Probability & the Chiefs' Needs

A Strategic Analysis of the Chief’s Draft Prospectus: NOT a MOCK!

I want to thank Larry for setting the bar so high for Fan Posts. Dude, you do it right! After spending two weeks reading various fan posts on what our team ought to do, or what we want our team to do, on draft day, I decided to, first, try to analyze our team’s needs as accurately as I could, and second, analyze who might be available when the Chiefs select, and meets the needs of the team. I am making certain assumptions. First, I’m assuming Chambers doesn’t sign a contract with the Chiefs. I’m assuming Vrabel decides to end his career with a contender. I’m assuming neither Dansby nor Peppers will be wearing a Chiefs’ jersey next season. I’ve come to the conclusion we can live with DJ & Belcher at inside LB, and Albert will be a serviceable LT for the next decade. As I view the team, our priority needs are; WR, NT (we spent the second half of last season with only one ineffectual body at the position), OLB (Vrabel gone, & only Studebaker & Hali with any experience), S (Chad Brown experiment less than successful), and two interior OL. If my fingers don’t deceive me, that’s six players on the high-priority list. We have 5 picks in the top 4 rounds.

In analyzing draft prospects, I took a two step approach. First, using two value boards, “NFL Draft Scout” and “WalterFootball”, I listed the top wide receivers, nose tackles, safeties, interior OL, and 3-4 OLBs in each list’s top 50 players (R.Jones wasn’t on WalterFootball’s list) in hierarchical order, and then compared these player’s ranking with their positions on three mock drafts. I choose “WalterFootball”, “”, and “” (the last had several errors). I choose these Mocks because each had at least 3 rounds. I then hypothesized which player(s) would be available with each of our draft choices in rounds 1-4.

Player Name                               Rank WalterFootball              Rank NFL Draft Scout

E. Berry S Tenn                                        1                                                 2

D. Bryant WR OK St.                             12                                                 8

T. Mays S USC                                      43                                               13

Iupati G Idaho                                       32                                                15

G. Tate WR ND                                    30                                                 16

E. Thomas S TX                                  16                                                 19

S. Kindle OLB TX                                34                                                  22

Pierre-Paul OLB USF                        10                                                  25

M. Pouncey G Fla                               28                                                  30

B. LaFell WR LSU                              26                                                  34

Mt. Cody NT Ala                                  47                                                  46

D. Williams WR USC                        11                                                  49

A. Benn WR IL                                    20                                                   57

R. Jones S GA                             not in top 50                                      61

C. Jones S LSU                                38                                                   59

N. Allen S-CB S.Fla                          29                                                   56

J. Hughes OLB TCU                        24                                                   53



Mock Analysis

Player Name                                                   #NewNFLDraft         #WalterFootball

E. Berry                                                                      # 6 Sea                       # 6 Sea                              # 3 TB

D. Bryant                                                                    # 14 Sea                    # 11 Denver                      # 12 Mia

T. Mays                                                                      # 18 Pitt                      # 21 Cin                             # 24 Phil

Iupati                                                                         # 31 Indy                     # 27 Dallas                       # 18 Pitt

G. Tate                                                                     # 34 Det                       # 33 St. l.                           # 25 Balt

E. Thomas                                                              # 20 Hou                     # 20 Hou                           # 13 SF

S. Kindle                                                                 # 38 Sea                      # 29 NYJ                           # 36 Chiefs

Pierre-Paul                                                             not listed                    # 10 Jax                             # 17 TN

M. Pouncey                                                            # 50 Pitt                        # 31 Indy                           # 37 Wash

B. LaFell                                                                 # 39 Clev                     # 25 Balt                            # 48 NE

Mt. Cody                                                                 # 29 Minn                    # 36 Chiefs                        # 42 NE

D. Williams                                                           # 21 Cin                      # 44 NE                               # 47 Car

A. Benn                                                                  # 35 TB                       # 35 TB                                # 61 NYJ

R. Jones                                                               # 58 NE                       # 90 Dallas                         # 59 Dallas

C. Jones                                                              # 71 Oak                      # 46 NYG                            # 51 Hou

N. Allen                                                                # 77 Denver                 # 38 Clev                            # 52 Pitt

J. Hughes                                                           # 40 Oak                      # 43 Mia                              # 43 Mia

From these two charts, we can deduce that:

1. Berry could well be available @ #5. IF not, this pick is problematical; picking

   a player on our priority list would not be a value pick, unless we took a LT, &

    moved Albert, so he could learn something new all over again this year (why?)

2. Tate will probably be off the board by #36. We’ll need to choose another WR.

3. Pouncy is “iffy” for the second round. Ducasse could be alternate.

4. Iupati apparently will be gone by the end of the 1st round.

5. Cody probably won’t last until our 2nd pick in the 2nd round. Thomas


6. Kindle or Hughes should be doable with our pick in the second round.

Realize, this is merely an exercise in probability. Use it as you will. Remember, there are other players who weren’t on either of these two value boards who could fit into our plans, such as NT Cam Thomas, & WR Jordan Shipley. We’re going to have to figure out how to fill our priorities.

NOTE: I apologize for the lack of formating. Site wouldn't take the chart I made on Spreadsheet,  so Iretyped charts on my wp doc; formatting didn't transfer when I copied doc.


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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