
is that a list like this is an AVERAGED LEAGUE OPINION listing of the top players. The order of draft will be altered by the singular needs and singular opinions of teams as well as what remains available to them.
New body. Same soul.
it is similar to the difference you would see
between a consensus board made by all of our collective AP opinions and each of our individual boards
I think you know that’d be a ton of different boards.
New body. Same soul.
one more thing
Did you see where Carlos Dunlap was barely making the top 100 thats a huge discrepancy. Just shows how different the info floating around is.
That's one of the things I like about his list.
It’s not just the same old thing we’ve been fed for the last several months. I wish he’d write the article a tad earlier every year—I think it’d be interesting to have for conversations if nothing else.
Look it's the Kate plus eight minus Jon guy (and mostly minus Kate too)... his name is Jon Gosselin but you can call him Douche.
Founding member of the Dez Bryant in a Chiefs Uniform Fan Club.
Draft him for the children people!
BigRedChief - the sacred skull of the Bryant Branch of the congregation. - upamtn.
by BigRedChief on Apr 21, 2010 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
"Yo let's go to Ed Hardy and get me a shirt with like a tiger raping a dragon on a skateboard"
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Apr 21, 2010 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
I've been laughing at how quickly the Ed Hardy trend came and went at the clubs here in MD/DC/VA
Those shirts were ridiculous. Spend three figurues on a t-shirt, it had damn well better be Armani or Versace.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
all made in the far east, all shrink
a 3 figure t-shirt should be a social test for filling in the Grand Canyon.
the moral of the story is, when a tattoo artist starts his/her own clothing line, stay away, because the morons will spend then peacock, then get their own reality show, and somehow the universal IQ of the country will drop a few percentage points.
It's a vicious cycle, because...
…the universal IQ then leads to an even worse trend. Rinse, repeat.
As a general rule, I avoid wearing anything that reflects brand. There are morons who’ll spend ALMOST three figures on a shirt just because of the Abercrombie logo, too.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 21, 2010 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
So how do these players usually turn out?
He may have the draft order more or less down, but do these players actually perform to their listed level?
Check out my blog on software development:
http://www.turnleafdesign.com/
by Scaryclouds on Apr 21, 2010 9:32 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Of course not :)
History shows how difficult it is to determine who will be a success. I think NFL evaluators are making the best educated guesses they can (“playing percentages”) based on what they think it takes to succeed in the NFL. Some will take gambles on guys but obviously there are lot of commonalities in how teams value guys.
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