Please explain something to me (draft)

“Take a chance on me” :)

Just have to roll the dice and see what you get.

Just an observation from a Chiefs fan that can’t get excited about college football and all of the hype that is perpetuated by the media.

Different strokes for different folks. I have a lot harder time getting excited about NFL football and the hype that is perpetuated by the media, because it’s much more of a product of media hype that college football is.

It annoys me to no end when I see people talking about prospects they’ve never watched in games, and have seen either just YouTube videos or NOT AT ALL. I watch college football every night during the week that it’s available, all day Saturday (except sometimes Saturday nights, which is party and sexy time), and record a few Saturday games that I don’t get to watch because of other games—and then I usually watch those recorded CFB games on Sunday, when the NFL is trotting out another mediocre product in, say, a Washington vs. Philadelphia game. But I try pretty hard to not get excited or even push the idea of guys I haven’t watched play unless I’m freely admitting that I don’t know much about the guy and have only seen workout numbers or read blurbs.

but, it’s all about potential

it’s the same fun as a fantasy football league

I don’t even know the rules. I know there’s differences but I dont’ know what they are. So I am with you there. To add to the conundrum, here’s my dilemma that goes along with yours.

Okay, admittedly Brandon Marshall turned out to be a disgusting human being after further research. But lets say he wasn’t a bad person. He just didn’t like McDaniels. The next problem I hear from people is that he would cost too many draft picks.

So explain this to me. If what I understand is correct. I read somewhere recently that IF, IF a team actually had 7 picks in the draft. One each round whatever. The article says that on average and as a general rule, if 3 of those 7 panned out. In other words, if three of your picks started their careers with your team, had LONG prosperous careers with your team, until the organization felt they were no longer needed, then that would be considered a homerun draft. That would be a great job of drafting. Like LT for San Diego. He gets drafted, he impacts and continues to do so and spends the majority of his career there contributing until he is replaceable.. That’s why you draft guys. For that.

But according to this dudes calculations, which are not official by any means, if even two panned out, you would consider that draft a big success. Which means that on average, in general, half or more draft picks do not pan out at all. They end up somewhere else. They become a backup. Some guys make a living on practice squads every year.Whatever the case, over half of all draft picks in any given draft do NOT pan out or live up to the expectations of the team drafting them.

If thats even reasonably accurate, and someone LIKE a BM talentwise, anyone any position, I don’t care if its Chris Chambers. ANYONE with mega talent is going to cost draft picks period. You gotta pay if you want them to play. So, I don’t get the big deal about spending 3 or 4 picks on one guy if he is a LOCK. If he’s established himself as a game changer at his position and could bring a lot to the table. Odds are 3 or 4 of your picks will go for naught anyway. It’s all a risk. But if you give up draft picks for a sure fire superstar game changer, there’s no risk. He’s proven.

I don’t know. Just seems like in most draft scenarios that you could give up a handful of picks to get the guy you NEED.

Remember when you were a kid and there was that one bad ass G.I. Joe you wanted? That’s kind of how the draft is. It brings the promise of new toys to add to our collection. Unfortunately sometimes you want Snake Eyes and end up with Flint.

That’s just the way it is.

Particularly not since Michigan has been awful lately.

However, I get very interested in the college players & the draft because this is where the the future of the Chiefs is. It’s not like baseball where you have a draft & don’t hear anything about the players again for another 3-5 years. A lot of these guys can be starters on the team next year. Now I’ll freely admit that I don’t know anything about evaluating talent, I pretty much have to go with what others say. I’m far more interested in how the draft is used to fill out the team than I am in the individual players who are taken…I’ll trust the judgment of Pioli & Co when it comes to the names.

You have the inductive data from game film, interviews with the player, interviews with former coaches and teammates, the Combine and Pro Days, the level of competition in the conference he played, what kind of background/upbringing he has, what type of skillset he has and how it translates, etc.

Then you just pretty much cross your fingers and pray to the Lord.

Personally, I prefer the college game, because it shows more variety in offenses and defenses and is also a much more “team” oriented game. Navy, with its triple option and its 6 foot, 260 lb o-lineman can beat Notre Dame and all their pro prospects, because one is a team and the other is a collection of athletes. That’s why the Patriots and now the Chiefs are such a novelty in the NFL, since they emphasize the “process” and team chemistry over individual athletic prowess.

Everytime I get in a conversation over here, the gulf between college and pro football, at least as far as fans view it, becomes starkly obvious.

Many of the best athletes play in SEC or are from the states of Florida/Texas. It’s just a fact. These schools are filled with NFL talent year in and year out. So when we look at someone like Berry, we can be pretty certain (75%?) that he will be good to very good. But there are other facotrs to take into consideration, and you are correct, foro example Ryan Sims (sorry I had to say his name). He may have just benefited from the great player he played beside-Julius Peppers. So, Suh is leaving Nebraska thsi yr. They have another stud def lineman (Crick?). He had great stats this yr and they are projecting Nebraska’s def to be just as good or better nexy yr. I’m not so sure about thta as Crick may have been so successful this yr due to Suh getting all the attention.
But I think, in the modern era that the #1 factor is heart/desire/passion. This is hard to evaluate. But many players get paid and pack up their testicles and just play for a paycheck. I understand that though. JaFatness Rusell is a prime example (not showing up to voluntary workouts today, again).
Peyton Manning, argauable the top 3 greates qb’s of all time! went 11-2 his senior year and didnt win a title. Next season after Peyton goes pro, guess who wins national title? Tenn Volunteers. Crazy.
It is a crapshoot, you are right. But college football is the minor league NFL farm system. It’s what is in place to evaluate players and for what it’s worth, it works pretty well. Most of the talented players get drafted in rds 1-2 and many of them are successful. It’s the Warner’s and the Priest Holmes of the world that amaze me. Undrafted greatness. But those players are way harder to come by.