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Four weeks into the NFL season, the phrase “any given Sunday” has gained considerable significance.  I’d like to think that this year’s group of sub-par officials must have something to do with some of the weird wins this season (actually I’m convinced of it in the case of Denver vs Tennessee), but something else is happening, too.  Formerly losing teams are finding new ways to win.  If this keeps up, even Detroit may have an 8-8 season.

One surprising wrinkle in this new trend is the fate of the Colts.  I can’t remember the last time they started off 2-2, and losing to two division rivals has suddenly made Peyton Manning look a lot more vulnerable than he has in years.  After watching (as much as I could) the games in Jacksonville and Oakland today, I’m feeling pretty good about the Chiefs’ chances of starting their season 5-0.  Both the Colts and Texans provided legible blueprints for beating them today.  The Texans were just lucky they were playing the more self-destructive team.

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I can’t really take anything away from the Jaguars today.  Their play was almost flawless when it had to be.  But even that would not have been enough if not for the lucky breaks they got (most notably the dropped interception that would have, at least, sent the game to OT).  However, their emphasis on their running game—including the QB option run that was so effective—shortened Manning’s time to score and kept him in a hurry-up mode.  Once again, Peyton’s dirty little secret was exposed:  He is not nearly as good, and is much more prone to make mistakes when he faces constant pressure. 

Personally, I think our defense is better than the Jags, even with our rookie safeties.  I also think we are better at bumping receivers off the line, which is very effective in disrupting the timing-dependent passing game of Indy.  It remains to be seen whether Cassel can be as effective as Garrard was today, but the Colts defense has certainly provided lots of opportunities for opposing defenses over the past four games, and there is no reason to expect they will drastically improve in the next week.  So the basic formula for beating the Colts is: 1) pressure Manning as much as possible, 2) hit receivers off the line to disrupt timing, 3) limit Colts TOP by running the ball against them consistently and 4) win the turnover battle.  Tall orders, but based on what we have seen from the Chiefs so far this year—very possible.

The formula for beating the Texans is not much different.  With Andre Johnson ailing, their passing game has declined.  They are having their best success on the ground and with short passes.  Our defense showed what it can do against a West Coast type offense last week against SF.  I think we can do it again. 

So, forty year fan and homer that I am, I think our chances of getting by both Indy and Houston are very good.  Now you can all tell me why I am wrong.