FanPost

Is Taking a QB in Rounds 2-4 the Answer?

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If you have been a Chiefs fan for very long you understand the yearning the KC faithful have had for a "franchise" quarterback.  We received the teaser for a couple of years when Kansas City borrowed the former San Fransisco 49er great, Joe Montana.  And we all had the pleasure of watching Trent Green power the great offensive machine put together by Dick Vermeil.

But when are we going to grow one of our own?

Matt Cassel might or might not be able to power the next offensive machine for the Chiefs.  Time will tell.   But while he tries...how should the Chiefs go about developing the next great franchise quarterback?

In my last post, Should Floundering Teams Shoot the Moon for a Franchise QB?, I explored the success teams have had with top 5 picks when the QB had poor lines and bad run games their first year.   If you recall, the inquiry discovered that top 5 quarterbacks that have poor lines and poor run games have a 17% success rate.  Teams with good lines and good run games had a 100% success rate with their top 5 QB.

This post will review the success that quarterbacks have had when selected in rounds 2-4.  How successful can we expect a quarterback to be if we take one that is worthy of a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick?

Can, and have, teams gotten Franchise quarterbacks in rounds 2-4?  What are the odds?

Below, is a chart of the quarterbacks taken in round 2 since the 2000 draft.  As you can see, there has been 7.  The bar graph to the right of each player represents the QB's NFL longevity, number of NFL starts, and production.

Quarterbacks Taken in The Second Round
Year Drafted Player Team NFL Quality
2001
#32 pick Drew Brees
Chargers
2001
#53 pick Quincy Carter
Cowboys
2001
#59 pick
Marques Tuiasosopo
Raiders
2006
#49  pick
Kellen Clemens
Jets
2006
#64 pick
Tarvaris Jackson
Vikings
2007
#36 pick
Kevin Kolb
Eagles
2007
#43 pick
Drew Stanton
Lions

Bar Graphics from Draftinsider.com

Observations of the graph above:

  • Taking a quarterback in the 2nd round looks to be a mixed bag. 
  • Over the past 9 years an NFL team would have had a 14% Chance of getting a franchise quarterback in the second round.
  • Teams had a 42% chance of getting a quality backup.

Quarterbacks Taken in The Third Round
Year Drafted Player Team NFL Quality
2000
#65 pick Giovanni Carmazzi
Chargers
2000
#75 pick Chris Redman
Cowboys
2002
#81 pick
Josh McCown
Raiders
2003
#88  pick
Dave Ragone
Jets
2003
#97  pick
Chris Simms
Vikings
2004
#90  pick
Matt Schaub
Falcons
2005
#67 pick
Charlie Frye
Browns
2005
#69  pick
Andrew Walter
Raiders
2005
#85  pick
David Greene
Seahawks
2006
#81  pick
Charlie Whitehurst
Chargers
2006
#85  pick
Brodie Croyle
Chiefs
2007
#92  pick
Trent Edwards
Bills

Observations of the graph above:

  • There has been one solid 3rd rounder developed into a franchise QB since 2000. 
  • Although more quarterbacks have failed to produce even as backups in round 3 than round 2...it appears there has been more success as quality backups and periodic starters than the 2nd round.

 

Quarterbacks Taken in The Fourth Round
Year Drafted Player Team NFL Quality
2001
#125 pick Jesse Palmer
Giants
2001
#109 pick Sage Rosenfels
Redskins
2002
#117 pick
Rohan Davey
Patriots
2002
#108  pick
David Garrard
Jaguars
2003
#110 pick
Seneca Wallace
Seahawks
2004
#106 pick
Luke McCown
Browns
2005
#121 pick
 Stefan Lefors
Panthers
2005
#106 pick
Kyle Orton
Purdue
2007
#103 pick
 Isaiah Stanback
Cowboys
Moved to WR in NFL

Observations of the graph above:

  •  You would think that the production of QBs taken in the fourth round would be less than that of the 2nd round.  Well, its not.
  • Since 2000 a team has gotten a quality backup in round four 50% of the time as apposed to a 42% chance with the 2nd round pick.

So what does this tell us?

After musing over my last two posts it tells me that if you need the franchise quarterback you better take him high in the draft.  And if you take one high in the draft then you better build up that offensive line and run game before you throw him to the wolves.

In my last post I showed you that a top 5 draft pick that had a high sack count and low running game rank had a 17% chance of being successful.   In this post we can see that teams have had a 14% chance of getting a franchise QB in round 2 since 2000.  And a 15% chance of getting a quality starter in rounds 3 and 4 combined.

We all dream about getting a Tom Brady.  Problem is a team cannot base a philosophy around such a poor statistical chance of success.   If a team wants a good career backup then taking a QB in rounds 2-4 is a good plan of action.  It is ok to take those QBs in the later rounds as backups and "dream" you hit the jackpot.

But if you want a solid plan to reach the Super Bowl with your own home grown QB.  You better plan on getting that QB in the first round.  And if you get one in the first round you better plan on getting a good line and run game if you want him to make the transformation into that franchise quarterback.

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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