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You don't want to face Peyton Manning after he loses
This seems to be a piece of conventional wisdom that continues to get passed along on message boards and in analysis of the upcoming game this week. Apparently the Chiefs should have been praying for the Jaguars to shank their long kick at the end of the game, because now there's no chance that the Chiefs could possibly sneak passed a Colts team that has renewed focus, right?
Even a brief glimpse at the Colt's schedule since 2004 will show you that this isn't the case. Every year they have given up back to back games once that season. And only in 2009 were those two games the last two games of the season when they had all conceded those games to rest their starters. Even with that the question of whether it is better to face the Colts after a win or a loss remains. They are a team that hasn't lost more than 4 games in a season in a very long time, so the funks that they do find themselves in tend to be VERY short-lived.
So I did the bare minimum of research in order to put together the average margin victory for the Colts after a win and a loss over the last few seasons. 2009 will obviously be skewed due to the lack of losses, but I included it just as an example of how extremely well focused these Colts teams have been even after stringing together win after win.
2009 -
Margin after a win = 7.875 points
Margin after a loss = -8 points
2008 -
Margin after a win = 7.4167 points
Margin after a loss = 0 points
2007 -
Margin after a win = 12 points
Margin after a loss = -1 points
2006 -
Margin after a win = 5.4375 points
Margin after a loss = 5 points
To me at least, it looks like catching the Colts after a loss is the best situation to be in.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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It worked for the Texans in the opener.
Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced, so he's really not a part of his family.
I have to wonder though what the situation was in those back to back losses.
I believe that some if not all would be at the end of the season after they rested some of their starters like last season. If not for that they would not have lost back to back games. Last season after Painter came in they lost two games. So did the Saints without Brees.
Still I think we should win this game right now. But I am just wondering if those stats are valid or not based on the time of the season they occurred in.
Actually Kray
Those back to back losses are dispersed throughout the seasons…no rhyme or reason as you suggest might be the case.
"You gonna pull them pistols...or whistle Dixie?"
I did mention in the fanpost
that 2009 was the only year where the back to back losses came at the end of the season with nothing to play for.
Ive been saying for a couple of years now...
that the idea of clutch and momentum is an illusion. Its going to be pretty hard for Peyton to work any harder than he does. Good teams win football games, and good teams rarely lose back to back games. But if history repeats itself the Colts won’t even make the playoffs, which means they will need to lose at least 5 or 6 more games anyway
broken sun clocks a dog's ass every twice and again --- Crooow
Well somebody on AP researched records in the NFL after the bye.
Suprisingly it is only like a 52% but I forgot who posted it.
Chiefs start 4-0. Yes the colts lose to us.
Cassel will be our QBotF. The hate needs to stop NOW
Motivation is a fire from within, if someone else lights it, chances are it will burn briefly
I tossed a coin yesterday and it was heads
so tomorrow it must be tails
Blame my wife!
Waiting until August 2011
and it WILL be ...
… unless it isn’t
(gotta love stats and probabilities)
Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award (I'd like to thank my producer, my director, all of my wonderful fans ... )
"I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
"It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
Come back, Jason!
hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!
troll
2010 predictions live by em die by em
- Chiefs do what they did last year and double their win total.. Good for a second place finish in the AFC West
-McCluster is considered for ROY, doesn't win it
- Arenas takes two to the house
- Carr becomes a legitimate corner
-Flowers gets jipped in Pro Bowl voting
I think "what they did last week" is so overrated
The reason they so often win after they lose is because they havent much at all. theyve generally only lost 3 or so times most seasons. They look like a team who has some vulnerability however at the end of the day they have Peyton. It should be interesting but this is a different team than any other of those so I dont think the “look out Peyton is angry” makes any difference. That guy is going to be ready to play.
I do like how Romeo and charlie as a tandem have faired awfully well against this guy though.
Interesting
Like everybody else, I’m skeptical of putting too much stock in streaks, and this is really a small sample size, but it’s still interesting.
Consider that a team will typically perform below their average in a game after a win and perform above their average in a game after a loss, purely for mathematical reasons. (Because, in the latter case, you’re excluding a bad result in your analysis, so it will be more likely to look better). That being the case, it’s telling that they overcome this mathematical barrier to do worse after a loss.
by wustl_chiefs_fan on Oct 4, 2010 6:57 PM CDT reply actions
I really don't think that these stats MEAN anything will happen
Just that the people who immediately think that the Chiefs would have been BETTER off had the Colts won against the Jaguars are throwing things out without anything to base it off of.
No one is mentioning one fact
Tony Dungy is not the Head Coach anymore.
He will lead us from the Wilderness and then fade away when we are in the Promised Land.
They lost on grass
Have won on their home turf. Their defense is built to play on that turf, it allows the smaller faster lb’s and de’s to really fly around. How well their de’s play will go a long way to know how we are going to fair against them.
Cassel out, Andrew Luck in!
Facing Manning after a loss is good
Why would we be afraid to face Peyton Manning after a loss? Why did he wait in those
other games to get angry enough for a comeback? (IS HE GONNA GET LIKE DAVID
BANNER AND CHANGE INTO THE HULK LOL!) I believe that it will have the opposite
effect when he realizes that his passing alone will not be enough to take out the Chiefs.
GOOOO! CHIEFS!!!
I think you mean....
Eric Bana. It was Eric Bana whom played the hulk. David Banner is a rapper and small time film actor.
NO.
DAVID BANNER WAS THE NAME OF THE CHARACTER WHO TURNS INTO THE HULK (MORE COMMONLY KNOWN AS BRUCE BANNER) WHEN HE WAS PLAYED BY BILL BIXBY ON THE INCREDIBLE HULK TELEVISION SHOW IN THE 1970S.
THE RAPPER YOU REFER TO IS NAMED LAVELL CRUMP AND HE GOES BY DAVID BANNER AS A TRIBUTE TO THAT CHARACTER.
Thanks for the fact-check, Jayrod
Nice to find out what the facts are surrounding myths. I like the way you didn’t draw any almighty conclusions from this other than – if history is any guide, the Colts do better after winning the previous game. (I still get a chuckle out of sir eccles’ stat slap-down, though.)
I’m wondering how the mental game will play out on Sunday. I’m sure the Chiefs will be prepared, but I’m wondering if they will be spirited and confident. Sometimes when nastiness is called out – Shuan’s fine – it can drop the overall energy. Like a dog with its tail between its legs. Hopefully, Shaun will just be able to stop any alleged below the belt antics and still keep the high intensity level along with the rest of the D line. Plus we have the bye week variable, as it relates to keeping up the intensity.
I’m also hoping that the subliminal Chiefs Will during training camp pays off this week. Do they believe in themselves enough that when the going gets tough, they have the confidence to overcome and conquer? If the Colts get down, they seem ready to semi-implode and start picking at one another. Peyton’s comments have overtones of “other people” needing to be more focused at practice. It’s not exactly pointing fingers, but it doesn’t seem like it will take much to make their sidelines ugly this Sunday. I’m hoping the Chiefs win the mental game this Sunday, which leads to a superior physical game, which leads to a win! Go Chiefs!
It's always funny to hear the "experts"
throw around phrases like “you don’t want to face Peyton Manning after he loses.” Hey, it’s kind of like saying “You know Pioli doesn’t draft safeties that high, he’ll definitely pick NT.”
I have no doubt that Peyton Manning plans and practices to the extreme at all times, no matter what happened the week prior. I don’t think it’s possible to prepare any more than he already does.
Chiefs Will

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