This seems to be a piece of conventional wisdom that continues to get passed along on message boards and in analysis of the upcoming game this week. Apparently the Chiefs should have been praying for the Jaguars to shank their long kick at the end of the game, because now there's no chance that the Chiefs could possibly sneak passed a Colts team that has renewed focus, right?
Even a brief glimpse at the Colt's schedule since 2004 will show you that this isn't the case. Every year they have given up back to back games once that season. And only in 2009 were those two games the last two games of the season when they had all conceded those games to rest their starters. Even with that the question of whether it is better to face the Colts after a win or a loss remains. They are a team that hasn't lost more than 4 games in a season in a very long time, so the funks that they do find themselves in tend to be VERY short-lived.
So I did the bare minimum of research in order to put together the average margin victory for the Colts after a win and a loss over the last few seasons. 2009 will obviously be skewed due to the lack of losses, but I included it just as an example of how extremely well focused these Colts teams have been even after stringing together win after win.
Margin after a win = 7.875 points
Margin after a loss = -8 points
Margin after a win = 7.4167 points
Margin after a loss = 0 points
Margin after a win = 12 points
Margin after a loss = -1 points
Margin after a win = 5.4375 points
Margin after a loss = 5 points
To me at least, it looks like catching the Colts after a loss is the best situation to be in.