FanPost

KC Chiefs Kool Aid: The Next Five Games

 

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What a difference a year makes!  Last year at this time the Chiefs had just won their first game of the season, bringing their record to 1-5.  People were down on Haley, down on Pioli, down on our outlook, etc.  Now, despite two consecutive loses, Chiefs mania is running wild.  There are so many people excited about this team and so many new posters bringing quality posts, stats, and comments to the site that I've started to question if I even need to do any more Kool Aid posts.  You don't need me to break down why you should be excited about our team this week and that we have a great shot against a Jaguars team that may be using its 3rd string QB.  You don't need anyone else to tell you that we have a great running game, the pass protection has been fantastic, or that Brandon Flowers is a beast of a CB.

I have to tell you AP, you're making me work pretty hard to come up with a fresh new batch of Kool Aid at this point.

So I sat down this week and looked at our schedule the rest of the way.  I looked at several of the stats and the records of our upcoming opponents and found some interesting numbers.  The next five games really jumped out at me as games the Chiefs can and should win.  So that's what I'm serving up this week.  More after the jump.



Let me start with what information I looked at.  For each team on our schedule I looked at their record, their record at home/on the road (depending on where the game is played), their points scored, passing offense, rushing offense, points allowed, passing defense, and rushing defense.  To get some perspective let's first look at the records and rankings for the five teams we have played so far.

Record Split Scoring Passing Rushing Def. PPG Pass Def Run Def
SD 2-4 0-4 5th 1st 13th 19th 1st 6th
at Clv 1-5 1-2 31st 20th 22nd 17th 21st 23rd
SF 1-5 0-3 30th 15th 28th 24th 11th 20th
at Ind 4-2 2-0 2nd 2nd 24th 18th 14th 27th
at Hou 4-2 2-2 6th 11th 4th 30th 32nd 12th
40% 31.30% 14.8 9.8 18.2 21.6 15.8 17.6

So at a glance, the overall winning percentage isn't very impressive and if you look at the home/road split record, it's really low.  We did face some high powered offenses but the defenses have been pretty average.

Now let's take a look at our next five games.

Record Split Scoring Passing Rushing Def. PPG Pass Def Run Def
Jax 3-3 1-1 23rd 26th 6th 31st 28th 19th
Buf 0-5 0-2 26th 31st 16th 32nd 10th 32nd
at Oak 2-4 2-1 18th 23rd 10th 28th 8th 30th
at Den 2-4 1-2 15th 3rd 32nd 26th 15th 25th
Arz 3-2 1-2 25th 30th 29th 29th 26th 29th
35.70% 38.50% 21.4 22.6 18.6 29.2 17.4 27

So the overall winning percentage is worse and even though the home/road split record is a little better it is still below 40%.  Here's what jumps out at me.  Offensively speaking, none of these teams are as good as SD, Indy, and Houston that we faced in the first 5 games.  Also, and probably more important, none of the offenses are balanced.  Jax, Buf, and Oak all rely on the run, Den on the pass, and Arz.................?  Romeo has shown that if a team is one dimensional he will take that away and force you to beat him with something else.  I think that is why the Texans racked up points on us, we couldn't just focus on the run or pass because they do both well.  It looks like that won't be a problem in the next five games.

Defensively, the next five games are all against teams ranked 26th or lower in points allowed.  That's great in and of itself, but when you factor in that they are especially bad against the run (our offensive strength) it sets up very nicely for the Chiefs.

So your glass of Kool Aid for this week is that I believe our Kansas City Chiefs are about to go on a roll.  Anything can happen in the NFL, so we could certainly lose to any one of those teams.  However, this seems to be a hard working and well coached team and those are the kind of teams that usually take care of business.

This week's Kool Aid also comes with a bit of a warning.  If we don't win at least 4 of the 5 next games we may be in for a dog fight down the stretch for the division title.  Take a look at the next 5 games that come after the Arizona game.

Record Split Scoring Passing Rushing Def. PPG Pass Def Run Def
at Sea 3-2 2-0 19th 19th 30th 12th 30th 2nd
Den 2-4 1-2 15th 3rd 32nd 26th 15th 25th
at SD 2-4 2-0 5th 1st 13th 19th 1st 6th
at StL 3-3 3-1 28th 19th 17th 11th 20th 14th
Ten 4-2 3-0 3rd 29th 3rd 4th 23rd 8th
48.30% 78.60% 14 14.2 19 14.4 17.8 11

This group already has the highest winning percentage, but when you look at the winning percentage in the home/road column you see we are playing these teams where they have been really good so far this year.  The defenses in this stretch are the best statistically of the three groups, especially the run defenses.  If we allow someone to make up ground on us during the next five games it will be hard to hold our lead during this stretch.

Now because I broke it down in groups of five, the last game (home vs Oak) isn't listed, but their numbers are already included above, and that game should be a win.

We have a real chance to put this division away over the next five weeks.  During that span, here is who our division rivals face.

Oakland:  @Den, Sea, KC, bye, @Pit

My take:  Oakland will be done by the end of this stretch.

San Diego:  NE, Ten, @Hou, bye, Den

My take:  The best case scenario for KC would be for them to lose at least 2 of those first 3 and then beat Denver.

Denver:  Oak, @SF, bye, KC, @SD

My take:  Denver should beat Oak and SF, making the KC game in Denver huge.  If we beat Denver and they lose to the Chargers, the division will be all but ours with KC holding a 4 game lead with 6 weeks left to go in the season.

The best part is, none of this is that far fetched.  I know I'm probably drinking the Red and Gold Kool Aid as usual, but I don't think I'm drunk on the stuff.  What are your thoughts?  Are the Chiefs about to go on a roll and put this division away?  Have I had WAY too much Kool Aid?  I'd love to hear what you think.

 

PORKCHOP OUT

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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