Odds On NFL Playoff Scenarios: Jets-Chiefs Favored Matchup

KANSAS CITY MO - OCTOBER 24: Quarterback Matt Cassel #7 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after passing to Dwayne Bowe #82 for a touchdown during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on October 24 2010 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

We've been touching on various Kansas City Chiefs playoff scenarios since Sunday's win over the Titans, with the New York Jets as the most likely opponent based on our analysis. Now, courtesy of NFL Forecast, we're able to put some actual numbers behind that reasoning of what the AFC playoff picture will look like. 

The gurus at NFL Forecast used their fancy software combined with Team Efficiency ratings from Advanced NFL Stats to predict who will play who in the AFC playoff wildcard round. Here's how the odds break down according to NFL Forecast:

  • New York Jets at Kansas City: 71%
  • Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis: 54%
  • New York Jets at Indianapolis: 27%
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City: 17%
  • Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City: 12%
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis: 10%

Jacksonville playing anyone is negligible at this point. So, instead of having to remember if this team wins and this team loses or ties, and then this team wins....Just remember it's about a 71% chance that the Kansas City Chiefs will play the New York Jets in the first round of the AFC playoffs. 

To check out the specific who needs to beat who in Week 17, check out Joel's post from yesterday. 

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