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How Should The Chiefs Draft in a Spacing League?

Change or die. That's the pressure on every system, every organization, every culture over time. That's certainly true in the NFL where teams must adapt to new schemes, new methods, new levels of athletic ability. Even if a team has a longtime coach or front office in place, as trends ebb and flow in today's NFL, so must their approach. And in this new "spacing league," it's vital for teams to adjust.

Spacing league? That's the term Mike Smith uses to describe the NFL at this stage, and it's an accurate assessment. In NFL history, quarterbacks have thrown for 4,000 yards or more a total of 84 times. Ten of those came last season. That's 12% of the sum total of decades of passing stats coming in just one season. If you slide the measure back two seasons to 2007, the number jumps to 23. In other words, the NFL has quickly become a passing -- or spacing -- league.

What does this mean? This means that even if a team doesn't hit their target in the end zone, it's common to at least move the chains several times. Defenses, then, must adjust to an offenses ability to move the ball seemingly at will at moments. Teams are going to get their yards, so it's a matter of stopping them in time before they score. This makes all the difference for the types of players you have to draft.

Think of the AFC West. The Raiders, as bumbling as their personnel moves are, go for speed each and every year. The Chargers have perhaps the NFL's greatest passing attack. Denver's abandoned the mammoth running game of year's past for more of Head Coach Josh McDaniels' offensive prowess. Simply put: the AFC West is a strong example of the overall movement in the NFL. The Chiefs, therefore, must approach this off-season with this in mind.

More analysis after the jump:

Star-divide

"I think [the league] has becoming a spacing game for sure," says Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith. "You're not seeing a whole lot of two back running sets. There's more single back sets. It is a quarterback's league. I think you saw more 300 yard passing games as well, but of course that makes sense with the number of 4,000 yard passers. I've always said you have to be able to run the ball and even though the Indianapolis Colts played in the Super Bowl and were number 32 in the league in rushing, I don't know if that's an anomaly, but if you look through the playoffs, you'll find they ran the ball very effectively."

"I really believe that at the core of it, you still have to able to run the football and stop the run," he continues. "But I do know this: the formations and what offensive coordinators are doing is they are making it very difficult, because you have to defend the entire 53-and-a-third yards when they put their formations together."

When it comes to approaching the draft differently, Smith notes that the spacing league affects everything. "I really think it affects the way you put your football team together. When you're talking about a spacing offense, you've got to be able to have guys that will match up. When people are putting three receivers and they have a running back that 'run routes just like a receiver,' you have four receivers and you have to be able to match up."

One of the changes could possibly be the switch to more linebacker/safety types. "I think the sub-linebacker position is something that's evolving and will continue to evolve. Where you normally have had linebacker types playing that, I think you'll see more safeties and bigger corners play on those downs. I think you'll see much more six and even seven defensive back defensive schemes to match up with the skill players and the level of skill that the offenses are able to put on the field.'

You see this with Taylor Mays this year. He's getting hit hard this off-season by critics of his play at the straight safety position, but perhaps his all-out style, tackling ability and strong build is exactly what's needed in the NFL of tomorrow. Think of Carolina LB Thomas Davis and you begin to get an idea.

Another difference is stamina. If defenses can expect to stay on the field for longer periods at a time, the Chiefs need to make sure they either have plenty of depth -- which is hardly the case on a young, rebuilding team like KC -- or else the players that are on the field need to have the wind to keep up sideline to sideline. Linebackers must pursue and not need a breather. Defensive linemen must use their burst again and again. And even if a guy provides a great pass rush, it might not be worth taking him if he can't stay on the field to stop the run as well. The Chiefs have precious few picks to add players and to get a guy who can only play one or two downs with an early pick just doesn't make sense.

The NFL is, indeed, a spacing league. More and more quarterbacks will get their yards, but that doesn't mean they have to score. But what it does mean is that defenses need to be able to play at a high level for multiple downs at a time.

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Seems like this idea of a passing league would lean towards the chiefs taking Haden.

Carr would be a great Nickel but he was exposed a bit as a #2 corner. Haden and Flowers would be a great set of shutdown corners with Carr in the Nickel i like it. Get our NT in the second and Micah Johnson in the 3rd maybe Burnett to play safety.

Of course it could make a strong case for drafting Bryant too as much i wouldn’t like that idea.

The first 3 picks of the draft will be defense. Pioli loves him some defense.

by ChiefsfanJon on Feb 27, 2010 10:03 AM CST reply actions  

Bryant

I disagree on Bryant – he might be the most highly touted WR in this draft, but people are reporting that he has an attitude problem. I just don’t think that he fits the right 53…not Pioli material. That being said, I do agree with everything else you said. Berry (who can play anywhere in the D backfield) or Haden would be the potential picks with this mindset. I would be EXTREMELY happy with either. My best case scenario…

draft Berry #5 overall…trade back into the first round and take Haden around #10-15.

Imagine that defensive backfield – Haden, Flowers (Carr – Nickel)….Berry, Page (Brown to spell Page). We would be set for years to come, and fully equiped to the faster WR-driven league. If we still have a 2nd round pick, I would look at WR or NT.

If everyone worked as hard as me, I would be out of a job.

-Steve Nash

by Red Shadow on Feb 27, 2010 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

Haden doesn't get past the Browns unless a QB or Berry is sitting there.

The first 3 picks of the draft will be defense. Pioli loves him some defense.

by ChiefsfanJon on Feb 27, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Not sure about Bryant.

While i don’t think this is the time for KC to think WR in the 1st, the college system is crazy enough that being tagged as an attitude problem at that level doesn’t necessarily mean that much (to me).

by hmills110 on Feb 27, 2010 10:32 AM CST up reply actions  

I watched his interview and i think he seemed fine

Not sure if he was coached to appear that way but his interview just made him seem like a WR in the NFL. They all want to get paid and they all want the ball just how it is. Many have Bryant rated as the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson and rightfully so he makes great cuts, is strong enough to get off the line easily, has good acceleration to take the ball to the house he just lacks that 4.35 speed to get behind defenders.

The first 3 picks of the draft will be defense. Pioli loves him some defense.

by ChiefsfanJon on Feb 27, 2010 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes. The total package at WR can be a game-changer. But you don't want him languishing on a crap team,

like Randy Moss did in Chokeland, for instance. Nevertheless, if KC trades down and things fall right, receivers like Bryant can win championships.

by hmills110 on Feb 27, 2010 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

The time proven method for beating "spacing" teams

is to get big physical players and hit them in the mouth.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KCSatchmo on Feb 27, 2010 10:17 AM CST reply actions  

I agree i love smashmouth football.

I love that Pioli builds from the lines and although i was thoroughly against Okung for a long time if he slides to us i think we have to take him. His arm reach and arm strength along with his technique just shows a lot of upside and he’s already very good.

The first 3 picks of the draft will be defense. Pioli loves him some defense.

by ChiefsfanJon on Feb 27, 2010 10:26 AM CST up reply actions  

We think alike

I see from your post above that we’re among the few around here who see the value Haden would have for us. I’d rather grab the best LT in the draft, but Haden is a very acceptable fall back position imo. What he did to Julio Jones was impressive as hell.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KCSatchmo on Feb 27, 2010 10:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Indeed Satch you are one of the people when i see a comment i always stop to see what it says haha

As much as i love Berry, Haden has way more value. Safety is a bigger need but shut down corners are much rarer than safeties and this draft is very deep at safety. I mean Stuckey in the 4th round he would be a 2nd rounder in most years.

The first 3 picks of the draft will be defense. Pioli loves him some defense.

by ChiefsfanJon on Feb 27, 2010 10:34 AM CST up reply actions  

I'll take Haden all day long

shut-down corners are so much more valuable now than 10 years ago

by reedeasy on Feb 27, 2010 10:42 AM CST up reply actions  

no we don't and we would be stupid to do so

berry, mcclain, even haden will have a much, much bigger impact on our team then okung could ever dream of having

Seriously mates, when have I ever been sarcastic?

Oh and in case you were wondering, that hug offer is still there when you are ready UC :p

by Leaf on Feb 27, 2010 1:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Great points

And I completely agree…the Chiefs gotta adapt to what the rest of the league is doing.

Likewise, the Chiefs defense has to understand the offensive trends in the NFL.

by Joel Thorman on Feb 27, 2010 10:36 AM CST reply actions  

I'd argue that D's are staying on the field so long because they CAN'T match up.

I’d argue that the sub-linebacker trend is a quick fix by teams that are unable to build their trenches and secondaries properly. This leaves them wishing they had LBs who could play S and then they need S who can play LB, because they’re undersized. Reaching for ’tweeners to bulk up and play DE in the 4-3 is another, related problem.

We’ll see if Pioli goes aggressively after coverage players. 3-4 or 4-3, the need for a huge DT in the middle is also related to this trend toward going “quick” in the d-backfield.

I don’t want to see ‘tweener LB/S types. I want to see more coverage and ball skills in-depth in the secondary, so when you DO go nickel or dime, you can still be big and dominating up front. This ’tweener shit in the LB/S corps can sometimes mask a poorly-built D, but it doesn’t cure it, imo.

I think the whole point of this article is the point that hasn’t been made: Teams aren’t finding the right people to play defense, and they’re making tons of compromises in the back 7 players, because they do a poor job of team-building in the first place.

by hmills110 on Feb 27, 2010 12:26 PM CST reply actions  

If the Chiefs get a real 3-4 2 gap NT in FA or later rounds then the defensive position that makes the most sense from a money aspect really is CB. Corners of Haden’s skill level are rare not even considering how often a team should get a fifth round pick. I know people want McClain and I even presented a mock with him as the first KC pick but I have changed my mind because it is position over-drafting which the Chiefs simply cannot afford to do. I’d rather have a top corner making that money than a top linebacker. You can get adequate production from ILBs with less talent and chose them from a bigger source pool. It doesn’t hurt your defense that much as long as you have a good NT. CB is a true skill position and influence the defense in special ways. Does KC need another good corner?…Yes, you should always look to upgrade. Is the upgrade necessary?…No, but as long as you address needs in later rounds and FA then what does it matter?

by greatestshowonscreen on Feb 27, 2010 3:23 PM CST reply actions  

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