As some of you know, last night's front page post on Cody having a personal workout with Crennel got me thinking about a trade possibility. Let's just settle this thought now: Pioli isn't going to draft Cody at 5 (sorry Steve :). There's too much talent that will be available at #5 to take such a high risk on a guy that has too many question marks. His work ethic and weight issues are too intimidating to warrant that pick. He didn't have the best combine work out. His bench press reps (22) were not that impressive for a position that requires massive strength to play. For comparison, Cam Thomas put up 31 reps. Dan Williams put up 27. And, by the way, it would really suck to have a #5 overall player busted for diuretics this year... I'm just saying. He dropped a lot of weight fast.
One thing is obvious about Cody though. The guy can play football. That's really the only reason that draft boards have him ranging from the mid 1st to late 2nd rounds. There's just something about him. He dominated at the NT position for the NCAAF National Champions, Alabama. The guy has talent, it just needs to be reigned in and coached up. We need a NT. Our 3-4 defense is dependent on it. That's why after the jump, I'll explore what I think is the most likely scenario to us drafting Mount Cody.
Ok, first off we have to look at when Cody will be available. In my opinion, and this I'm open to debate on this, I think his most likely landing spot will be with the Chargers at #28. I just don't see another team that is hurting for NT help enough to take him before the 2nd round (aside from the Chiefs). We're going to have to get him before San Diego. That means we either trade back, or move up from our 2a pick. While a trade back for Cody is the most desirable, let's just assume that we either can't trade back from #5 or we take someone else that is rated higher than Cody (McClain maybe?). That leave us with one option to get him. Trade back from our 2a pick back into the first.
In order for us to do this it will have to be the perfect storm. We'll have to pass on Dan Williams and Cody will have to fall to Dallas at #27. We're going to have to go from the 36th pick to the 27th, which is a 9 pick difference. In my opinion, that's the perfect range to move. The team giving up the pick won't slide back too far, and while what we give up might be kind of high, I think it will be manageable. Ok. So what is the cost going to be? Below is a Draft Trade Chart (Thanks to NW for the link):
Ok. So using the Chart we can see that we're wanting to go from the 36th to the 27th pick. That's a difference in value of 140. Using the chart, we can see that the 90th pick is the value that we'd need. Unfortunately , we fall a ways off of that, with the 68th and 102nd pick. The 68th is worth 250 anf the 102nd is worth 92. Well crap. I don't like the idea of giving up the the 68th (we'd have to acquire a pick from the Cowboys to make up for the 110 difference... I'm too lazy for that)... so it looks like the only way to make it work is giving up the 102nd and 136th pick. That brings the total to 130, ten points short... meh, close enough.
So to trade down to get Cody, we'd have to give up something like our 4th and 5a pick. This is where the "Pioli factor" comes in. Does he think Cody is the NT that we need to make our 3-4 work? Is he ok with stop gapping with Shaun Smith and developing either a Cam Thomas or a Torrel Troup? Honestly, I don't know guys. This is just food for thought. I think the price might be a little high, but we absolutely need a NT. I don't know what Pioli thinks of Cody, but I know he likes his NTs big. Wilfork was about 350lbs coming out of college.
At this point a bunch of you are saying "But RNGB, Pioli won't trade away picks! What are you retarded?". My answer to you guys is to hold your horses. Once again NW saves me valuable time at work by supplying me with another link for this research. Thanks NW and I'm gonna steal your comment from the thread I've been referring to:
From the looks of it, the Patriots have traded up only once in the past 6 offseasons.
-That one was a second round pick (52nd overall – WR Greg Jennings) and a third round pick (75th overall – C Jason Spitz) to the Green Bay Packers in exchange for a second round pick in the 2006 draft (36th overall – WR Chad Jackson)
However, the Patriots were “trade-up happy” back in 2003 collecting 5 total trade-ups.
-The Patriots traded a third (81st overall) and fifth (140th overall) to the Washington Redskins in exchange for a third (75th overall) and a fourth rounder in 2004.
-The Patriots traded a first (14th overall) and a sixth (193rd overall) to Chicago for their first round pick (13th overall – DT Ty Warren).
-The Patriots traded a second (41st overall) and a third (75th overall) to the Houston Texans for a second rounder (36th overall – DB Eugene Wilson) and a fourth (117th overall – DL Dan Klecko).
-The Patriots traded a second (50th overall) and a fourth(120th overall) to the Carolina Panthers for a second (45th overall – WR Bethel Johnson).
-The Patriots traded a fourth (128th overall) and a fifth (157th overall) to the Denver Broncos for a fourth (120th overall – CB Asante Samuel).
Tack on two more in 2002.
-The Patriots acquired the Washington Redskins first (21st overall – Daniel Graham) for their 2002 first (32nd overall), third (96th overall) and seventh round (234th overall).
-The Patriots acquired the Denver Broncos fourth (117th overall – Rohan Davey) for a fourth (131st overall) and fifth round (144th overall)
And one key trade up in 2001
-The Patriots acquire Detroit’s second (48th overall – T Matt Light) for a second (50 overall, from Pittsburgh) and sixth (173 overall, from San Francisco)
So. Pioli is obviously willing to trade away picks to move up, especially in the early years of a rebuild. Now I notice that he also likes to work out swapping multiple picks to make the trade value match up. Again, I'm not going to do that. Feel free to leave comments below if you want to hash that out.
So, fellow APers. Are we getting Cody? Is this the route that we might take? I can see something like this happening, especially if Pioli works his magic and swaps picks around to make it an even trade. I know there are multiple Cody haters out there, who are ready to scream "Fatty fatty two-by-four, can't fit through the kitchen door!", but stop and think about it guys. NTs aren't supposed to be the most athletic guys on the field. They're supposed to clog the door way and draw double teams. Cody did that extremely well in college. The fatty can play ball.
Thanks again to NW. You saved my employer valuable man hours ;-)