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Offensive Line Statistical Abstract

 

Here are two tables I have made comparing our 2009 offensive line vs our 2010 offensive line. Some things to note before I go on here. I'm assuming Lijla will play RG and Weigman will be starting C in 2010. For 2009, RG is a composite statistic that includes both Goff and Smith. The stats are sums of both, since they both did not play at the same time. The rating is an average between the two. Speaking of ratings, I guess I should explain how I got them. The ratings are from Pro Football Focus, who review every play for every player for the season and give each player a subjective rating based mostly on objective statistical data. A Score of 0 means that player is the mean performer at his position.

2009






Position LT LG C RG RT Total Avg
Name Albert Waters Niswanger Goff/Smith O'cal

Rating -17 -3.6 -13.3 -4.35 -20.2 -58.45 -11.69
Hurry 16 7 14 21 24 82 16.4
Hit 9 1 1 3 6 20 4
Sack 7 0 1 5 8 21 4.2
HHS Total 32 8 16 29 38 123 24.6
























2010






Position LT LG C RG RT Total Avg
Name Albert Waters Weigman Liljla O'cal

Rating -17 -3.6 -5.5 7.1 -20.2 -39.2 -7.84
Hurry 16 7 14 15 24 76 15.2
Hit 9 1 1 8 6 25 5
Sack 7 0 1 1 8 17 3.4
HHS Total 32 8 16 24 38 118 23.6







 

 

This Chart compares the 2009 and 2010 line rosters based on 2009 stats. If a graph is a bit too fuzzy, click on it and it will expand

Hhschart_medium

It would appear here that our recent additions are an improvement, but only marginally. The real problem here is our tackles. We all like Branden Albert but he hasn't really made it as a LT yet, even with an all star G next to him.This will be a make or break year for him. On the other side, I was very surprised with how bad O'Callaghan's numbers are. His numbers suggest that he's getting beat at the line(high hurry count) but generally controls his defeat so as to prevent the DE from getting to the QB(low hits). He gets beaten too much though, and has thus allowed the most sacks. Ike Ndukwe had good numbers with MIA at RT, so hopefully he's allowed to challenge for the job.

Loneoverall_medium

Agian, Lilja and Weigman seem numerically to be marginal improvements. I will, however, note that Lilja is a massive improvement over Goff. This composite number I'm using somewhat masks how devastatingly bad he did, and how solid Wade Smith did as a fill in. Smith only allowed one sack in 7 games, whereas Goff gave up 4 in 8 games. Lijla is at very least stability at RG(presuming we start him there) and is probably a good deal better. He only allowed one sack in 16 games. Weigman's number are almost identical to Niswanger's, which I wouldn not  have expected. Rudy is still pretty young whereas Weigman is only getting older. We'll see if he can hold off the ghost of Mike Goff.

This chart compares '09 and '10 lines in the pass and the run, using PFF grades

Runvpass_medium


Here's where we see where our upgrades are realized: the run game. Niswanger was getting dumped in Charles' lap, while Weigman held his own and some. Lilja is a tick above average as a run blocker and is quite an improvement there. Again, the Tackles are stinking it up. Charles-Jones et. all will have a much friendlier environment up the gut.

 

Conclusions:

Lilja is likely to have been a very good grab.

Weigman will probably have to fight for the starting spot and may rotate liberally even if he wins. Coming in on run 3rd and short could be an option, though Center swapping is generally avoided so as to maintain C to QB snap cohesion.

We may well draft a C. If so Weigman could fail to make the team

This is Albert's year to show he can be an NFL LT. If not, then we're in the T market next draft.

The line upgrades combined with out backfield upgrades point to a run heavy team and less pressure on the QB

We've gone from a bad offensive line, to an offensive line a tick below average, with the possibility of being a tick above average if the tackles step up and the zone blocking scheme really gels.

It will be interesting to see the progression of the ZBS given that Wiegman and Lilja come from Zone teams.

Hopefully someone reads this as I spent entirely too much time on it. :\

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

Comment 23 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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Lots of great info here

With a blogger’s best friend — charts!

This is about what I suspect regarding Wiegmann (slight upgrade) and Lilja (moderate upgrade).

What the charts can’t quantify is Wiegmann’s experience and ability to read defenses and issue o-line assignments — from my understanding, he is very good that.

Thanks for taking the time to put all of this into charts and break it down. Much appreciated.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 28, 2010 8:19 PM CDT reply actions  

always the prob. with Stats

can’t measure intangibles. Rudy has always been said to be a very smart guy though. I would not see line calls as a weakness of his, but then again I really never paid attention for that.

by SillyHatDay on Mar 28, 2010 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

But the charts do...

From what I understand about how the Football Focus guys do (or at least what they told me in the emails I have exchanged) is that the players are graded from play to play and offensive linemen are graded on things on getting a block down and then moving to the second level to get a second block. Well a linemans ability to do so is a combination of skill and knowledge. Its very possible that what it boils down to is Wiegman is a crappy blocker, but he makes up for it by knowing his job.

I really like what Football Focus does, but I dont like is some of their weightings, I had a very lengthy email exchange with them about how it was ridiculous how over 3/4 of the QB’s were above average, and we also had a discussion whether or not Aaron Rodgers was truly the best QB. So basically long story short, I may not agree with some of their conclusions, I am at least happy with their unbiased opinion and that regardless how they weight their analysis all players are judged equally.

Sometimes the best way to convince someone he is wrong is to let him have his way. --- Red O'Donnell

by averagegatsby on Mar 28, 2010 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't use it much but I do find it interesting

We cited the “total number of plays” stat in one of our stories and got a note from the Chiefs that the numbers were way off. Last time we used them.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 28, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

The exact numbers may not be accurate

But I’d wager the way players are evaluated remains consistent, which makes it just as much of a go-to reference as any of our own homegrown statistical analysis.

The Chiefs will see a return to respectability in 2010, emerging as the front runner in the AFC West! ....And I'll quantify that however I choose. Ahem.

by ArrowSpread on Mar 28, 2010 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right

I like it for generalities but not getting too specific.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 28, 2010 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interesting...

I think some of their work is done by volunteers, of course then again if they are using spread sheets its possible their was just a data entry error.

I know I just did an assignment done with excell and I had one number wrong in an equation and long story short I basically got a zero because everything wound up being wrong.

Sometimes the best way to convince someone he is wrong is to let him have his way. --- Red O'Donnell

by averagegatsby on Mar 28, 2010 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I read it SHD.

I hope last years lineman step up there game and don’t allow the new FA’s to take their starting jobs. I like the analysis provided by football outsiders. Maybe just because I understand there statistical methods a little better. Good job on the post.

Yeah...but we beat the donkeys like a rented mule.

by Idahochief on Mar 28, 2010 8:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Is there anyway you can look at just the second half of the season? Everyone talks about how much better our line was then, so I would really like to see the stats from then (especially the tackles).

by chiefdoc on Mar 28, 2010 9:15 PM CDT reply actions  

The line upgrades combined with out backfield upgrades point to a run heavy team and less pressure on the QB

I wouldn’t think we’d dial up any more run plays than we did last season. Our backfield upgrades tell me that we’re just looking for a more reliable run game with a more solid back, rather than hoping JC can squirt through a hole. He’s not going to be moving the pile, but he will get plenty of opportunies to break the big one and should still provide good production between the 20s even if TJ is eating into his carries a touch.

And remember, Cassel was one of the better QBs in the league running the play-action. I don’t see Weis getting away from that. We’ll keep it balanced as Haley did last season with a heavy dose of play fakes run behind a reliable run game that doesn’t produce negative plays, shortening the distance per down. That’ll certainly take a lot of pressure off Cassel.

The Chiefs will see a return to respectability in 2010, emerging as the front runner in the AFC West! ....And I'll quantify that however I choose. Ahem.

by ArrowSpread on Mar 28, 2010 9:16 PM CDT reply actions  

i actually don't think

the coaching staff wants to be run heavy, but I do think we will gravitate in that direction as it is shaping up to be a strong suit.

by SillyHatDay on Mar 28, 2010 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

SHD ... nice job, good stats n charts n stuffs like that ... agree with analysis, a lil better

… which (IMNSHO) is why we should take Walton at 2B … Weigmann is a stopgap at Center, but he’s no spring chicken … obviously Defense will be a major deal in the draft, but I think it’s crucial we comtinue to find some young studs for the OLine as they do take time to develop

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 29, 2010 12:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Agreed Walton with pick 2b

Then a couple of guys later on for depth on the o-line. IMO defense is what we should try to fix this year with the draft.

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 29, 2010 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's not really fair to use Weigmann's rating from last year

He moved from zone blocking in 08 to power blocking in 09. we use zone blocking, so i would expect his performance would be closer to 08… pro bowl.

by Vince D on Mar 29, 2010 3:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Nice catch :)

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 29, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

It does point toward a need for better linemen.

Some of our less experienced starters must improve. A quality player or 2 from the draft would be a good 1st step, but our existing starters must get better.

Kansas City Chiefs - 2020 Team of the Decade

by skunk420 on Mar 29, 2010 8:21 AM CDT reply actions  

recd for the hard work.

Kansas City Chiefs - 2020 Team of the Decade

by skunk420 on Mar 29, 2010 8:21 AM CDT reply actions  

Seconded and recd also

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 29, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

as we've already went over

ad nauseum, the whole line was subjected to a few things that greatly skewed any stats:

1) good bye gailey
2) gailey’s poor protection schemes
3) learning new blocking system
4) learning haley’s playbook
5) having matt cassel (slow decision-making, cf. matt’s stats in new england.) which i’m sure someone bored enough could evaluate how much the NE’s line stats changed between 08 with cassel and 09 with brady.
6) having LJ as our featured running back. totally killed the offense.
7) dropped passes. almost same effect as #6

so unless one can equate for all these variables and incorporate them into the numbers, all data is useless. maybe for fun, but there’s no actual meaning.

now, if you’d like to look at that same set of data over the last half or quarter of the season…..when charles becomes the featured back, the o-line starts to learn the protection and playbook, and chambers is on the team, then IMO it would net a better analysis.

we already knew that the first half o-line of 2009 was crap. but those numbers can’t be a realistic starting point for 2010, nor for comparison to guys that were just brought in to compete.

"We're not losers, we just can't win!"

by chief Stevie_k on Mar 29, 2010 10:50 AM CDT reply actions  

yeah, guys brought in just to compete last year, unlike this year when they bring in ...

… Weigmann

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 29, 2010 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

thank you...

I couldn’t have taken the time to say it that well. None the less, I appreciate the work put into the post.

by 12t on Mar 29, 2010 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

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