Berry vs. Bulaga: The Walterfootball Math Edition


WARNING:  This entire post should be written in the sarcasm font.  However, I felt that it might be hard to look at, but be advised sarcasm is afoot.

So in the last few days Walterfootball has turned my whole world upside down.  I the founder of the Draft Eric Berry Fanclub had the very foundation of my universe rocked by this article by Walterfootball that spells out why safeties aren't worth an early first round pick.  It's been discussed on AP a couple times now.  For those that haven't read it, I'll summarize.  Safeties aren't worth picking because teams that drafted safeties in the first 15 picks of the first round were only 242-284 (a 46% winning percentage) with those safeties on their roster.  In other words, they didn't make their teams winners.  So obviously we should disband the fanclub and go with Brian Bulaga who Walterfootball has in their latest mock draft.  However, before we do so let's use a little of their own math and logic.

AP, I present you ERIC BERRY










Okay, so here goes.  I have used their logic of seeing how a draft pick's success is measured by the winning percentage of that team while that player is on their roster.  Now they used the top 15 picks in their research.  However, we aren't picking 15th we're picking 5th.  So for better accuracy (screw sample size, that's not important, is it?) let's narrow our scope to the top 5 picks dating back to 1991.  Let's look at the team winning percentage of all the safeties and offensive tackles taken in the top 5 picks.  I'm sure their wonderful evaluation tool will show us how building with a franchise tackle will yield far greater results then the worthless safety position.

Now I know what you're thinking, "Porkchop, the winning percentage of teams drafting in the top 5 picks isn't going to be very good.  They're bad teams and are picking top 5 for a reason."  I understand, I was there myself.  Don't confuse yourself with "logic" and "reason".  This is just how it is.  Accept it and move on.

Okay let's look at the safeties.  We have 1991 2nd overall pick Eric Turner who went to the Cleveland Browns and Sean Taylor who went 5th overall to the Redskins.  That's all of them, but as I said before sample size really isn't important to get an accurate result.

Cleveland's record in seasons with Turner:  36-44

Washington's record in seasons with Taylor:  30-34

Total record of teams who picked safeties top 5:  66-78 for a 45.83% winning percentage (those losers!)

Now let's look at those teams that were smart and took the offensive tackle in the top 5.  Here's the list Orlando Pace 1st overall to the Rams in 1997, Chris Samuels 3rd overall to the Redskins in 2000 (how could one team be smart enough to take a tackle one year and a safety the other?  That's weird), Mike Williams 4th overall to the Bills in 2002, Robert Gallery 2nd overall to the Raiders in 2004, D'Brickashaw Ferguson 4th overall to the Jets in 2006, Joe Thomas 3rd overall to the Browns in 2007, Levi Brown 5th overall to the Cardinals in 2007, Jake Long 1st overall to the Dolphins in 2008, and Jason Smith 2nd overall to the Rams in 2009.  So here are the records of those teams with their franchise saving tackle on the roster.

Rams with Pace:  92-100

Skins with Samuels:  70-90

Bills with Williams:  28-36

Raiders with Gallery:  25-71 (Only because he turned out to be a G disguised as a T, sneaky bastard.)

Jets with Ferguson:  32-32

Browns with Thomas:  19-29

Cards with Brown:  27-21

Fins with Long:  18-14

Rams with Smith:  1-15

Total record of teams with their top 5 tackles on the roster:  312-408 for a 43.33% winning percentage.

Wait, that can't be right, can it?  I mean I'm no math guru, but isn't 45.83% higher then 43.33%?  How could teams that were stupid enough to draft a safety with a top 5 pick have a higher winning percentage then the teams that were blessed with the wisdom to do the right thing and take a tackle?  How could Walterfootball create this perfect, flawless system to figure out if a position is worth the pick and then in their mock draft select a position that is worse using their own system.


This can't be right!  I mean sure the Brown's PPG allowed went from last in the league at 28.9 the year before he was drafted up to 14th at 18.6 the year after he was drafted, but Turner didn't have anything to do with that.  The Browns wasted that pick.  Yes, he had 9 INTs in 1994, made the Pro Bowl and the team went to the playoffs on the back of its defense (and its league leading 12.8 PPG allowed), but drafting him was a mistake damn it.

Yes, the Redskins YPG allowed went from 25th at 338.2 the year before Taylor was drafted up to 3rd at 267.6 the year after he was drafted.  Yes their PPG allowed jumped from 24th at 23.2 up to 5th at 16.6, but again that's just a lucky coincidence.  Taylor didn't really matter, he wasn't important.

So in conlusion, Walterfootball's method is still correct in saying safeties aren't worth top picks.  After all, remember what Peter King told us:  Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu aren't that valuable to their teams because Bob Sanders is injury prone (don't think about it, just smile and accept it).  Now Walterfootball has obviously overlooked some factor that has caused the offensive tackle results to come out too low.  Don't worry, I'm sure they'll get their voodoo math straightened out before the draft and be able to prove to us that Brian Bulaga is the way to go.



This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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