Draft Board: Inside the Mind of Pioli (not a mock)
by SillyHatDay on Mar 18, 2010 11:00 PM CDT
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PrintNote: I wrote this two days ago but my girlfriend closed out the page. I just now found out that our fan posts are autosaved on our dashboad so I'm publising it now. I know someone wrote a similar post yesterday.
Herein I would like to undertake a tricky, tricky task. Rather than do a mock, I'd like to discuss who Pioli has in his head as the guys he wants on draft day. In other words, what does our draft board look like? My impression of Scott Pioli's draft day predisposition is that he chooses based on 1. Need 2. Want 3. Value on day one, and in that order. This decision making process is what landed us TJ. On day two, however, the system seems to invert itself and we are delivered players like Donald Washington. This is, of course, my own personal take on someone else's behavior based on limited observation. None the less, I'll project an order of likelihood that a given player will be taken by KC in rounds 1-3. I'm not enough of a college football/draft guru to get beyond that, so I'll leave that to the rest of you.
I am slightly liberal with my estimations on who is available to account for someone sliding down the board by happenstance, which always happens to someone, just ask Rey Malugala
Round 1
ILB Rolando McClain - bit of a reach, but not a huge one and he fills a position of need. He reminds me an awful lot of DJ, so I'm skeptical but if anyone can refine him, Romeo can. Unless we can trade down, I'm guessing Pioli sees this as the only pick.
DT Dan Williams - Big boy. He is probably better suited as a 3-4 NT in the NFL than Suh or Mccoy given his size. This would be an even bigger reach than TJ was last year, but if for some reason McClain is gone, I don't know where else Pioli goes here
CB Joe Haden - This rests on the staff's view Brandon Carr as a long term option. Haden could come in initially as a nickel and swap jobs with Carr if he can maintain more consistent coverage.
DE/OLB Sergio Kindle - Vrable needs an heir apparent. Kindle could be an impact in the pass rush but I have no faith dropping him into coverage. Again a big reach and I think Pioli would only make this choice in a last ditch scenario
WR Dez Bryant - The offense may be just one star wide out away from being a real competitor. Dez could be that guy but I don't think he's a "pioli guy"
S Eric Berry - I tend to believe the reporting that Pioli would never take a S so high. At some point though, Pioli's reach tolerance has to cap out and the BPA gets selected. I only put berry this far down because I think Pioli's reach tolerance is quite high, though the margins could easily be narrower than this.
LT Bryan Bulaga - I was sold on him as the pick before we started a FA run on linemen. Now I think an OT is not even in consideration for round 1.
Round 2a.
DT Terrance Cody - Even bigger boy. Cody is a monster that screams 3-4 NT. In fact, I think he just might be the biggest DT in the nation. Tossing this beast in to anchor our D line would be a great move in my view, and I think Pioli agrees. We don't ask 3-4 NTs to be great atheletes, just earth movers who can overwhelm two guys at once. This guy can do it.
ILB Brandon Spikes - Spikes is most likely the pick here if we take Dan Williams with out first. Spikes is a good ILB who I personally feel has not real reason to be ranked below McClain. McClain is a more impressible athelete but Spikes seems to play with his head more, a trait our staff has show to prefer.
WR Golden Tate - I personally would not go here due to Tate's size, but he's a good player with charachter that I can see Haley and Weis lobbying hard for. The slot would be his some if drafted by KC.
C Maurkice Pouncey - Awesome player but the combination of Weigman and quality centers deeper in the draft make this fairly unlikely
Round 2b.
ILB Brandon Spikes - His 40 time shot his stock down. If he starts slipping big time we'll take a shot at him eventually.
WR Arrelious Benn - Big n'fast.
OLB Jerry Hughes - projected as an OLB in a 3-4. Not a fan of DE converts but it donesn't seem to be a hang up for Pioli et. al.
G Mike Johnson - Versatile player who could provide nice interior line depth
S Chad Jones- Good valueCB
Donovan Warren - Good size
Round 3.
JD Walton - A good center who would have a while to develop behing Weigman. I think this is the AP consensus for this pick.
Dezmon Briscoe - Good technicals with a nice frame. I think he underperformed his talent level due to the offense he was a part of.
Torell Troup - If we miss Cody this is a lock.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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my favorites are
1. Berry or trade down
2a Pouncey
2b Benn
3 Spikes
4 Troup
"It doesn't matter what you do in Life only that you do it the best you can. "
I'd like to see Gilyard on there somewhere
And I think it’s safe to assume that at least one of his picks will leave everyone confused, whether it be a player at position not of urgent need or a player nobody has heard of.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if there's more than one
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by giftedchiefsfan on Mar 19, 2010 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions
if you could REALLY see inside Pioli's mind you'd have something ...
… probably a lawesuit or whatever
scratch Dez Bryant (not at all the Right 53 type, and WR is a luxury item to a team with no Defense)
put in Spoon and I’m pretty much with ya for round one
Walton likely 2B … unless we get Pouncey at 2A (he might be gone by then)
and Bulaga, get him out of your head … out, damn spot
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!
Arrelious Benn
I don’t see the guy falling to our 2nd 2nd rounder, let alone out of the 1st round.
Hi. My big board for our first rounder is:
1. Russell Okung, OT
2. Eric Berry, S
3. Rolondo McClain, ILB
4. Brian Bulaga, OT
5. Dan Williams, NT
Erm haven’t really heard the DJ-McClain comparison. Yes give you both talented, both won good chunk of awards, but not sure McClain can run around like DJ can also don’t think DJ can tackle like McClain. Could be wrong just my opinion don’t see much other than those. DJ seems to be more versatile although have to wonder if he will show up and use that talent to the fullest.
Pioli
I believe that the Chiefs brass inclusive to Pioli, Haley, Crennel and Weis, all want to build a better team from the inside out.
I feel that the Chiefs may go with an unsexy pick yet again, a lot like Tyson Jackson, but someone who can sure up the Line O’ Scrimmage.
I think Bryan Bulaga makes the the most sense for the Chiefs. Bulaga played at nearby Iowa and we all know the connection with Coach Ferentz. I think they take the lineman, unless Pioli can trade down and take McClain who addresses their LB need, and add another pick to take a tackle.
[img]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eTH2sm73rf3u/610x.jpg[/img]
on a side note...
I wish the Chiefs could somehow get Golden Tate :)
[img]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0eTH2sm73rf3u/610x.jpg[/img]
Nice post sillyhatday. Way to (not) put up a mock draft lol. J/k buddy.
I have to agree with you on the Dan Williams thing. Unless pioli has some no name in mind that he’s going to surprise everyone with after the draft and get some Undrafted kid out of some small school, who else is there?
I doubt the work ethic of Terrence has helped his cause, even tho he crash dieted to look for the combine. he should have been in shape ever since high school if he wanted to prove he deserves a crack in the 1st round.
We don’t have any choice. We have to get a NT somehow. Someway. Someone has to come here. I don’t care if we draft Sam Bradford with #5 and use him as trade bait for a pro bowl 34 center. We HAVE to get that done for sure. I don’t know where else he goes either if a few of the top prospects are gone at #5.
I am a Berry fan but I really hope there is a trade down option
Mainly because I’m starting to believe Cody is the only true NT in this draft. Everybody points out his weight and he is not on the field all the time, but most NT’s come out on third and long, second and long, etc. We need a beastly guy inside who can plug the middle and that is what Cody does. I’m not sold on Williams especially how fast his stock has risen, he was a mid second round pick and now a lot of people have him in the top 10.
Trade back in the first
Grab Cody with the first second
Hughes with our other second or one from a trade.
Honestly I think the draft board looks more like
#1
Suh DE
McCoy DE – If either of these guys falls to us he’s a chief
Morgan DE/OLB
Jason Pierre-Paul DE/OLB I don’t really like this guy here, but I could see him going here because of physical talent……….see Vernon Gholston
Russell Okung LT
Eric Berry CB
2a
Rolando McClain ILB – slow 40 and krone’s disease
Golden Tate WR
Dan Williams NT – IF he falls this far
Trent Williams OT
Charles Brown OT
Bruce Campbell OT
Carlos Dunlap DE/OLB
Brandon Graham DE/OLB
Sergio Kindle DE/OLB
Nate Allen S
Taylor Mays S
2a is all about who falls out of the first round, there’s too many first round player, Not enough first round.
2b
Nate Allen S
Jason Fox OT
Sergio Kindle OLB
Maurkice Pouncey C/G
Mike Iupati OG
Chris Cook CB
Brandon Ghee CB
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah CB
Round 3
Torrell Troup NT
Terrance Cody NT
Brandon Spikes ILB
Other round 2 drop outs
Colt McCoy if he falls this far
Round 4
Mitch Petrus OG
Sergio Render OG
Eric Olsen C/G
JD Walton C/G
Cam Thomas NT
and skilled position Players that fell out of round 3
Round 5
Colin Peek TE
Cirion Black and other OL
NT’s
again skilled players that have slid
All through the draft I think they’ll be weighing Skilled players that are sliding VS available line talent. Through out this draft I expect the players will be taken because coaches will fall in love with them not because they’re the BPA. I really expect Pioli to lean towards the lines in the draft, to try to lay the foundation for our next 8 years.
I do not see Suh falling to us
McCoy is not a DE plus we have Dorsey/Jackson manning those spots, gonna bench 1 top 5 pick for another?
Do not see Okung lasting until 5 either.
2
McClain will still be taken in the first
Trent/Dan Williams both will have a hard time dropping
I’m a Hughes fan boy, I would take him over Graham/Kindle any day
2b
You see Kindle/Iupati/Pouncey dropping that low in the second?!
by BAMFSpecialOps on Mar 19, 2010 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Think about it
McCoy would be a DE for us, so would Suh……………Quit thinking 4-3
Look at all the players that could go in the first round, how many picks are there, same with the second, there’s guys that are going to fall. No two ways about it, there are going to be guys falling out of every round.
There’s going to be a lot of players fallin 15 to 20 slots lower than they should, and there’s still going to be reach’s. I expect this draft to be a mess, big time.
by mcclanahanman on Mar 19, 2010 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Ok well I will say this again..
McCoy=Dorsey Lite. Meaning he would not be great in a 3-4. Suh is a completely different player than McCoy.
WE HAVE 2 top 5 picks playing DE..would you bench one of them? Exactly.
by BAMFSpecialOps on Mar 19, 2010 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
McCoy definately is not Dorsey Lite
McCoy like Suh has the 3-4 DE frame, and if either Suh or McCoy falls for some wierd reason, either one will be taken, and Dorsey could be sent elsewhere, kept for a season or whatever.
If McCoy had come out last season, he would have been the pick over Tyson Jackson. McCoy and Suh are both DE’s in the 3-4, and Suh would be a 3rd down NT.
Even if McCoy or Suh falls to us I can see us keeping Dorsey for a season, to let the new guy learn for a season behind him.
Really It’s not stupid when the new guy fits your scheme more than the guy you have.
by mcclanahanman on Mar 19, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
McCoy is not a 3-4 DE
he is strictly a 4-3 UT. He uses his short area burst to get through the line to make plays in the backfield, not hold up blockers. Same thing that Dorsey did in college. If Suh falls to us I could see him being the pick and the defense moving to more of a 4-3 under taking advantage of Suh/Dorseys penetrating capabilities. A lot of posters on this board(me included) think Suh could be a pretty decent NT. No way we take McCoy even if he is sitting there an benching a top 5 pick from this year, last year, or the year before. That is a move that is made for Oakland.
by BAMFSpecialOps on Mar 19, 2010 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry I'll disagree again
Suh rushed up the field too, and was allowed to go up the field more than McCoy. If McCoy is taken and Dorsey has a breakout year, look for him to be dealt much in the same way Jared Allen was.
McCoy is a prototypical 3-4 DE just like Suh is. We would have taken McCoy last year in the first if he had come out instead of Jackson.
If Suh is there we’ll take him, and Dorsey will be gone. If McCoy is there we’ll take him, and hang onto Dorsey for one more season.
At NT we’ll take our backup this season and start Smith, our franchise NT will more than likely come in next seasons draft, I think our franchise C comes in the second round of next seasons draft as well.
We’re going to be built over time. Our “core” players this season won’t be our core players next season or the season after.
by mcclanahanman on Mar 19, 2010 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
McClain will not fall out of the first
Iupati and Pouncey will not be there at 2b, and we won’t get into the McCoy 3-4 DE thing again :)
1. Are they an upgrade over what we already have?
2. Do they have high football IQ?
3. Can they make a difference from Day 1?
4. Do they have a history of leadership?
5. Sign him up.
Like I said earlier
Some of these guys are going to slip, just like every other draft there’s going to be reach’s because a coach, scout or gm has fallen in love with a guy. In this year’s draft it’s likely to be a mess, different schemes, styles within schemes, will have certain guys rated above others.
I can see Iupati and Pouncy going in round one, to Pitt, Minnesota or NE, if that happens and the “6 LT’s” all go in round one that’s 1/4 of the first round on the OL, if Suh, McCoy, and Dan Williams all go in round one, that’s 11 out of 32 picks, now, add in Pierre-Paul and Morgan, 13 out of 32 just on the lines, that leaves 19 skilled players, someone is going to slip into round 2, there’s guys that are slated to go in the first that are going to fall into the second half of round 2. You know there’s going to be more pass rushers taken than that, Cody will probably go in round one, Graham could too.
Think about it, some players are going to slip to places you never dreamed of, just because of the depth of this draft, and there’s going to be some moves that leave you scratching your head.
by mcclanahanman on Mar 19, 2010 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
completely agree on guys falling.
That 2a pick is going to be the tricky one because I believe there will be a few guys available that we didn’t know would be there.
The 2a 2b and 3rd round picks will go farther in how we develop as a team than the #5 pick that so many people want to discuss.
I think that they’ll be some shocks, even with us, but I trust that the right guys are there to make the tough (right) decisions.
1. Are they an upgrade over what we already have?
2. Do they have high football IQ?
3. Can they make a difference from Day 1?
4. Do they have a history of leadership?
5. Sign him up.
Yes and to let the Falling Knife fall further
No reason to get cut when you have all the reasons on hand why they are falling.
"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli
by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 19, 2010 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Lets say
Golden Tate, Nate Allen, Brandon Graham and Charles Brown are sitting there at 2a, Terrance Cody, Sergio Kindle and Dan Williams are off of the board, Pouncey and Iupati are gone.
Do you solidify the Safety position with Allen? Do you take a bookend pass rusher to play opposite Hali? Do you take a LT who’s perfect for zone blocking? Do you take Tate to groom?
There will be more ways to go obviously, but lets say these four guys who are projected to go mid to late first round are sitting there, do you take one or do you take the second round talent?
Let’s jump to round 3
Say Jason Fox is sitting there, a guy that if he didn’t get hurt would have been a first round talent. Torrell Troup is sitting there, a guy Crennel likes. Brandon Spikes and Colt McCoy are sitting there.
Troup could play NT for us, Fox could be the swing tackle, eventually replacing O’Callaghan, Spikes was considered a solid ILB in the 3-4, and Colt McCoy. He might never be a starter in the NFL, but he is about Drew Brees’ size and Brees did win a super bowl didn’t he? McCoy could some day be an NFL starter despite his size.
Troup a 3rd round talent one of our coaches likes, Fox a guy who would have gone in the first if he hadn’t gotten hurt, Spikes a guy who might have slid because of a snail slow 40 time but who seems to be a good football player, and a short QB who if he was 3 inches taller would have been a first round prospect.
by mcclanahanman on Mar 19, 2010 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Graham has slid into the top 10
16th pick on Walter
9th on drafttek
"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli
by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 19, 2010 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions
The problem is other teams exist too
and they have needs also
"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli
by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 19, 2010 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions
He might
That’s not what I was saying, there’s guys that are going to be reach’s, and there’s guys that are going to fall.
I’ve read that Pouncey won’t make it out of round 1 today by someone on here, he’s a C that can play guard. Not really a first round pick, more of a second round pick, but Buffalo and Cleveland both took centers in round 1 last season. It’s possible but improbable. Maybe he’d be worth it for Pitt, Minnesota, or the Pats.
If Pouncey goes in round one that’d be a reach, and it’d make another player fall who should have probably gone in that position. Lets say Minnesota takes him.
Let’s say that makes Charles Brown fall out of round 1, St. Louis picks up a DE, Detroit goes with Gresham, and Tampa picks up Benn. Do we pick up that zone blocking T?
Other teams’ needs are going to make talented players fall that should have gone in certain places. Do we draft by need or do we do like Cincy did last year?
The Bengals took almost every player that was falling last year after the first round. The took a lot of players that were supposed to go 10 to 15 slots higher. Do we do that or are we having another draft like last seasons? Are we going to reach or are we going to take BPA that will fit our scheme?
Two year ago Anthony Collins was slated to go in the second, Cincy picked him up in the 3rd or the 4th I don’t remember which. But they took quite a few players like that last season, I kept remembering thinking they got that guy there……..what a steal…….. 2 or 3 times they did that. The one I remember most was a C that they picked up.
Looking at our draft I kept thinking huh, who, why?
by mcclanahanman on Mar 20, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
That would be nice
I agree with the possibility of just taking good players that have been devalued by other teams or maybe to many good players in a certain position overflows down the draft board. I can see that with all of the DB’s and the WR’s and the RB’s.
"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli
by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 20, 2010 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
depends on the depth of certain positions on our board
If O’call becomes a swing tackle and we can take a RT late in the draft, we have improved without sacrificing higher picks. I think one offensive playmaker will be taken. I’d like McCluster at 2b.
I heard that Indy could take Pouncey in the 1st and throw him at guard until saturday retires.
In the scenario above I’d take Graham if he’s there. As far as value goes – passrusher is one of the highest paid positions in the NFL and if we can get a solid player at a 2nd round contract – that’s great value for years.
We know the draft will be defense heavy for us but I’d like to grab a playmaker with one of the top 3 picks. Later rounds for a young NT and OL depth.
1. Are they an upgrade over what we already have?
2. Do they have high football IQ?
3. Can they make a difference from Day 1?
4. Do they have a history of leadership?
5. Sign him up.
Cody
We don’t ask 3-4 NTs to be great atheletes, just earth movers who can overwhelm two guys at once
I’m not sure Haley would agree….he’s been quoted many times saying “We want good football players” meaning IMHO — I want a guy who is able to play more than one position, is big, agile, fast, smart, and just want’s to play football somewhere on the team."
Official Member: Eric Berry Fan Club
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by giftedchiefsfan on Mar 19, 2010 9:16 AM CDT reply actions
Thanks for the post SillyHatDay.
McClain – I don’t think there is any way that McClain is at the top of Pioli’s draft board. There’s too much risk taking a player at #5 overall with a debilitating non-curable disease. Not that Crohn’s is going to be an all the time thing, but he’s going to suffer from flare ups every now and then. Even without the Crohn’s, McClain wasn’t worth a top 10 pick, IMO and according to most mock draft boards.
Williams – Yep. I can see Williams toward the top of Pioli’s board.
Haden - I’m sure that he’s being scouted, but I doubt he’s high up on the priority list. Berry would definitely be above him, since he’s the BPA (overall better DB) and is believed to be able to CB.
Kindle- Again, I’m sure he’s being scouted, but there’s no way he’s this high on the board.
Bryant- Again, I’m sure he’s getting scouted, but there’s a very slim chance he’s this high on the board, and the only reason I say that is because Weis likes to run multiple WR sets. Pioli has never drafted a WR in the first round. He has gone after a lot of WRs in the 2nd round though. And Golden Tate, a student of Weis’ offense might slip into the top of the 2nd.
Berry- He’s way too far down on your list. BPA, possibly the best all around player in this draft. Right 53 material. Instant impact to the defense. ’Nuff said.
Bulaga- Yep. He’s definitely a Pioli type guy. I’m sure he’s being looked at.
2/3 of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Eric Berry.
by Red N Gold Beast on Mar 19, 2010 10:27 AM CDT reply actions
I would be so 'stoked' if this happened
1- E. Berry (SS)
2- G. Tate (WR)*
2- J. Hughes (OLB)
3- T. Troup (NT)
4- J.D. Walton ©
5- A. Owusu-Ansah (DB)
5- J. Conner (FB)
5- M. Johnson (ILB)
- I don’t think Tate is too small for a slot receiver. In fact he has a very compact build with top end speed, great hands (yes, great hands) and mad yards after the catch stats – think, S. Smith of Carolina.
Official Member of the "Draft Eric Berry" Fanclub
...you had me at Berry!
by chiefsfan62 on Mar 19, 2010 11:04 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Not bad.
But I don’t like that there is no pick for OG. While we are looking pretty solid now, we still need depth to be ready to take over for Waters when his contract is up (in 2011 I think) or retires. Aside from that, I like it. Throw Mike Petrus from Arkansas or Mike Johnson from Alabama and we’re good. Take out Owusu-Ansah.
2/3 of the Earth is covered by water. The rest is covered by Eric Berry.
by Red N Gold Beast on Mar 19, 2010 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see
walton or Troup falling to the 4th. to many 3-4 teams now for him to slide like that and walton, maybe because of his position but i think he’s someone that teams would be willing to reach for a bit.
also on Berry, I was trying to say that Pioli will reach for the guy he wants before he’ll take berry, I just don’t know how far he’s willing to reach.
I understand both points...
And I’m just hoping Berry IS the guy Pioli wants and will select; if not available then I think he will consider as follows:
(Good topic, by the way)
Re. McClain – I think he’s completely off the table as a #5 pick for us. Our need for an OLB is far greater.
Re. Williams – I agree, this is a reach potential (don’t rule out Cam Thomas) although better NT values can be had in later rounds.
Re. Haden – possible, but not likely; Earl Thomas would be the more viable option here for a DB.
Re. Kindle – a reach for sure. This need can be satisfied nicely by a 2nd round pick.
Re. Bryant – No! We really need a check-down slot/possession guy. Tate fills this bill nicely. Good Chemistry over Bad Character.
Re. Bulaga – not so much a reach; actally a safe choice. If Okung (miracles happen) fell to 5, Pioli might think twice before selecting Berry.
Official Member of the "Draft Eric Berry" Fanclub
...you had me at Berry!
by chiefsfan62 on Mar 19, 2010 1:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
agree with your sentement,
I don’t think they will draft an o-lineman at 5. But I would be surprised if they don’t pick an o-lineman for one of our 2nd rounders, though.
If Maukice fell to our #2a they should snatch him up right away. A right tackle has to be there somewhere – something. After last year, the debacle the oline was, how can the Chiefs wait untill the 3rd or 4th rounds to pick up a project player?
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