FanPost

What Really Makes a Franchise Quarterback?

The question in Kansas City is this: Is Matt Cassel a franchise quarterback in the making? Is he the one to lead this city to Superbowl glory? Is he a durable machine of a player who can throw a team on his back and sling the ball to victories? Is he the one that flat out makes other players better? A definitive answer cannot be provided yet, but by analyzing statistics and probabilites, we can compare him to one well known "franchise quarterback". More after the jump.

 

I'm going to take Matt Cassel's career numbers and simulate them for a career similar in length to Montana. This includes every statistic, with real factors such as injuries.


Joe Montana's Numbers: 192 games played, 5391 attempts, 3409 completions, 63.2 completion percentage, 40,551 yards, 271 td's, 139 Int's, 92.3 qb rating.

Matt Cassel's Numbers to date: 39 games started, 1,315 attempts, 778 completions, 59.1 completion percentage, 8,751 yards, 55 td's, 33 Int's, 82.6 qb rating.

 

It is obvious that Cassel's stats have improved this season, as he's already eclipsed his td total of 2009 and his int total is 1/4 of what it was in 2009. He stands at 16 td's, 4 int's in 2010, along with 267 attempts, 158 completions. To simulate his numbers for this season, I multiplied his averages per game by the number of games in the season (excluding playoffs).

That calculation shows that Cassel is on pace for these stats: 29 td's, 7 int's, 340 attempts, 224 completions, and a completion rating of 65.8%.

Now, with that said, I'm going to make my second of three calculations, which is going to simulate Cassel's career numbers, giving that he'll play to the age that Joe Montana played, which is 38 years young. That gives Cassel 10 more years in the league. I'm going to insert a few stats into his simulation: 3 superbowl runs and 10 extra td's and 10 extra interceptions, for the sake of up and down years. Numbers are not consistent, to simulate their inconsistency, we must add the extra +10 +10.

I took the amount of td's Cassel had in his three starting seasons (including my 2010 simulation) and that puts him at 66 td's, which is an average of 22 td's a season. Then I multiply his numbers for another 10 years and I get that Cassel will have the following statistics when he retires: 220 td's, 110 int's. Including 3 superbowl runs and the 10 extra int's and td's, he will have 249 td's, 130 int's. His attempts are averaged out at 500 per year, listing him at 5,220 attempts per year (plus 3 superbowl run seasons), and 3,210 completions. That makes his completion percentage 61.4%.

Now compare.

Joe Montana's Numbers: 192 games played, 5391 attempts, 3409 completions, 63.2 completion percentage, 40,551 yards, 271 td's, 139 Int's, 92.3 qb rating.

Matt Cassel's Numbers: 199 games played, 5,220 attempts, 3,210 completions, 61.4% completion percentage, 31,000 yards, 249 td's, 130 int's, 91.0 qb rating.

Now, before you question me, let me analyze. Cassel may not have 3 superbowl runs, these numbers won't be exact, but if he plays to an average of 22 td's and 12.2 int's per season for 10 years, his numbers will look somewhat like Montana's, who is widely considered the ultimate franchise quarterback.

One more thing I'm going to analyze is Matt Cassel's probability of throwing an Interception per pass. To do this, we take the average number of passes attempted per game, which is 36.2, subtracted by the number of average completions per game which is 20.1, we have 16.1 either incomplete passes or interceptions. With this, we can say that Matt Cassel has about 46% chance of throwing one pick a game. With that even more analyzed, of the 16.1 incomplete passes he throws per game, his chance of throwing a pick per pass is 6%.

By noting these stats, we cannot determine if Matt Cassel is a franchise quarterback. But we can tell that his numbers thus far are solid, and he is still improving. The stats I have calculated do not include improvement, just a steady rate. Can Cassel become a quarterback like Montana? None of us know.

But one thing we do know is that Cassel is being limited by the gameplan, not getting the chance to develop rthym. Giving Cassel more attempts per game is something that the coaches should look into, because Cassel's already proved that he can throw the ball, and the Denver game shows he can protect it. The number one characeristic of a franchise quarterback is the ability to throw the ball all around and protect it .To end the "Cassel: Franchise quarterback?" debate, we need to loosen the collar on him and let him play some football, starting this weekend vs. the Arizona Cardinals.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Arrowhead Pride

You must be a member of Arrowhead Pride to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arrowhead Pride. You should read them.

Join Arrowhead Pride

You must be a member of Arrowhead Pride to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arrowhead Pride. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker