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Is Taking a QB in Rounds 2-4 the Answer?

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If you have been a Chiefs fan for very long you understand the yearning the KC faithful have had for a "franchise" quarterback.  We received the teaser for a couple of years when Kansas City borrowed the former San Fransisco 49er great, Joe Montana.  And we all had the pleasure of watching Trent Green power the great offensive machine put together by Dick Vermeil.

But when are we going to grow one of our own?

Matt Cassel might or might not be able to power the next offensive machine for the Chiefs.  Time will tell.   But while he tries...how should the Chiefs go about developing the next great franchise quarterback?

In my last post, Should Floundering Teams Shoot the Moon for a Franchise QB?, I explored the success teams have had with top 5 picks when the QB had poor lines and bad run games their first year.   If you recall, the inquiry discovered that top 5 quarterbacks that have poor lines and poor run games have a 17% success rate.  Teams with good lines and good run games had a 100% success rate with their top 5 QB.

This post will review the success that quarterbacks have had when selected in rounds 2-4.  How successful can we expect a quarterback to be if we take one that is worthy of a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick?

Can, and have, teams gotten Franchise quarterbacks in rounds 2-4?  What are the odds?

Star-divide

Below, is a chart of the quarterbacks taken in round 2 since the 2000 draft.  As you can see, there has been 7.  The bar graph to the right of each player represents the QB's NFL longevity, number of NFL starts, and production.

Quarterbacks Taken in The Second Round
Year Drafted Player Team NFL Quality
2001
#32 pick Drew Brees
Chargers
2001
#53 pick Quincy Carter
Cowboys
2001
#59 pick
Marques Tuiasosopo
Raiders
2006
#49  pick
Kellen Clemens
Jets
2006
#64 pick
Tarvaris Jackson
Vikings
2007
#36 pick
Kevin Kolb
Eagles
2007
#43 pick
Drew Stanton
Lions

Bar Graphics from Draftinsider.com

Observations of the graph above:

  • Taking a quarterback in the 2nd round looks to be a mixed bag. 
  • Over the past 9 years an NFL team would have had a 14% Chance of getting a franchise quarterback in the second round.
  • Teams had a 42% chance of getting a quality backup.

Quarterbacks Taken in The Third Round
Year Drafted Player Team NFL Quality
2000
#65 pick Giovanni Carmazzi
Chargers
2000
#75 pick Chris Redman
Cowboys
2002
#81 pick
Josh McCown
Raiders
2003
#88  pick
Dave Ragone
Jets
2003
#97  pick
Chris Simms
Vikings
2004
#90  pick
Matt Schaub
Falcons
2005
#67 pick
Charlie Frye
Browns
2005
#69  pick
Andrew Walter
Raiders
2005
#85  pick
David Greene
Seahawks
2006
#81  pick
Charlie Whitehurst
Chargers
2006
#85  pick
Brodie Croyle
Chiefs
2007
#92  pick
Trent Edwards
Bills

Observations of the graph above:

  • There has been one solid 3rd rounder developed into a franchise QB since 2000. 
  • Although more quarterbacks have failed to produce even as backups in round 3 than round 2...it appears there has been more success as quality backups and periodic starters than the 2nd round.

 

Quarterbacks Taken in The Fourth Round
Year Drafted Player Team NFL Quality
2001
#125 pick Jesse Palmer
Giants
2001
#109 pick Sage Rosenfels
Redskins
2002
#117 pick
Rohan Davey
Patriots
2002
#108  pick
David Garrard
Jaguars
2003
#110 pick
Seneca Wallace
Seahawks
2004
#106 pick
Luke McCown
Browns
2005
#121 pick
 Stefan Lefors
Panthers
2005
#106 pick
Kyle Orton
Purdue
2007
#103 pick
 Isaiah Stanback
Cowboys
Moved to WR in NFL

Observations of the graph above:

  •  You would think that the production of QBs taken in the fourth round would be less than that of the 2nd round.  Well, its not.
  • Since 2000 a team has gotten a quality backup in round four 50% of the time as apposed to a 42% chance with the 2nd round pick.

So what does this tell us?

After musing over my last two posts it tells me that if you need the franchise quarterback you better take him high in the draft.  And if you take one high in the draft then you better build up that offensive line and run game before you throw him to the wolves.

In my last post I showed you that a top 5 draft pick that had a high sack count and low running game rank had a 17% chance of being successful.   In this post we can see that teams have had a 14% chance of getting a franchise QB in round 2 since 2000.  And a 15% chance of getting a quality starter in rounds 3 and 4 combined.

We all dream about getting a Tom Brady.  Problem is a team cannot base a philosophy around such a poor statistical chance of success.   If a team wants a good career backup then taking a QB in rounds 2-4 is a good plan of action.  It is ok to take those QBs in the later rounds as backups and "dream" you hit the jackpot.

But if you want a solid plan to reach the Super Bowl with your own home grown QB.  You better plan on getting that QB in the first round.  And if you get one in the first round you better plan on getting a good line and run game if you want him to make the transformation into that franchise quarterback.

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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But when are we going to grow one of our own?

In 2006 when the Chiefs drafted Brodie Croyle who I’d argue is one of the better backups in football. Chiefs don’t have the luxury to take a QB in the middle rounds as there is too many holes to fill, and QB isn’t one of those holes. If Cassel struggles again in 2010 (and assuming there is football in 2011), then I’d say a QB needs to be drafted.

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 10:20 AM CST reply actions  

I agree with you here Craig

But I think the problem is all the juniors coming out this year to try to beat the rookie wage scale deals and with it being uncapped there might possibly be someone thinking about getting big big big big big big $$$$$$$$$$$.

My problem with that logic though, is the Chiefs may have an opportunity here to get that QBotF with their current draft position, and who will be there next year on the level of Bradford or Clausen? I don’t know these things, more rhetorical than anything. But the strength of this years draft seems to be eclipsing what next year will be with all of the underclassmen that have declared.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 10:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Pretty tempting to get one this year

But not wise at all. That would be an Al Davis move.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 9, 2010 10:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Why do you say that?

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

Well

All kinds of good QB declared and we could easily dump a 1st round pick on one and have an awesome young QB BUT we already have Cassel and so many other needs.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 9, 2010 11:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Saying it would be an Al Davis move

is a little overkill I think.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 11:12 AM CST up reply actions  

When I think of an "Al Davis" move

I think of drafting because of a 40 time (DHB)
I think of drafting because of a big arm (Jamarcus)
Signing Free agents because of what they once were (Javon Walker)

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

Exactly

I don’t believe Pioli and/or Haley are going to buy into any hype that because a guy can chuck a ball 70 yards he’s perfect for this team. So calling it an Al move seems pretty overkill.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 11:22 AM CST up reply actions  

But to clarify

I don’t think they’ll be drafting a QB either :)

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Drafting a QB in the top 5 after we just inked one for 60 mil

And really didn’t get a good showing of him due to poor OLine play…

Might be something Al Davis would do.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius

by ArrowSpread on Feb 9, 2010 11:41 AM CST up reply actions  

But only 30 of that is gauranteed

the cost to franchise him for 2 years would have been only slightly less than that…

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Not so much concentrating on the money...

Just sayin, we JUST signed him to a long term deal.

It’s no stretch to say it would be very Al Davis-like to draft a QB in top 5 one season removed from making a franchise-type QB signing.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius

by ArrowSpread on Feb 9, 2010 12:15 PM CST up reply actions  

And I'm saying that the contract was done

to secure him in the event of a Tom Brady-esque breakout in play for only slightly more than he would have cost to franchise for 2 seasons. It IS about the money, and the Chiefs won’t be out much, if anything if they were to play Cassel for two or more seasons and then release him in preference of something better.

And really, it’s about getting better at every position.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I had a thougth about the contract.

I’d imagine they honestly didn’t expect a huge year out of Cassel this year. With things as they were, especially after the Gailey firing (which I realize came after the contract), he had a lot stacked up against him. Just surviving behind out line was an accomplishment the first half of the year.

This way, they paid him somewhat less than the franchise tag, while figuring out what the heck to do. In the meantime, we developed a running game (Thank God), established the Zone Blocking Scheme, and the overall offensive style prepped for Charlie Weis and this year.

Now, if he falls apart this year or the next it could be a different story. But they got their guy and did their best.

by Archyrr on Feb 9, 2010 12:55 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not disagreeing with that in the slightest

My thought is, if Cassel turns out to be better than average, he’s here for 5 more years so great!

If he’s average at best, then you can cut him after year two and not be out a whole lot because that’s what it would have taken to franchise him anyway. Unfortunately, you don’t want to pay a backup QB $60 million, so he’d have to be cut, or have his contract redone, I suppose. Either way, I think it was the right move.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm in total agreement there Saint.

Not sure where it came across that I didn’t. Sorry about that.

by Archyrr on Feb 9, 2010 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

No that was my bad

I’m the retart

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I believe you are missing my point

I wouldn’t be ok with drafting a QB at #5 for the simple fact that we are one year removed from signing QB in with expectations that he’s our QBotF. We haven’t even seen what he’s capable of in our system with some weapons around him and some continuity.

That makes absolutely no sense. That’s some shit Al Davis would do.

I believe that’s what this discussion is about, right?

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius

by ArrowSpread on Feb 9, 2010 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think it's going to happen

and I don’t think Cassel did a particularly terrible job either. However, I think if they see a guy they think will take this team to levels beyond what Cassel will and they want to draft him I say go for it …

because

you don’t want to be in this position to draft people any longer for one. Two, in the future you’re going to have to pay out the ass to get one of those top spots. And finally, I’m a firm believer of striking while the iron is hot so you’re not kicking yourself in the ass later.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Now we're on the same page

I don’t think it would happen either.

As for the drafting in the top 5, whether you buy now or buy later, you’re going to pay out of the ass regardless. I just think it would be a boneheaded idea to do it this year for the simple fact that for right now — for the 2010-2011 season — we have our Quarterback.

As Matt said, we’ve many more holes to fill and it wouldn’t be a sound personnel decision to waste that #5 pick on a position that we’ve already potentially filled long-term.

We’ve yet to see how that has panned out. But next year, if Cassel continues to struggle, then drafting a QB in the 1st round seems much more reasonable.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius

by ArrowSpread on Feb 9, 2010 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

you’re going to pay out of the ass regardless

But when you already hold the position, you’re going to pay probably half as much ;)

But yeah, I think the chances of them taking a QB prior to round 4 or later (if at all for that matter) are pretty damned slim to none.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Much in the way that he signed D'Angelo Hall for something like 70 mil..

Only to send him packing halfway through the season.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius

by ArrowSpread on Feb 9, 2010 11:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Next year

Jake Locker is supposed to be the real deal as well as I believe Ryan Mallet is projected to be a top 10 pick.
I believe I just attempted to answer a rhetorical question.

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

Good!

I don’t know a whole lot about guys that aren’t coming out this year… and I don’t know about many of the guys that DID declare… So really it was a question without expecting any kind of answer. Too many schools to track and me with just the one NCAA team, NFL team, and brain. Not enough caring to go around

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

but next year

we will be drafting in the lower half of the draft

Air Cassel - approved for takeoff

Always in motion is the future.
-- Yoda

by kabrink on Feb 9, 2010 1:58 PM CST up reply actions  

and - no

I’m not advocating taking a QB this year at all.

Air Cassel - approved for takeoff

Always in motion is the future.
-- Yoda

by kabrink on Feb 9, 2010 1:58 PM CST up reply actions  

I am a fan of Croyle...

I just wish he wasn’t so injury prone.

by SFLChief on Feb 9, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think one should be taken with current picks...

That doesn’t mean if there is one that Pioli still likes in the later rounds he shouldn’t trade back in and grab one. I agree too many holes to fill but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the chiefs trade back into one of the later rounds.

by SDChiefsFan on Feb 9, 2010 11:07 AM CST reply actions  

No tis, not the answer. NOTE, we lead the league in drops.

Now lets see what he does this year with a full season of Dwayne Bowe, A full season of Chris Chambers, no Bradley, less Bobby Wade, possilby Anquan Boldin or a 2nd rd slot WR, and a full season of Jamaal Charles getting the ball when it is 3 & 4 or less. And a full season of knowing he can hand the ball off, every 2 of 3 downs

by JC25FoMVP on Feb 9, 2010 11:30 AM CST reply actions  

Stability Please!

I cant watch another year of musical chairs with the waiver wire

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I cant

I can’t watch another year of drops

"Sure, luck means a lot in football. Not having a good quarterback is bad luck."

-Don Shula

by Aero on Feb 9, 2010 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Probably not post specific,

but I predict Sam Young, from Notre dame, being a guy the Chiefs take a flier on. A little light at 305 for a right tackle, his senior year soured what would have been starting out as a top 20 pick.

by tenacious rdc on Feb 9, 2010 12:50 PM CST reply actions  

Hope Not

Wasn’t hugely impressed when I saw him play for ND a few times. As I recall, several scouting reports from the Senior Bowl were not good. Matt Bunting at NationalFootballPost has his OT survey out today, has Sam Young ranked 17th of all the draft-eligible tackles, just above free agent grade. Also, I think KC needs more immediate help for the O-line in the interior, guards and center, not another tackle right now. Free agent would be OK with me, but not using up one of the Chiefs’ 5th round picks.

by Wheatboy74 on Feb 9, 2010 2:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Pike or Robinson is the answer

have them being coached under Weis and learn behind cassel for 3-4 years..

by Kcbiggyblue on Feb 9, 2010 12:51 PM CST reply actions  

Robinson yes but Pike no.

Something bothers me about Pike, I haven’t figured it out yet but I don’t like what I see when I watch him. Pike’s backup, Callaros(sp?) is a stud though and WILL be a big name in the draft in a few years.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes for Robinson

If we could pick him up in the late rounds, it would be worth it. I’m gonna guess he will probably go in the 2-3rd range though. This team has too many other needs to address to go for a QB that early in the draft.

by chiefn25 on Feb 9, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions  

No chance it happens. None. With a rookie salary cap looming, a good businessman would wait.

There will plenty of other unproven young QB’s waiting for a shot. They’ll be a lot more motivated when they have to actually earn a paycheck instead of showing up in diapers with their wallets open.

We NEED to draft a franchise QB. Just not this year. Cassel might as well hang while we get up and running. Then he can’t hide anymore. It will be his show and a good team of supporters will be there to help him. If he succeeds or fails, it does not matter. He’s not a young guy. He’s not a franchiser. He’s a plug.

Franchise QB’s start out of college and grow with the team they are going to lead. Like Favre, Brees, Rivers and Petyon.

by krayfish on Feb 9, 2010 12:54 PM CST reply actions  

Great observation!

With a rookie salary cap looming why would ANY top 5 team draft a qb? Interesting. I’m sure we’re not the only geniuses having this conversation too. I bet Rams pass on qb and snag one in the 2nd round. Colt? Pike?

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Favre grew with the packers?

or the Jets? Or the Vikings? Didn’t Atlanta draft him? :)

And that Brees guy… He was pretty alright when he was drafted in ’01 by the Chargers.

I’ve heard that the rookie wage scale could be implemented this year.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

favre grew up with the packers. Brees got injured and traded. He's been with the saints ever since

favre went to the jets vikings after he was already a polished leader. Not a valid comparison. Peyton of course has known his team and the scheme for so long that he can do it in his sleep.

My point is simple. A young QB is going to do better once he gets with the team he is intended to lead and then grows in that teams system. Their way of “thinking”. Familiarity. But why would we jump on a high draft pick for a QB now when we would have to pay them ungodly amounts of money before they even take a snap in the NFL, when we could just wait until next year and draft one cheap?

by krayfish on Feb 10, 2010 7:45 AM CST up reply actions  

krayfish

50% of the 4 QB’s you listed were traded by the teams that drafted them, and THEN grew with a different team and became the leaders.

Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl

by PVChiefsfan on Feb 9, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

That was my point

:) Thank you I need to quit eating and typing. I’m getting distracted by subway.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Are you including

Rivers being traded from the Giants?

by Bra on Feb 9, 2010 1:27 PM CST up reply actions  

That was a draft day trade though

and the Chargers took the other crappy QB named Manning… not sure if that one really counts or not.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

exactly. It's not like they played with any one team that drafted them for 3 years and THEN

got traded. The most successful QB’s are the one’s in general who end up with a team soon after the draft that they end up staying with. Whether it be the same team that drafted them or another team shortly there after. The point being familiarity. The more time with one team, the more comfortable you become. Just like anything else.

by krayfish on Feb 10, 2010 7:49 AM CST up reply actions  

No, because he never actually practiced or played as a Giant

Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl

by PVChiefsfan on Feb 9, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

doesn't matter who drafted them. They didn't get traded 5 years into their nfl careers.

they got traded right away and ended up with the teams they are still currently Qb’s for. They have grown into the system with the teams they now lead. They have all been there for quite some time now. You draft a young QB and you raise them.

by krayfish on Feb 10, 2010 7:47 AM CST up reply actions  

is Steve Young

a franchise QB? I say so.

Air Cassel - approved for takeoff

Always in motion is the future.
-- Yoda

by kabrink on Feb 9, 2010 2:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure...

Mayock says there isnt a top 10 qb in the draft. One of the weakest qb draft pools he’s seen in a while. Bradford and Clausen will get love because teams need a qb. Even tebow may get drafted too early. So, I’d stay away this yr. But keep our eyes open for 4-6 rounder. While Weis is here we have to get some young guys in here cheap and groom them. We have to upgrade wr and te and o-line before we judge these qb’s too. They’ve all crumbled since Roaf and Shields left. Trent, Brodie, Huard, Thiggy, cassel. These guys have been running for their lives. We’ve drafted 1 starter since their departures-Branden Albert. Waters will be gone soon too.

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 12:54 PM CST reply actions  

Atlanta did draft him but ...

He grew in GB under Holmgren. Not sure he even played in Atlanta that first yr.

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 12:58 PM CST reply actions  

He played in two games

attempted 4 passes, completed zero of them (unless you count the two he completed to players on the other team) and was sacked once for 11 yards, for the fantastic QB rating of 0.0

Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl

by PVChiefsfan on Feb 9, 2010 1:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow

I can’t believe they didn’t keep him.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Ya totally

He really turned out to be a shitty QB

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 4:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Brees was...

coming off that shoulder injury so SD was not willin gto take the gamble of paying him. Big bucks.

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 12:59 PM CST reply actions  

No SD discarded him when he hurt his shoulder....

….If I remember correctly, I believe the Chargers franchised Brees that last year because he was playing really really well and they didn’t know if they wanted to give Rivers the team when Brees was playing at such a high level. Shoulder injury made the decision for them and they let him walk. Then no one wanted Drew except the Dolphins and the Saints and Brees chose the Saints and Sean Payton….. good choice.

At least that is the way I remember it.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

The Chargers offered him

5 year $50 million deal, he declined and went with the Saints for a 6 year, $60 million dollar deal.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Really? I must have had that all wrong I guess.... My bad.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 2:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I hadn't heard that either.

It’s interesting. Of course, I think I’d rather play for the Saints too. Though I don’t know if I could live in the city though. Nothing against New Orleans, I just don’t like the idea of living on the coast below sea level.

by Archyrr on Feb 9, 2010 2:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah

after I said something about him I looked it up… I was surprised too. I thought the Chargers just parted ways with him because I remember actually liking him even when he was there. Thought he was a stand up guy and I can’t stand that doucheriver Rivers.

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 2:57 PM CST up reply actions  

But yes,

Those are two great 2nd round draft picks. Who would qualify as potential guys this yr? Not sure. I’d take Snead or LeFevour in rds 4-6. Bgi kids, good arms, had decent yr (although Ole Miss was the worst preseason top 25 team prediction ever!) and they would nt be much of a risk in those late rds. We have three 5ths so…my money goes on qb in the 5th. 5a.

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 1:06 PM CST reply actions  

I don't

think we take a QB in this years draft as some of the guys said above. Let’s take some o-line and defense so we can protect Cassell and slow down other teams from scoring so we aren’t playing from behind all the time, let’s see what Matt can do in a better situation. Croyle is a pretty good backup. If he doesn’t produce, next year or the year after we take a qb when we don’t have as many critical holes to fill

by RamX21 on Feb 9, 2010 1:06 PM CST reply actions  

Interesting though...

…some qb’s get drafted and get to play immediately (within the first year and a half). But many 2nd-5th round qb’s are drafted that late as insurance or luxury. Brady for example. Othere recent qb’s who were good out of college or atleast had that potential: Charlie Whitehurst, Kolb, Kellen Clemens. yet these guys just don tget opportunity to play becasue they just wont beat out the starter and get #reps at practice. Yet, they are probably good qb’s. Typically a first rounder is EXPECTED to play while the late rounds are not. Injuries or trades have to occur

Mr J
KC Chiefs Fan

by Mr J on Feb 9, 2010 1:14 PM CST reply actions  

How can you judge Kolb so far?

He did well in limited action this past year, but he sits behind McNabb.

by Boots 58 on Feb 9, 2010 1:17 PM CST reply actions  

But he's so good

he’s almost won a game

So full of sh*t that toilet bowls have to wipe.

by IISaiNtII on Feb 9, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Personally

I want Daryll Clark but if I lose the bias I want Jevan Snead. His arm is probably better than Croyles. He is bigger than Croyle. He has pretty decent mobility. Had a down year and lots of interceptions so he will drop in the draft.

He is not ready to man a franchise just yet but has all the physical tools.

I think if we could land him with one if our 5th round picks we could groom him under Weis and Haley and he could potentially become our starter in a few years.

Plus he would be major competition to Croyle for first backup spot.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 9, 2010 1:40 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Hey Matty...

…I watched the skills comp the other day and I really wasn’t impressed with Snead. Robinson looked GREAT in almost all the drills and LeFevour looked good too. I would almost rather take one of those two as a project QB over Snead.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 2:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah I was though.

I was also impressed with Dez Bryant and Jordan Shipley….. Ship has GREAT hands!

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 9, 2010 3:39 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Yep Dez looks to be the real deal and I was VERY impressed with Shipley....

….I have now changed my “Tate in the 2nd round” to “Shipley in the 2nd” because hw is gonna be a good one. Some might think he is a reach in the 2nd but I don’t, the dude can straight catch the rock.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 4:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree here with BigRed

Wasn’t terribly impressed with Snead, had to wonder if he has some kind of subtle injury or something. I expected Snead to have by far the most powerful arm, but that wasn’t how the competition turned out.

by Wheatboy74 on Feb 9, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

His arm was the strongest

Just not as accurate. IMO he has more upside than the other guys. He was barely flinging the ball and it was zipping with great velocity. His release is so freaking quick….that’s another great asset.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 9, 2010 3:37 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Sounds like JaMarcus Russell there Matt. =O

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Maybe

But what if Russel was drafted later and given more time to develop his skills….maybe it turns out better….

Snead won’t come in like Russel with all the pressure and expectations. Big difference.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 9, 2010 8:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Bad is bad and Russell is plain bad.

Pressure and expectations are overrated but I don’t think Snead is as bad off as Russell because I think Jevan posses the work ethic (and brains) to be an NFL QB and Russell doesn’t. THAT is the big difference.

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 8:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Your probably right...

Dumb is dumb and Russel is dumb

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Feb 10, 2010 8:42 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Trade one of our 5th round picks

to Pittsburgh for Dennis Dixon!

I'd rather die on my feet than be living on my knees

by ArrowDread on Feb 9, 2010 1:55 PM CST reply actions  

Thanks for the post, B

Nicely done, and agrees well with what I’ve read from other sources looking at a longer time line, i.e., back to before 2000. It’s difficult to develop a top-flight passing attack, difficult to build the support needed in the O-line, and the odds fall off pretty severely of getting that ‘franchise’ guy as you get out of the first round and into the middle range of round 2.

by Wheatboy74 on Feb 9, 2010 2:27 PM CST reply actions  

Well there is already rumors

about Weiss wanting to bring Quinn in to KC…that wouldn’t be bad competition for quarterback…at worst it’ll push Cassel to excel

http://cle.scout.com/a.z?s=149&p=2&c=944929&ssf=1&RequestedURL=http%3a%2f%2fcle.scout.com%2f2%2f944929.html

If you will it dude....It is no dream - Jeffery Lebowski

by ChiefsnotChefs on Feb 9, 2010 2:29 PM CST reply actions  

You missed Matt Shaub

You misspelled his name as Matt Shaulz under third round.
I think we can all agree he’s much better than the two green bars you gave him.

by NW on Feb 9, 2010 3:22 PM CST reply actions  

Good catch.

He needs some red bars for sure!

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 4:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Jesse Palmer also needs some more bars

For his wonderful appearance on ABC’s “The Bachelor”

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 4:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Wait, craig isn't canadian for jesse is it?

The question is not how far. The question is, do you possess the constitution, the depth of faith, to go as far is as needed?

by BigRedChief on Feb 9, 2010 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Thank you NW

I will correct it.

Bewsaf

by Bewsaf on Feb 9, 2010 5:13 PM CST up reply actions  

no problem man

you do great work, I’m a big fan!
Keep it up

by NW on Feb 9, 2010 5:38 PM CST up reply actions  

i say draft

tebow in the 5 round

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule reseident broncos fan for ap lol denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos fan for stanpleid bule

by j-man on Feb 9, 2010 7:14 PM CST reply actions  

Reach

Vince Young was a first rounder
Pat White was a 2nd rounder
Tebow should be drafted in the 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000th round

"I've only been in love with a beer bottle and a mirror" - Sid Vicious.

by craig in calgary on Feb 9, 2010 7:20 PM CST up reply actions  

craig

u shouild be tebow agant

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule reseident broncos fan for ap lol denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos fan for stanpleid bule

by j-man on Feb 9, 2010 7:27 PM CST reply actions  

u aqnd matt

okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule reseident broncos fan for ap lol denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos fan for stanpleid bule

by j-man on Feb 9, 2010 7:27 PM CST reply actions  

Dan Lafevour from Central Michigan

would be a good project QB. I don’t know if they should be taking a QB, but if he is sitting there in the 6th or 7th, I wouldn’t be upset if they took him.

Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.

by royaldaddy on Feb 9, 2010 11:54 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

My take is simple. According to all the experts (if you can trust them), this years draft is a defensive

dream come true. A melting pot of talent. I think you go defense this year. Next year with a rookie salary cap, you go after that receiver/QB combo. Let them grow up together in KC. Spend less money. Less risk involved. If they don’t work out. Oh well.

by krayfish on Feb 10, 2010 7:52 AM CST reply actions  

Bews - very excellent AS ALWAYS stats, analysis and wicked cool graphs

… to answer the question you posed in the title: ummmmmmmmmmmmm …

"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
Whilock Rocks!
hi, Mo!
5 minutes!!!

by upamtn on Feb 10, 2010 2:27 PM CST reply actions  

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