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Jamaal Charles Belongs In The NFL MVP Conversation

Touchdown totals. Yardage totals. This is how fantasy football tells us we should evaluate a running back. There is no consideration for how hard a player had to work to achieve those statistics. That's why Willie Roaf and Jonathan Ogden never won an MVP. That's why Shaun Alexander was an MVP, despite having an ultra-strong supporting cast to set the table for him.

And so, a player like Jamaal Charles really throws people for a loop. He's untraditional. He's not the Chiefs' full-time running back, he's not a touchdown machine, and he may not end up leading the league in rushing.

But let's put statistics aside for a moment. Here's a question I like to ask: of all the players up for MVP consideration, which players are the most irreplaceable? I'll dive into why Charles is in that mix after the jump.

Star-divide

For this piece, I want to focus on the top 5 MVP candidates Peter King highlighted in his most recent Monday Morning Quarterback. I have a tremendous amount of respect for King, so his list is a great place to start. In his most recent list, he talked about five players: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Drew Brees.

MVPs Win Games

The first criteria is that the MVP has to be a winner. Barring a truly exceptional case, putting up a great season for a losing team doesn't jive well with voters and it shouldn't. That excludes a lot of great players from the conversation, including  Arian Foster and potentially Philip Rivers.

MVPs Are Typically Quarterbacks

And rightfully so, I might add. Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, and Brees are all Quarterbacks. They hold the keys to their respective offenses, so when things go right, these are the guys who deserve the credit. However, there is usually a non-quarterback or two that slips into the conversation.

MVPs Are Full-Time Players That Score Touchdowns

This is where we need to step back for a second because Charles doesn't fit conveniently into this conventional mold.

Touchdowns are a short-sighted way to measure a player. The Chiefs aren't a conventional team. They don't prefer a style of play where they score 40 points per game. I am sure that Haley and Weis get a lot more excited about a 10-minute drive that leads to a touchdown than a touchdown drive that lasts less than one minute. As I've mentioned so many times this year, the Chiefs are at their best when they control the clock and win the time of possession game. 

So if Charles' job is to extend drives, shouldn't we care a lot more about his ability to get first downs? Here is an interesting statistic: Foster gets a first down on 29% of his carries and Jones-Drew on 26%. Charles is at 30%. That's good enough to put him in the top 5 of this category and better than the two RBs widely considered to be the best in 2010. What makes that statistic so remarkable is that he's not their primary short-yardage back. Excluding goal line carries, Charles has only touched the ball on 21 short-yardage situations (1st/2nd/3rd and <3 yards). It's a lot easier to get a first down on a 3rd and 1 than it is on a 1st and 10. In fact, over 90% of Foster's first downs were converted on a 3rd and short situation. Charles, on the other hand, doesn't even break the top 20 in this statistic. Some may read into this statistic and ask why Charles isn't a short yardage back. True, but think about how truly extraordinary those statistics are when analyzed in tandem. Those stats suggest that he is consistently put in situations where running for first downs is supposed to be very difficult, and yet he's among the best in the league at converting.

Charles also leads the league in big play rushes (>10 yards) and is second in yards per carry on 1st and 10 (7.1 yards per carry).Those carries not only move the chains, they also set up very makeable second or third downs. What these statistics clearly indicate is that Charles isn't just a guy who will peel off an 80 yard run and then run for 2 yards the next 10 attempts. This is a guy who consistently eeks out big play after big play after big play. He extends drives better than any running back in the league and helps assure that even if the Chiefs punt, they can limit the opposing offense's field position. For a team that is so dependent on clock management and winning the field position game, you simply cannot short-sell the importance of that contribution.

MVPs Are Important To Their Team

No matter how much you support Cassel or have throughout the year, the reality is that the Chiefs have won games this year by using the running game to set up the pass. I'm not in the room when opposing defensive coordinators devise gameplans, but I would have to imagine that the first two questions they ask are: 1) how do we stop the Chiefs' running game? 2) how do we stop the Chiefs' running game? 3) Oh, and by the way, their passing game is getting better too.

That means eight defenders in the box consistently, especially early in the season. So how do you stop a running back like Charles who averages 6+ yards per carry? Let me ask you this. How did basketball teams defend Shaq in his prime? They doubled up on him. How did defenses cover Randy Moss in their prime? They pulled all their safeties back, even if that left wide open space in front of them. And when you double up on Shaq, there's going to be a wide open guard somewhere who gets a look at an open three-pointer. Charles' effectiveness has given Cassel and the receivers a much easier path to the hoop (so to speak). There is nothing worse than giving extra help to stop a guy and still not being able to stop him. That's what Charles brings to the table for the Chiefs. Time and time again, defenses crowd the line to stop him and time and time again, he breaks off big plays.

That's the main reason Charles deserves MVP consideration. He is a player defenses load up to beat, even at the expense of lightening up their pass defense, and he beats them anyway. And not only does he beat defenses, he annihilates them. You hear a lot of talk about running backs finding a second gear--they find their holes and explode into them. All Charles has is a second gear. He doesn't have the luxury of picking a hole and bursting through it. Instead, he is a running back that has become successful at stopping and starting: Burst. Stop. Burst. Cut. Stop. Burst. He has avoided a lot of losses because of his maneuverability. I don't think many running backs would be able to replicate some of the gains Charles gets on a regular basis.

And what is the end result? A winning football team. That much is obvious. But he was also part of a rushing attack that carried the offense on its back as Matt Cassel inconsistently tried to find himself early on. And he has created a running system that sets the tone for the entire team. When the Chiefs run well, they extend drives, eat up clock, and keep the defense fresh. The entire team is better.

I wouldn't put Charles in the front of the MVP race. I would probably hand the MVP award to a quarterback like Tom Brady. But it's about time he become a part of the conversation. Few players this season have been more successful under such adverse circumstances as Charles has.

Comment 51 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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Peter King listing MJD ahead of Jamaal is quite short sighted

Sure MJD had a nice little run, but MVP isn’t supposed to be who was hottest in November/December and as a MJD fantasy owner, I can tell you he was terrible the first month or so. Jamaal and MJD have roughly the same amount of yards and TD’s but Jamaal has 80 fewer carries.

Really doesn’t matter because Giselle Brady already has it locked up.

by craig in calgary on Dec 8, 2010 11:09 AM CST reply actions  

You're right on both counts

JC has been way more consistent this year, not to mention efficient.

And Brady already has it barring a huge meltdown by NE.

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.

by MNchiefsfan on Dec 8, 2010 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

yes that did bother me...I have MJD and Charles on a fantasy team...charles has been consistent(glad I reached in all 4 drafts in the 2nd or 3rd...what a "reach")

but MJD almost buried my team early on….heck, he put me in fourth place basically because of the slow start…

Team Pioli/Haley. Decade of the Chiefs.
Team Colquitt

by SDChief on Dec 9, 2010 12:29 AM CST up reply actions  

The question is...

Will any running back win the MVP if he breaks the season rushing record when the NFL goes to 18 games per season.

by kcgiant06 on Dec 8, 2010 11:12 AM CST reply actions  

When Jesus comes back

,wait that’s the end of the world nvm

by ChiefWarPaint on Dec 8, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Tim Tebow?

Smile, its the second best things you can do with your lips!

by fleetmarine on Dec 8, 2010 11:52 AM CST up reply actions  

he doesnt just walk, he runs

Team Pioli/Haley. Decade of the Chiefs.
Team Colquitt

by SDChief on Dec 9, 2010 12:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Me too...

What would the Pats be without Brady? The Saints without Brees?

The QB is the most important Offensive player on the field. Period.

Chiefs will. But...will Cassel?

10 + wins in 2010. Chiefs SHOCK the NFL!!! Mark it down.

by Scott B. on Dec 8, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

the chiefs would be pretty bad without Cassel as well

I think Rogers should get it because the packers have no running game and he still wins.

by just a guy on Dec 8, 2010 11:49 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Open statements like QB is the most important offensive player

or most important overall player is useless without context. Tom Brady may be the most important player to his team, but is Brett Farvre? When the Chiefs were playing under Vermeil, arguments could have been made for either Priest Holmes or Willie Roaf being more important thant Trent Green. So on and so on.

by Pantherhare on Dec 8, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Michael Lewis pretty much eviscerated this argument in The Blind Side

Also, were Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson the most important players for their Superbowl-winning teams?

by Pantherhare on Dec 8, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions  

That'll happen the minute some other postion touches the ball as much as the QB

They have the most impact on the game, for better or worse. See Derek Andreson.

O'Callaghan: "What was the call?"
Cassel: "You made it work! That's all that matters! Who gives a (blank) what I called?"

Officially went from Cassel doubter to Cassel backer with that quote. Thank you Matt.

by mushin on Dec 8, 2010 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

So basically if a team is successful using the Wildcat on almost every play.

That is pretty much the only way to prevent the QB from touching the ball on every offensive play.

by misterbrain on Dec 8, 2010 1:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Casey Wiegmann for MVP!

Has more touches than even Matt Cassel!

I spilled spot remover on my dog... now he's gone.

by Tarkus on Dec 8, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Zing!!!!!!!

Winning begins with Attitude - Haley and Pioli will be winners in KC!

I'll forever be a Chiefs fan! Only God himself could take that away from me, but when I get to my great reward, I'll rejoin two bigger fans, my Mom and Dad.

by Lanier63 on Dec 8, 2010 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I would just like to see it handed to others

You can’t tell me last year C.J didn’t deserve it over Manning.

Ever seen the movie Green Street Hooligans? That's how I feel about my Chiefs.

by zyker on Dec 8, 2010 11:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Manning was in the playoffs, CJ wasn't

I don’t care if someone throws for 7,000 yards, 60 TD’s and 0 picks, if the team isn’t in the playoffs, they won’t win MVP….OPOY? Yes.

by craig in calgary on Dec 8, 2010 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

TRENT DILFER FOR MVP!

Ever seen the movie Green Street Hooligans? That's how I feel about my Chiefs.

by zyker on Dec 8, 2010 11:36 AM CST up reply actions  

Straw man

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.

by MNchiefsfan on Dec 8, 2010 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

totally true, you cant be an MVP of team that doesnt make the playoffs since the concept is...take him off the team and will they still make it?

its like Rivers

he was in the discussion

then SD lost and fell 2 games back…if they dont make it, and he breaks passing records, it doesnt matter in terms of mvp

Team Pioli/Haley. Decade of the Chiefs.
Team Colquitt

by SDChief on Dec 8, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Although

If anyone threw for 7k, 60 TDs and no picks, I’m going out on a limb and saying they went to the playoffs

by Cupadacoff on Dec 8, 2010 3:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Nice Post and rec'd

I dig the stats you pulled because it really shows just how incredible Charles has been this year. He served notice the last half of last season and opposing defenses have had ample time to figure out how to stop him and yet they have yet to really do so this year. It’s a shame that Moeaki had the dumb play Sunday because Jamaal had a TD. Which reminds me of the TD carry he had against Seattle. Seems he and Cassel were the only two Chiefs who actually knew what the play was, he got stuffed in the backfield and yet still found a way into the end zone. He gets my vote!

Just keep matriculatin' the ball down the field, boys.

by KCnDC on Dec 8, 2010 11:21 AM CST reply actions  

I would like to speculate that Charles will be in the MVP race NEXT year

Our rookies will be more experienced, the team will be better balanced and better off in general. There has been a lot of noise about Charles being on the MVP list this year. I think that gets him in the spotlight at the START of next season.

@RaiderHater86 on Twitter

by ExRoyalsFan on Dec 8, 2010 11:23 AM CST reply actions  

Maybe...

Assuming the Chiefs somehow gain some respect in the last part of this season.

Chiefs will. But...will Cassel?

10 + wins in 2010. Chiefs SHOCK the NFL!!! Mark it down.

by Scott B. on Dec 8, 2010 11:25 AM CST up reply actions  

I feel people outside of KC are starting to recognize what JC is doing

if we can lock up a spot in the playoffs the nation will be on watch to see how special he is. If we accidentally mess up and win a playoff game?? Then he’ll really be under the spotlight to showcase his skills.

@RaiderHater86 on Twitter

by ExRoyalsFan on Dec 8, 2010 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

Agree...he rumbles for a big game in first round playoff and they will start talking

And has stated, because of our two back system, he and Jones do not get much press.

by Turkeyleg on Dec 8, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions  

nfl n gives kc a LOT of love for leading the league in rushing, thats jones/charles...I think its also that jamaal is quiet

if he was a loudmouth, say….D-Jackson type doing goofy things and missing practices…then he would get far more press….which is SAD…

Team Pioli/Haley. Decade of the Chiefs.
Team Colquitt

by SDChief on Dec 8, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

quite frankly the td's arent there...and if the numbers arent eye popping in terms of TD's, its tough to win mvp as a RB.

I love J-Charles, but it wont be this year…as stated above by many…maybe in the future…if HE had gone on the TD run Bowe went on….WITH the yardage stats…then we have the combo for MVP votes….just saying…

Team Pioli/Haley. Decade of the Chiefs.
Team Colquitt

by SDChief on Dec 8, 2010 11:30 AM CST reply actions  

What if he averages over 6.0 YPC over 2.5 full season?

Half of last year, all of this year, all of next year.

Wouldn’t he have to get serious consideration for MVP for doing that?

@RaiderHater86 on Twitter

by ExRoyalsFan on Dec 8, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

IMO no

Team Pioli/Haley. Decade of the Chiefs.
Team Colquitt

by SDChief on Dec 8, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions  

KC's best chance for MVP this year is Matt Cassel

I’m not saying he should be, but if he can reach 3,500 yards, 30 TD’s and doesn’t throw anymore picks, he’ll be in the discussion if Chiefs slip into the 2 seed. Of course alot needs to happen, but that’s our best chance to have MVP discussions.

by craig in calgary on Dec 8, 2010 11:34 AM CST reply actions  

I'm sure Charles would rather be in Super Bowl discussions than MVP ones anyways

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." -Gandhi.

by Sudden on Dec 8, 2010 12:07 PM CST reply actions  

not relevant but

Does Brent favre’s news conference have to be on every week? Come on. I don’t think many people outside of chief fans know of jc anyway

by danmang on Dec 8, 2010 12:07 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

I hope he never has to see the number of carries

It would probably require to see him considered a candidate for MVP.

I’d rather he have seasons like this one for the next 6-7 years than have a couple huge seasons (where we lean on him too much) then nada (ala 2.7).

I love my wife, my kids, and the Chiefs. In that order. Except on game days.

by MNchiefsfan on Dec 8, 2010 12:16 PM CST reply actions  

Sorry Yall are wrong

Cassel for what he has done deserves consideration.

by popparuss581 on Dec 8, 2010 12:26 PM CST reply actions  

Certainly consideration.

He will get that, but no way he wins it.

"The best way to convince a fool that he is wrong is to let him have his way" Josh Billings
Kansas City Chiefs - 2020 Team of the Decade

by skunk420 on Dec 8, 2010 1:18 PM CST reply actions  

If he makes the top 10, it would be a win.

I spilled spot remover on my dog... now he's gone.

by Tarkus on Dec 8, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Cassel, that is.

I forgot that is mostly about Charles.

I spilled spot remover on my dog... now he's gone.

by Tarkus on Dec 8, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I forgot that this is mostly about Charles.

I spilled spot remover on my dog... now he's gone.

by Tarkus on Dec 8, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

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