Bowe's "Bang For His Buck"
A combination of being a stat nerd, growing increasingly tired of all the fuss over not acquiring Anquan Boldin and claims that Bowe will never be more than a good #2 receiver has driven me to finally research something I have been curious of for most of this off-season. I see an unlimited amount of potential in Bowe that can make him nearly every bit as good as Andre Johnson. I wanted to compare Bowe’s stats from his first three seasons to those of other (good) first round picks from their first three years to see if my hope in him is justified or overly optimistic. Here is my data…
Dwayne Bowe’s stats after 3 seasons:
Totals: 43 games, 203 catches, 2606 yards, 16 touchdowns, 131 first downs
Averages per game: 4.72 catches, 60.60 yards, 0.37 touchdowns, 3.04 first downs
Here are the stats of receivers taken in round one since 1996 (who actually had good careers)…
Keyshawn Johnson (1st overall in 1996)
Totals: 46 games, 216 catches, 2938 yards, 23 touchdowns, 152 first downs
Averages per game: 4.69 catches, 63.86 yards, 0.50 touchdowns, 3.30 first downs
Marvin Harrison (19th overall in 1996)
Totals: 44 games, 196 catches, 2478 yards, 21 touchdowns, 129 first downs
Averages per game: 4.45 catches, 56.31 yards, 0.47 touchdowns, 2.93 first downs
Eric Moulds (24th overall in 1996)
Totals: 48 games, 116 catches, 1941 yards, 11 touchdowns, 83 first downs
Averages per game: 2.41 catches, 40.43 yards, 0.22 touchdowns, 1.72 first downs
Randy Moss (21st overall in 1998)
Totals: 48 games, 226 catches, 4163 yards, 43 touchdowns, 161 first downs
Averages per game: 4.70 catches, 86.72 yards, 0.89 touchdowns, 3.35 first downs
Torry Holt (6th overall in 1999)
Totals: 48 games, 215 catches, 3786 yards, 19 touchdowns, 150 first downs
Averages per game: 4.47 catches, 78.87 yards, 0.39 touchdowns, 3.12 first downs
Plaxico Burress (8th overall in 2000)
Totals: 44 games, 166 catches, 2606 yards, 13 touchdowns, 125 first downs
Averages per game: 3.77 catches, 59.22 yards, 0.29 touchdowns, 2.84 first downs
Santana Moss (16th overall in 2001)
Totals: 36 games, 106 catches, 1578 yards, 14 touchdowns, 71 first downs
Averages per game: 2.94 catches, 43.83 yards, 0.38 touchdowns, 1.97 first downs
Reggie Wayne (30th overall in 2001)
Totals: 45 games, 144 catches, 1899 yards, 11 touchdowns, 103 first downs
Averages per game: 3.2 catches, 42.2 yards, 0.24 touchdowns, 2.28 first downs
Andre Johnson (3rd overall in 2003)
Totals: 45 games, 208 catches, 2806 yards, 12 touchdowns, 138 first downs
Averages per game: 4.62 catches, 62.35 yards, 0.26 touchdowns, 3.06 first downs
Larry Fitzgerald (3rd overall in 2004)
Totals: 45 games, 230 catches, 3135 yards, 24 touchdowns, 155 first downs
Averages per game: 5.11 catches, 69.66 yards, 0.53 touchdowns, 3.44 first downs
Lee Evans (13th overall in 2004)
Totals: 48 games, 178 catches, 2878 yards, 24 touchdowns, 120 first downs
Averages per game: 3.70 catches, 59.95 yards, 0.50 touchdowns, 2.50 first downs
Braylon Edwards (3rd overall in 2005)
Totals: 42 games, 173 catches, 2685 yards, 25 touchdowns, 117 first downs
Averages per game: 4.11 catches, 63.92 yards, 0.59 touchdowns, 2.78 first downs
Roddy White (27th overall in 2005)
Totals: 48 games, 142 catches, 2154 yards, 9 touchdowns, 94 first downs
Averages per game: 2.95 catches, 44.87 yards, 0.18 touchdowns, 1.95 first downs
Now here are the stats of the two receivers drafted before Bowe in 2007...
Calvin Johnson (2nd overall in 2007)
Totals: 45 games, 193 catches, 3071 yards, 21 touchdowns, 136 first downs
Averages per game: 4.28 catches, 68.24 yards, 0.46 touchdowns, 3.02 first downs
Ted Ginn Jr. (9th overall in 2007)
Totals: 48 games, 128 catches, 1664 yards, 5 touchdowns, 79 first downs
Averages per game: 2.66 catches, 34.66 yards, 0.10 touchdowns, 1.64 first downs
* has 2 rushing touchdowns, 1 punt return touchdown and 2 kick return touchdowns: makes overall average = 0.20 touchdowns per game
Among this list, only Fitzgerald averaged more catches per game than Bowe after their first three seasons. Only Randy Moss, Fitzgerald and Braylon Edwards averaged more touchdowns per game than Bowe (and he tied with Lee Evans). And finally, only Keyshawn, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald moved the chains more times per game than Bowe.
BE PATIENT CHIEFS FANS, OPEN YOUR EYES, AND BEGIN TO SEE IN BOWE THE SAME THINGS THAT HALEY SEES IN HIM TOO.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Obviously various factors influence stats
and so for that, I hope for the debating to begin.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
One being the fact that most of those receivers improved
Where DBowe, technically, has regressed this season. Granted there are a lot of factors there — one being his suspension (even though he brought it on himself), another being having to focus so much more than just catching the ball.
“Ok, 46 x-out… is that a 5 yard-out or a 10-yard out, shit… Uh oh, looks like Doom is blitzing — fuck, what’s my hot read again?!”
Aaaaand dropped. I can see those things happening and affecting his confidence on the field.
This season will be very telling, and there will be no excuses. I don’t know if I’ve seen Andre Johnson potential there, as you say, but he could definitely be a top 5 wideout in this league.
"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius
I'm hoping the biggest factors for his drop in production
are the suspension, as well as the Chiefs players going through 4 different offensive systems in less than one full calendar year. First it was Herm & Chan’s conservative approach, then the [your name] ArrowSpread, then Haley & Chan’s offense all through the off-season, only to later become Haley’s system entirely the week before the season began.
On a side note, the touchdown numbers blew my mind when I saw most guys averaged one every two or three games, yet Randy Moss nearly averaged one per game.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
You left out one important stat. DROPPED PASSES!!
No one thinks bowe sucks. The question mark is can you count on him in a pressure playoff game or SB on a MUST have play? Will he drop the ball? Who knows? It’s not about potential or talent in his case. He’s got plenty of both.
Consistency is the problem with Bowe. If anyone can heal him of it, it’s coach Haley. But until he proves he can hang on to the football, he will pretty much be considered a Braylon Edwards type guy. A guy with so much promise, but no consistency. He can’t be trusted.
Thats the issue here. I love Bowe. But he made this reputation for himself. He earned it.
Lol I was afraid to even research that one
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
But then again
I’m not a diehard fan of any other team, so who knows…maybe some of these players frustrated fans with their inconsistent play early in their careers too?
I dont know if that’s the case or not, I’m just throwing that out there and being optimistic.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
Agree with Kray
Almost everyone thinks he could be a hellava WR for the Chiefs, it’s just that he drops a lot of easy passes…plus being out of shape, the diuretics thing, and just overall underachieving that makes us worry.
Don't Fuccop Succop
by chicks_love_chiefs on Mar 10, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
yep...I just don't trust a guy like that...can't trust HIM, his HANDS...just not what you want from a TOP wr
Scott Pioli will find a way to make NT the biggest offseason priority.
KC Will Trade Derrick Johnson
Yup, Kray.
He’s the very definition of a yo-yo player.
"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius
This is some great work.
Nice post. Makes me feel good about him. Glad Chambers is back and I hope the support on the other side elevates both their games. Rec’d
Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!
Nice post
I agree with you that we should be fine with Chambers and Bowe. Add a slot guy and our passing game will be okay…plus we should have an awesome running attack to take some pressure off these guys.
Boldin will be an afterthought once the season starts.
8-8 could win win the west in 2010
Twitter! @phillipbrown
I would love it if we would draft Shipley for the slot
Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!
i think we'd be even better if we added a decent TE
regardless of how haley’s offense used TE’s in the past, i still think a great TE can be a huge weapon. Plus maybe haley never had a really good TE to work with so he just phased that aspect out.
wow, awesome post and rec'd just for the research, work and time ... well done!
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whitlock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!
You have to consider another factor for his drop in production...
This was the first year when he was the no. 1 reciever on our team. How much influence did having Tony G on our team the first 2 years have? I still think that we need more weapons on offense. Whether it’s Dez Bryant, Golden Tate or Arrelious Benn I don’t care.
This is great work on your part. I appreciate it a lot.Lots of work went into this post.
I think your right tho about Bowe. I love Bowe. I didn’t mean to sound down on Bowe. Just pointing out that if he has one weakness, that’s it. I am rec’ing this post because of all the work and enthusiasm you put into it. Tks again.
Thanks everyone
Prior to resigning Chambers, I was sitting shotgun on the Golden Tate bandwagon but I’m starting to back off. I certainly wont be upset if we do draft him, but I’m now much more accepting to waiting to the 3rd round for a slot receiver, whether that be a guy like Mardy Gilyard, Jordan Shipley, Jacoby Ford, etc.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
The Chargers took a receiver in the first
That same year. His name? Craig “Buster” Davis. Who? Exactly!
Bowe was a very solid selection.
Can u list how many dropped passes he has
and compare them to your list? Just curious no slamming him.
This is the best I could find
both of the links show stats from the 2008 season…
for drops leaders, here’s the link…
http://sports.excite.com/nfl/stats/league/passesdropped.html
and for total passes not caught, here you go…
http://sports.excite.com/nfl/stats/league/passesnotcaught.html
The drops is alarming because he’s almost double the average, but the total passes not caught appears to be misleading since Tony Gonzalez is right behind Bowe…which should be a testament to how horrid the QB play was for most of 2008.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
many thx
shame we can’t compare with those on your list, his drops r high but doesn’t that also have to do with Cassel’s delivery or his being rushed cause the oline sux considering as a team we had over 40 and with more time(practice) shouldn’t this drop if we improve the line?
dropped passes are annoying
but, they dont’ mean that a player hasn’t been productive
nobody argues the value of TO’s on the field production, even though he drops more than anyone.
dropped passes kill drives and momentum, and irritate coaches… but they are NOT the end of the world for a receiver
* KC now has the best coaching staff in the league
* 9-7 is a real possibility in 2010 IF the Chiefs get 4 new starters
* keep Albert at LT, upgrade the positions that NEED upgrading.C, RG, NT, S, LB
Very true
I was very surprised to see that almost 2/3 of Bowe’s catches result in first downs. It seemed like all he got were short slants and screens, so that speaks volumes about his ability to break tackles and do some damage IF he catches the ball.
The studs from the 2010 draft class will be: DT Ndamukong Suh, S Eric Berry, RB C.J. Spiller, RB Jahvid Best, WR Arrelious Benn, WR Golden Tate, WR Mardy Gilyard, OT Charles Brown, CB Kyle Wilson and S Chad Jones
Bowe is the shizzzzz
Sure, he had an off year. He had a new hard balling coach. He had the grandma incident. I believe he is “All Pro” in the way he handled the mess. I have faith that he’ll be back with a vengeance this year. Not in the since that he’ll have a chip on his shoulder, but in the manner to show his beloved fans the true person that he truly is.
The guy is top notch in regards to everything you want in an NFL Pro – sans the weight loss mishap. He’ll bring it again and again. Ya’ll remember his first two seasons where he caught just about everything? No worries, Chambers and Charles will fill TG’s void from last year when they’re all three out there this season.
I’m so confident in the guy that it will surely be my second purchased jersey behind Tamba’s.
Somewhere over Da Wayne Bowe there’s a shinny Super Bowe ring in our futures feller fanatics!
Prediction: With the #5 pick, the Kansas City Chiefs take someone we've never freakin` heard of...
I have seen
Bowe make great catches and I have seen Bowe drop soft ball passes that I could have handled. How does that exist in the same player? Kray hit it on the head. Bowe is not consistent enough to be your go to guy at this point. In ANY game. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a high pressure event, he seems to fluctuate between good and bad regardless of the situation. Stats don’t take intangibles into consideration. Why would a guy who is a hard worker resort to taking diet pills to lose weight? Lazy. Why would a guy who has confidence in his ability to make the play, spend his time in practice dancing and celebrating a catch? Was he thumbing his nose at the coach? Stupid. Let your play on the field define your place on the team. Dwayne needs to seperate the I from TEAM. Haley will get him there if he has it in him. If he doesn’t he won’t succed for long anywhere in the NFL.
Very nice work kc_rad
That sure is enlightening…perhaps this will be the breakout year we all hope it will be for young Bowe
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by giftedchiefsfan on Mar 10, 2010 7:25 PM CST reply actions
interesting stats
imagine wat his stats would be like if he didnt drop so many balls. really thats his only fault. if he can improve that he could be a pro bowler next season
by trentchiefsfan on Mar 10, 2010 11:14 PM CST reply actions
Funny
Every time I here about Bowe making spectacular catches and missing easy ones, I think of my father compaining about another talented Chief’s reciever 40 years ago.
The great Otis taylor,
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