Odds are...

by Ozarks on Mar 17, 2010 3:18 PM CDT

OK, we've been talking for months now about who the Chiefs might draft. I thought I'd put some odds on the possibles and see what the Pride faithful think. These odds are based on whether a player MIGHT be available, and then the chances of "The Don" actually making the call. They have also changed (in my mind, at least) from when the FA period started. Debate away kids!

3-1 Eric Berry - While he's the consensus number one among many at this site, recent signs indicate he might not even be here at the pick. He seems like this year's version of Aaron Curry... there's a general consensus that he's the man for the job. But will Pioli agree? I say, unfortunately, no.

7-2 Trade the pick - I think that this is the way I want things to go. So many needs... so many quality players this year. If both QB's are on the board (or even one that a team covets), I think this result has a real shot.

5-1 Russell Okung - Odds would have been a little lower were it not for the FA moves of the last two weeks. Still, you can never have enough quality O Linemen.

7-1 Rolando McClain - Man, do we need a couple of Inside Linebackers. To hear some, McClain's stock is falling... but I can't tell if it's all just the smoke of draft season wafting over us.

8-1 Dan Williams - NT is an area of extreme need. Williams seems to be the best of a not too deep bunch. Just the kind of reach we saw last year with TJ

10-1 Joe Haden - CB is a real sleeper here. Is Brandon Carr the player who we want starting? This is just the type of thing that Pioli would do... pick the guy that we least expect. Speaking of which, I'll give you a couple of 15-1's:

15-1 Dez Bryant - Kind of a BPA pick. I think he's the best WR in the draft (no offense to Golden Tate).

15-1 Jimmy Claussen - Just for grins.

4-5 NO ONE ON THIS LIST - Because it's Pioli. And by the time you know what the Don is thinking... it's too late.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Comments

way cool and looks about right

… which bookie do I call to place my bet?

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 17, 2010 3:24 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

I'm gonna rec that comment Ups. Couldn't have said it better myself. (Really) lol

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions

What are the odds on...

the Chiefs trading up to get Suh?

Bewsaf

by Bewsaf on Mar 17, 2010 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions

no odds, that would be an imaginary number

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 17, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions

like 5i?

sqrt(-1)?

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 17, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions

something like that ...

… or something like the yardage we got from LJ last year … imaginary

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 17, 2010 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions

ahh, you mean how he jumped from 2.7 to 2.9

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 17, 2010 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions

way cool and looks about right

…which booke do I call to place my bet?

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 3:55 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

but you said booke, not bookie

lol ;)

Winning isnt a matter of life and death, its more important than that.

by Pollard49 on Mar 17, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions

I know it. Dammit. I hoped no one would catch it. But of course this is AP. So.....

Hey listen you blowhard Pollard fan….I have NEVER ever evere ver verv fjedfjifadofad;fjaoidjfiadf …..of course your right.

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Hey there's an echo in here or something.

Ozarks. Always a pleasure my friend. Good post and seriously accurate. I don’t see Pioli taking anyone on anyones radar thus far. He always does the unexpected. Rec’d

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 3:56 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks Kray

Can you tell I just got back from Hot Springs? I really don’t know if the odds are right or not. Just one guys opinion, but I’d take a flyer on Williams at 8-1 and Haden at 10-1.

We are building a fighting force of extwaordinary magnitude.

by Ozarks on Mar 17, 2010 4:15 PM CDT reply actions

Hey zarks, tell me if you agree with this....I don't care as much about any position as NT and Center this draft. TO me

anything else is gravy. If we ONLY NAILED and I mean NAILED those two positions, we would be much improved instantly. So tell me why this Williams is the best NT in the draft? I hear so many good things bout Cody.

I will be honest. I am relieved of a lot of stress with the FA signings we have done so far. But I am not going to relax until I KNOW we got a stellar center and NT. How about you ?

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions

You don't like Weigmann who started all year for Denver last year?

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Its not that I like or don't like him. Its that I read things about him that are not all that favorable.

Like he’s good. But he’s another stop gap. Temp. I want to feel good knowing we have that franchise center and NT in place. I don’t Weigmann that well.

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't know about Weigmann too much. I haven't followed him very much you know?

Hes a center. So they don’t get a lot of airtime on NFL network. And thats my college. Any input on the guy?

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions

He has played very well for KC and also Denver

when we ran a Zone-Blocking scheme.
We quit running the scheme and let Weigmann go, Denver quit the scheme and let Weigmann go. We started running the scheme again and picked him up.
Weigmann can play the Center spot well enough to let us wait one season or two while we get a whole lot more holes filled properly. IMO that Waters is very happy and maybe he wants to play here a little more now. I guess if someone knows how Waters and Weigmann feel about each other it would be a nice bonus on all my suppositions.

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions

he is 37 getting old

need to groom a replacement like Pouncey with pick 2a give Weigmann 2 yrs and he is done

"It doesn't matter what you do in Life only that you do it the best you can. "

by sgthall on Mar 17, 2010 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes, I agree though he is 36 right now:)

wiki

But which is a better plan? Waiting one year and drafting better possible players
or trading back up for Pouncey? JD Walton
Matt Tennant

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions

while he might drop to us

we will probably have to trade up to get him which with all our needs is not a really viable option we need all the picks we have. unless we trade down our #5 pick to cleveland and pick up their #14 pick but that should be used on Dan Williams as NT is a bigger need. But hey this is all a wing and a prayer and the luck of the draw. thats why we all scream and yell at our TV’s during the draft.

"It doesn't matter what you do in Life only that you do it the best you can. "

by sgthall on Mar 17, 2010 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions

If you didn't know already I have a full reportie of links

Wing and a Prayer

Maybe Pioli will help us out on that though :)

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions

How about drafting Walton

In the 3rd round and let Casey show him the ropes.

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 17, 2010 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions

doubt Walton falls that far ... love to have him, but might need to go 2b

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 18, 2010 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah

I just hope we do draft 1 of the better C early this year, i don’t care which really, just with our 3rd or 4th pick.

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 18, 2010 2:09 AM CDT up reply actions

I like Weigmann

To train Walton at the position this year. :P

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 17, 2010 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions

I like Weigmann to fill the spot in 2010 and part of 2011

While O’Dowd comes up to speed

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions

ODowd

I thought he stayed in college, or maybe I’m thinking of some one else. S.Wisnieski will be available next year, he would be a great grab for the C spot, if we don’t get one this year.

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 18, 2010 2:12 AM CDT up reply actions

he did

steve wants to pick him up next year

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 18, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok reread it duh

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 18, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm not a big film guy

Leaving that to the experts. Williams is just ahead of Cody on most mocks. Cody looks FAT! Yeah, I guess I should have put that FLA Center (Pouncey) on here…

You’re right on about the areas of need. But you could add a couple more positions too. We WERE 4-12 after all.

We are building a fighting force of extwaordinary magnitude.

by Ozarks on Mar 17, 2010 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Well yah. THat's why I said MOST important. WE have several important needs for sure lol.

CAn’t argue that.

by krayfish on Mar 17, 2010 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I wonder what the Vegas lines are

I imagine there are some, some people bet on anything

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 4:21 PM CDT reply actions

Hidden behind the 4-5 window is......

Tebow

"It doesn't matter what you do in Life only that you do it the best you can. "

by sgthall on Mar 17, 2010 4:23 PM CDT reply actions

That would be like getting whacked on your way to being made!

We are building a fighting force of extwaordinary magnitude.

by Ozarks on Mar 17, 2010 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Hahha

a Goodfellas’ quote

Tommy DeVito: You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it’s me, I’m a little fucked up maybe, but I’m funny how, I mean funny like I’m a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I’m here to fuckin’ amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Ok...I'm a Kool-Aide drinker, but

I’m surprised the Dan Williams idea doesn’t warrant better odds. The guy is first round talent and would still permit us the opportunity of drafting a very good S in the 2nd or 3rd round who is capable of winning the starting position at FS easily.

Official Member: Eric Berry Fan Club
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N. Gift

by giftedchiefsfan on Mar 17, 2010 5:04 PM CDT reply actions

I would love it if we draft Dan Williams for two reasons...

1) We would lock up the most important position in the 3-4 (NT) for the next decade.

and

2) We would gank Denvers DL of the future 2 years in a row (Did it last year when we grabbed up Tyson Jackson).

by DivineGrace on Mar 17, 2010 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions

IMO that Denver wants McClain

then Williams

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions

yep

by CPT.Caveman on Mar 17, 2010 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions

"Most" Mock Drafts I have seen have Denver taking Williams with their #11 overall pick.

I don’t think McClain will fall to #11 this year no matter who we take at #5 (Berry, Williams, OL, etc). If we take Williams at #5, and McClain doesn’t make it to #11 then who do you think Denver will take?

by DivineGrace on Mar 17, 2010 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Open question

I could see WR, NT could always be the pick, They could grab anyone.
Spikes if they wanted McClain in the 1st place, Cody if Williams is gone.
Maybe some of the Guys I would like in the tweener rush LB category.
Dumeriel has worked out

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions

anyone but Spoon ... omg noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Mar 18, 2010 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't know that you can say its absolutely locked up with Dan Williams

He played in a 4-3 at Tennessee I think. He seems to have the most potential of the prospects this year, but D linemen positions are a very long and difficult transition, and never a sure thing. I share your optimism, but wonder if the better move is to try to draft someone that doesn’t have the longer, risker transition now, and take a NT in the later rounds, like Troupe. Less risk, and I believe there is less risk involved.

I also need to add, I think some risk is necessary, but I would rather see us take those bigger risks with the lower round picks for now. When we have more pieces in place and we are about to fill in a couple sopts and the rest of the picks are for depth and flyers, then we can go high with those.

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 17, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions

And of course, I think Berry is the safer pick that is still a dynamic force in a position of severe need.

And i’m not some vol homer, I am actually and husker. I just think Berry would have the biggest marginal benefit of any pick we are able to take where we are.

Trading down is difficult, I don’t consider that at this point because I do not think it will happen. I’ve discussed in on here a couple times already, but why not briefly one more time:

Most years, it is hard to trade down, especially out of the top 5. It doesn’t happen too often. I know it happened last year, but that does not make it the norm. Also consider that last year was considered by most to be a weak draft. Now let’s look at this year. It a deep draft, one considered to be the deepest in some time. The biggest reason people do not trade up in to those top spots is because those players are expensive, and you have to give up several picks, or a few nice picks, to get up there. In a deep draft (this year) teams have a much lower propensity to give up those picks. They want to keep them for their own devices. In a weak draft (last year, when the browns trade occurred, and considered to be a weak draft class), there is a greater propensity to trade up in the draft, because those picks are going to yield less value than most years, thereby effectively lowering the cost of the player (in terms of picks) you want to draft. I approach this from the prospective of the team that wants to move up, because that’s the dancing partner that’s difficult to find. Seems like every year someone wants out of the top. In fact, several do; and everyone wants more pick this year.

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 17, 2010 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions

That's what that value sheet needs

A multiplier based on the “strength” of the draft numerated.

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 17, 2010 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Nice train of thought

next year will be a weaker draft and hopefully a flood of UFA’s with a new CBA.
I agree maybe waiting on the NT till later rounds.
I would definitely take Suh if he falls to #5
I would definitely take Cody if he falls to 2a

Why not :)

"For what we are about to see next, we must enter quietly into the realm of genius." Scott "Young Frankenstein" Pioli

by Steve_Chiefs on Mar 17, 2010 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions

If we have football next year

which in NOT a conversation I will start right now, the 2011 draft will be VERY weak in my opinion. I know there are still a few guys that could be exciting that didn’t come out this year, but most of them did. I like Julio Jones, but we’ll probably be picking at like 15-20 next year, so he probably wont be there, unless he keeps dropping the ball like he did at the end of this season.

It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Thanks

Member of the Eric Berry Fan Club
Snap the fucking ball Brodie!

by jakethesnake27 on Mar 17, 2010 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions