Hello Everyone. My name is Mike and this is my 1st post. Hope you like it...
I just got done reading my 197th article about the upcoming 2010 draft and thought I'd share my thoughts. Everywhere you look on the "internets" are articles, posts, blogs and videos galore about what each team is thinking leading up to this year's litter. (I like to call the NFL draft a "litter" since each year there's a new batch of puppies on the market that everyone is clamoring to get. They're all sooo cute when they're little. Of course next year we'll forget about them after they've pooped all over the bench and chewed holes in their cleats. But that's ok. There's always another set of fresh new puppies that come out every year.)
But I digress.
The real point of this post is to decipher a team's draft strategy. Bewsaf pointed to 3 different strategies (not counting his wife's mood swing strategy). To recap, they were;
1. Draft the best available player.
2. Draft for need.
3. Draft for need when the player you like is a reach and draft the best available player when the player you like is the best available player.
Other posters have different strategies as well. I've seen things like;
4. Draft the biggest impact/game changing player
5. Draft only the Big Uglies
6. Get a QB - Always get a QB!
7. You can never have enough punters (I think that was Herm's strategy)
I dunno about all those different strategies. I think basically, when it really comes down to it, it's a lottery. None of these GM's, coaches, pundits or other so-called experts really know what works. Most teams would probably be better off having Bewsaf's wife pick for them. At least the Lions should consider bringing her on board.
But I'm throwing out all of these strategies for one that works for me - the Fantasy Football Draft Method (FFDM). I've been playing fantasy football for 15 years and have won the big trophy several times so I do have a proven track record here. It made me wonder whether applying the same strategy to a real draft would work. I mean, if you really look at it, don't you think the GM's feel like they're playing fantasy? They even dream at night about what their perfect "fantasy draft" would look like.
In fantasy, you get about 10-13 rounds to pick your players. Throw out the Kickers and special teams and the double picks and you're really looking at about 7 core team players. You could throw out the TE's too, IMO because who really needs them anymore? Most are glorified blockers now and their days are numbered like FB's. So for purposes of this strategy and since they're basically linemen, we'll replace TE's with linemen (follow me here...). Other than linemen, defense gets thrown into 1 position, just like fantasy. So a safety is no different than CB or LB. It's just defense man! These guys don't bring home the points!
Anyways, each fantasy owner/GM has a strategy in mind based on their order in the draft. Now I realize the NFL is a keeper league and you need to consider what you currently have. You can't just start over fresh every year. But man, wouldn't that be GREAT!
Break the number of teams drafting into 3 tiers. In fantasy, if you're in the top tier, you draft either the top 2 QB's, otherwise you have to go RB. The 1st round is your franchise. If you miss here, you'll have no shot at winning the crown. If you don't need a franchise QB or RB, you go with the foundation pick here - linemen. The big uglies. They're not sexy but this is TACKLE football and not flag so they're pretty important.
If you're in the 2nd or 3rd tier of teams picking, you're probably going linemen, defense or top 2 WR. Since you're further down in the draft order, you have a better than average team. This means you probably have your QB and RB set. Chances are you're drafting heavy defense since "defense wins championships" (or some crap like that). You can sniff a top 2 WR if you like but just like fantasy, this position is the biggest question mark.
The 2nd round goes much like the 1st, picking up the opposite of what you got in the 1st. This is probably the best round to go BPA. If your team has multiple needs, this round is easy to pick. There are still studs available and your pick should land another starter.
The 3rd round is the "Needs" pick. If you have a position that's weak, go ahead and reach here to fill that need.
The 4th round is the WR shotgun round. Since WR's are a crapshoot, just use every pick you have in this round on them and see which one sticks. If you don't have multiple picks in this round, see below.
The 5th round is the QB round. I don't care if you have 5 on the roster, just get one and scratch the number on his jersey to see if you've won the next Tom Brady lottery. It's worth the $1 scratchoff ticket. In fantasy, I always get another stud QB for trade bait here.
After that, who cares? You're probably just getting guys for camp anyways. If you can't trade up into the WR round, you probably would be better off trying to package your remaining picks to trade Oakland for their 2nd rounder next year and a Jamarcus Russell paperweight instead.