What a Difference a Year Makes

Projections are (for the most part) BS. If you want a player, and he more than likely won’t be around at your next pick, I don’t consider it a “reach”. If we decide Player X, who is projected between 20-25, is the guy that we absolutely want, and we can’t trade down, pick him.

I don’t like this “not worth the #5 pick” stuff that the media puts out there. So few players are worth that pick. Why pick a guy that everyone says “should” go in that position when you can pick the guy you truly want?

Nice post, Bewsaf!

So, do you go with value? Or do you go with need?

the short answer, of course, is … “yes”

fine line to tread there, my friend … I think your comment about proactive as opposed to reactionary says it best: have a plan and stick with it

loved the posts from a year ago about how good Goff was going to be … shows how much, or little, we really know (myself included)

The supposed deficiency of our offensive line is blown way out of preportion. In my mind, the addition of Mike Goff to RG will do wonders for us. He’s not a superstar player, but he’s a rock solid anchor for that position. He will drastically improve Rudy Niswangers play at Center.

by ChiefDJ on Apr 27, 2009 4:47 PM MDT

Now that Niswanger has a full year under his belt AND Goff and Waters surrounding him, I have a feeling he’s gonna do just fine.

by Vince D on Apr 27, 2009 7:06 PM MDT

The Redskins are filled with “best available players” (granted a lot of them were free agents) that have no cohesion. Where is the Mike Vrabel on the Redskins? Where is the Larry Foote? Where are the Tyson Jacksons? The players that hold it all together.

I mean if you have Peyton Manning why draft a QB. Pioli has shown he will draft for what he believes are the players he thinks conform to his ideal of a solid team. We as fans might not agree with him, but then he’s the one who is getting paid to do the job and with every pick puts his job on the line. At least he doesn’t pick a WR every year with his #1 pick like Matt McMillen, what a joke he was. I am a little worried hje might be drafting a defensive lineman every year with the #1 pick but what do I know. In 3 yrs time we will know for sure because at the end of those 3 yrs we will see the pattern of Pioli’s picks.

And my answer is both.

I think we’re too quick to use the 2009 draft as a standard for how Pioli will pick players.

He was kind of forced into a corner because he didn’t have a 2nd round pick. Might that have caused him to change his strategy and reach value position over BPA? I think so.

I think we’ll get a better idea of what Pioli’s draft philosophy is after this draft. He has a little more room to move around this time.

Here’s the thing—The media has gotten ahold of the draft and changed the perception of it in the minds of fans. Because of the way they describe it, many fans now believe that the #1 pick should make the most money in his contract and so forth down the line. In reality, the poster who said that so few players are worth that money is right. In addition, it is often times 2-3 years before it can be determined exactly what that player truly was worth on draft day. This is why the contracts are written with incentives and portions that don’t pay out until certain benchmarks have been met. It would be interesting to see just exactly what percentage of their rookie contracts the top 10 draft picks each year actually realize. It really doesn’t matter though because the same fans that clamour for the sexy picks are the ones that hold the pick over the GMs head if the pick doesn’t work out. As a GM it is a tough place to be. The only way to win is to pick the sexy players that deliver. The number of those players seems to shrink every year.

Rec’d as always, always good reads

I see only one way to draft. Make a list of all draft prospects. Give them a rating, say 1-100. This rating could be reached in a number of ways, but would consider potential, skill, and knowledge of the player – not how much the team needs that position. Just a raw rating for each potential prospect.

Then do the same thing with the current members of the roster. Rate them 1-100.

Then when a draft pick comes up, find the guy available who represents the biggest improvement to your team.

In other words:

your QB is a 67 and the best available QB prospect is a 90 (maybe peyton manning was a 90). That prospect would represent an improvement of 23.

your RB is a 50 and the best available RB prospect is a 75. That prospect represents an improvement of 25. Pick that player.

Some might say that doesn’t take into account intangibles – but it can, if you include them however you want in the rating formula when evaluating current players and prospects.