Apologize? For What? Bumping Into The Ceiling?

From the FanPosts. This is an excellent read. Glad to have another viewpoint of Matt Cassel. -Joel

I lost my way Chiefs fans.  I got so caught up in the minutae of all the micro-managing that goes on here at AP, that I forgot my purpose.  More specifically, the Chiefs purpose.  I allowed all the name calling, catter-walling, ranting, raving posters to Shaun Smith me.  After only 5 weeks of the 2010 season, I fell victim to worrying about my own junk more than I was worrying about the Chiefs staying on the path.  My own inability to stay focused (MY Dwayne Bowe if you will) caused me to feel lost. 

"Why is Matt Cassel not the guy?"  I opined.  "What in the hell is the matter with Bowe?  He makes circus catches one week only to drop the stuff that hits him right in the hands the next?"I fumed.  "Where was the magic of the Weis offensive play calling?" I cried.  Right when I was sitting down there in dirt, feeling so low that I could play handball on the curb, I did the only thing that was left to do.  I started over.  Once the clouds were blown away and the camoflage removed I felt invigorated.  You know why?  I realized that the Chiefs haven't lost their way.  Far from it.  They are on the path, straight and true as ever.  Pioli, Haley, Weis and Crennel haven't strayed a step and they have the team with them.  The proof lies in the plan.  I shall elucidate. 

The Beginning.  When, exactly, did the Chiefs current journey begin?  I would argue that it began in 2001 in New England.  That was when Scott Pioli, Bill Belechick, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel began development of their version of football success.  Ultimately, it was embodied in the New England Patriots.

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The image above is commonly referred to as a defense.  This is the one that Romeo took over back in the day.  Early in the process they garnered the descriptors newer, fresher and faster.  Some would use those same words to describe our beloved Chiefs defense this year.  They had several (at the time) relatively unknown players, many of whom would go on to become well known to say the least.  Regardless of the fact that they were young and inexperienced in the NFL, they listened to Romeo, played hard and kicked ass.  

My crystal ball indicates that there is another version of this story unfolding in KC.  With each game played, our defense seems to grab just a bit higher on the rope and pull themselves up another notch.  They just went into the defending AFC champion Indianapolis Colts HOUSE and denied Mr. Football a passing Touchdown.  Just how many squads will do that this year?  All will try, but how many will succeed? 

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These guys and some of their closest friends DID it.  Mr. Football even said that the Chiefs weren't giving up anything (If I may paraphrase).  This group has succeeded beyond expectations--or have they?  It depends on who you ask.

I'll bet Romeo wouldn't say that they have performed beyond expectations.  Let's compare '01 Pats vs '10 Chiefs D.

'01 Pats for entire season:  Defense gave up 334.5 ypg total, 200 ypg passing and 135 ypg rushing and 17 pts per game.

'10 Chiefs thru 4 games:  Defense gave up 320 ypg total, 240 ypg passing and 81 ypg rushing and 14.25 pts per game. 

It would appear that the defense is on the path.  In fact, they are slightly ahead of what the '01 Pats did.  Don't forget now, we are talking about a Super Bowl winning year vs these Chiefs having already played the likes of Phyllis Rivers and Mr. Football?!  And we have given up LESS points per game so far?!  That is scary good my friends.  Does anyone beside me think this is significant? 

Well butter my butt and call me a biscuit.  Maybe things aren't as bleak as a lot of the banter here on AP would suggest.  We are 3-1 after all.  Our schedule looks to be in our favor, especially with our defense seemingly getting ready to shift into third gear.

What's that?  It's not the defense that is the problem?  Oh.  You say it's that incompetant QB #7 (we all know who is disrespecting Matt Cassel in this fashion) that is the main problem?  In addition, throw in that lousy DBowe as well.  I gotta tell ya, I was hoping you would say that.

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 That would bring us to this guy.  Sir Thomas Brady.  Let's see what kind of numbers Brady had in that Superbowl winning season.  Brady only got to play in 15 regular season games that year becasue Drew Bledsoe started the year as starter and went down in the second game of the season.  I think that is close enough to a full season for comparison so let's get on with it.

In 2001 Tom Brady went 264/413 for 2843 yds and a 63.9% completion rate, 18 TDs, 12 Ints.  He finished the season with an 86.5 rating and averaged 27.5 attempts per game.  That is an average passing yards per game of 189.5.  Twice that year Brady was held to under 100 yds passing.

FF to 2010.  Matt Cassel in four games this season as gone 58/106 for 650 yds and a 54.7% completion rate, 4 TDs, 3 Ints.  He currently has a 74 rating and is averaging 26.6 attempts per game.  That is an average passing yards per game of 162.5.   So far this year Cassel has been held to under 100 yds passing only once.

If you extrapolate Cassel's numbers for the season wihout improvement he would go 232/424 for 2600 yds, 16 TDs and 12 ints.  Does anybody but me see a game plan here?  Do you think that Cassel is being put into a preprogrammed plan that says so many passes vs so many rushes per game?  The similarity cannot be coincidence with so many of the same puppet masters controlling the strings.  Even if Cassel is underperforming, the '01 Pats WON a Super Bowl with similar numbers.  I would bet that Cassel finishes the year with similar numbers to Brady's from '01.  I hope that they are better numbers but if Super Bowl winning numbers is all we can get, well, I'll take it.

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Isn't it just possible that Cassel is doing what he is expected to do?  If you listen to Coach Haley's presser from Monday it sure sounds like it to me.  This wouldn't be the first time that the coaches knew what they were talking about better than the fans either.  Examples?  Dorsey and TJax were not busts after all were they?  Pioli's 2010 draft class was not a mistake was it? 

If that is the case, then all the detractors need to quiet down and get used to this kind of offensive performance because it is designed to be like it is.  This is the baseline of what you will see this season.  Yes, there will be a few games where Cassel will have 200--300 yds passing but they will be few and far between.  Brady only had one outing in 2001 that went for more than 300 yds and that was for 345 against the Chargers.  The Pats scored 29 points in that game and it was their third highest total of the season.  Interestingly, the Pats beat the Colts that year in their highest scoring affair.  The Pats scored 44 points but Brady only threw for 159 and no TDs.  Antowain Smith ran for two scores, Kevin Faulk ran for one, the Defense had two pick six INTS and Viniteri had 3 FGs.  Not very impressive stats from that offense.  Sounds an awful lot like the offense that we have been seeing from the Chiefs this year doesn't it?  You are what your record says you are, even if all those wins were uglier than pigs in slop.

Oh, and this guy?

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Well, let's just say that Mr. Bowe is not as far off his programming as I might have thought either.

The 2001 Patriots team had one primary receiver in Troy Brown.  He was supported by David Patten and Terry Glenn.  Glenn only played in 4 games that year so I will compare Bowe to the other two.

Troy Brown played in 16 games and had 101 recpts for 1199 yds and 5 TDs.

David Patten played in 16 games and had 51 recpts for 749 yds and 4 TDs.

Dwayne Bowe has played four games and has 9 recpts for 152 yds and 1 TD.

If you extrapolate Bowe's numbers (and assume no improvement), he will have 36 recpts for 608 yds and 4 TDs.

He sounds a lot more like Patten than Brown at this point.  Once again, we seem to be looking for that legit #1 receiver.  Still, Bowe is relatively close to the seconday receiver that played on that '01 Patriots team.  If Bowe does improve to Troy Brown kind of numbers, what will that say about Mr. Cassel?  Uh-oh, we only have 12 games left to find out!

I don't know about you, but once again I can see the future by looking backward.  This is not this coaching staffs first rodeo.  Nor is it the first time around for a few guys like Vrabel, Waters, Jones, Pope, Copper, Lilja and McGraw. 

I will have to say that there are two descriptors used frequently here on AP that I really don't like.  Haters and Apologists.  Anytime somebody states their opinion in a negative way about a player, it does not mean that person is a hater.  It would be nice, however, if that person would support their comments with something more than expletives about a particular players abilities or worse, their (lack of) intelligence.  That would give you some cred in the eyes of Chiefs nation.

Apologists?  Anytime someone expresses a belief in an as yet unsubstantiated players ability in a positive fashion it doesn't mean that person is an apologist.  To apologize is to acknowledge faults or shortcomings.  I have said that I think Matt Cassel can, should and will play better.  That is expressing belief.  I hope that this post and the information contained in it may give you reason to believe that Matt Cassel is doing exactly what he is being called on to do.  Just as Tom Brady did 10 years ago. 

Cassel has a ceiling just like any other player in the NFL.  In order to get better you have to bump into that ceiling now and then.  I think that is what you saw in the Colts game.  In the same fashion, you will most likely see some games this year where Cassel looks very competant.  The only way to get better is to eventually break through that ceiling by bumping up against it.  Over and over and bloody over again.  Last year was Cassel's turn at being held down by an underperforming offensive line.  This year is Cassel finally learning what it means to truly lead a team that you have helped build from the ground up, just like Tom Brady did 10 years ago.  That is what Haley means when he says he wants to see Cassel get mad.  Cassel should get mad when another players lack of concentration keeps the team from achieving it's goal.  After all, that goal is Cassel's too.

Believeing in Cassel breaking through that ceiling doesn't make me an apologist.  Sometimes trying to support a theory is a difficult thing.  I believe that Cassel will eventually break through that ceiling by bumping up against it--hard.  It may take the rest of this year for that to really take hold.  That belief is something I won't apologize for. 

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