So let me start by saying sorry that this week's installment is a little late. All I can tell you is that there is no Kool Aid for workplace internet filters. So not only have I not had a lot of AP access, but I wasn't in a very "Kool Aid" frame of mind for most of the week. So given my sour mood and the fact that one of my only online football resources between 7am and 5pm is NFL.com, this week's post will focus on some statistical data that I think shows that the Chiefs have a good chance to go get a win at Houston this weekend. I'll also explain why I think the run game was more to blame for the Indy loss then Matt Cassel (SAY WHAT?!?!). So here we go, a very grumpy porkchop's week 6 glass of Chiefs Kool Aid.
Let me start with a little sip of how good our defense is playing Kool Aid. Last year after 4 games we were 0-4 and had been outscored 112-64. That equals out to our defense at this point last year giving up 28 points per game (and one of those four was against the Jamarcus Russell led Raiders). Four games into the 2010 season and our defense is giving up just 14.25 points/game. So we have literally cut our points allowed in half from where we were last year despite playing two high powered offenses in Indy and San Diego. That tastes pretty good.
Okay, now let me get my Matt Cassel position out of the way. Here's my stance, we are suppose to be a running football team. I understand that Cassel has to move the ball down the field in order to keep the defense from stacking the box. I get it, I do. However, if you want to go into Indy and win a pound it out, control the clock, defensive game you have to do better then 27 carries for 113 yards and no TDs. If you are in a shoot out with Manning and only running the ball to mix things up then those are fine numbers, but if your offense is built on the run then those numbers aren't good enough to beat a Super Bowl contender on the road. In the SF game the running backs consistently put Cassel in easy to convert third down situations and I would argue that after that first drive the running game just wasn't good enough to pull the upset. I'll give you that 16/29 for 156 yards and 0 TDs and 0 Ints is not good enough to beat a Super Bowl contender. However, if Bowe catches that well thrown ball in the end zone and the rest of Cassel's game after that drive finishes the same he would of ended up 17/27 for 186 yards and a TD (one more completion and minus the two incomplete passes right after the dropped TD). That's a 63% completion percentage and 6.9 yards per attempt. Tell me you wouldn't of taken that before the game if someone had offered it to you. We all thought our run game would roll for 150+ yards given our rushing stats and their run defense this year. Cassel hasn't been good so far this year. That's true, but our game plan is not to put the game on Cassel and have him win it for us. I stand by the fact that Cassel did just enough to make a win possible in Indy, but he needed a great run game and all he got was average.
I've been pretty serious so far, so in order to make sure this Kool Aid post keeps you feeling good here's a goofy picture of Phillis Rivers.
Okay, now onto some statistical data that supports the idea that winning in Houston should be much more possible then winning in Indy. I went back and looked at both Indy and Houston's home games prior to playing the Chiefs dating back through last season. I threw out Indy's game versus the Jets at the end of the season when they rested all their best players. That gave Indy 10 games (7 regular season last year, two playoff games, and the one game prior to the Chiefs game this season) and Houston 11 games (8 regular season games last year and 3 already this season). I understand this isn't a huge sample size, but if you go back much further then you're really looking at different teams then what KC will face on the field this year. Here's a chart that shows what I found.
|Record||10 and 0||5 and 6|
|Avg. Points Scored||26.4||23|
|Avg. Passing Yards||301.4||250.5|
|Avg. Passing TDs||2.1||1.5|
|Avg. Rushing Yards||85.6||106.5|
|Avg. Rushing TDs||0.8||0.8|
|Avg. Points Allowed||16.1||23.3|
|Avg. Pass Yrds Allw.||238.8||238.8|
|Avg. Pass TDs Allw.||1.4||1.5|
|Avg. Rush Yrds Allw.||100||110.8|
|Avg. Rush TDs Allw.||0.5||1.1|
So if you combine last season and this season Houston has a total record of 12-9. However, they actually have a losing record at home over that span (5-6). They score 3 less points then the Colts, but allow a TD more per game than Indy. Despite Schaub's fantastic overall numbers over the last year+ his numbers at home in that span haven't been in Peyton's league. Finally, despite all the negative we've heard about Indy's run defense and the good things we hear about Houston's the Colts have actually given up less rushing yards per game at home then the Texans.
Here's the magic stat I found that all Chief fans should pay attention to. In the 11 home games the Texans have had over the last two seasons they have allowed the other team to rush for over 100 yards six times. They are 0-6 in those games. The flip side of that is that they are 5-0 when they hold their opponent to under 100 yards rushing at home. So it's simple, if we run the ball well we should win, but if they stop the run we'll lose.
I like how this sets up for the Chiefs. This shows that the key to going into Houston and coming out with a win is playing good defense and running the ball. Works for me. Sure sounds better then "hope your QB can outscore them in a shoot out". Also keep in mind that we were able to hold Indy to 7 points under their average, 57 yards under their passing average, 2 passing TDs under their average, etc. So that's your week 6 glass of Kool Aid. The defense is awesome, we can win with Matt Cassel, and the Chiefs have a real shot to go to 4-1 this week.
Again, a lot of stats and numbers this week and not a lot of "happy juice". So for those of you that only read these posts for a simple "pick me up" here you go.
or how about...........
and just in case I didn't mention it, work internet filters suck.