FanPost

The Fallacy of QB ratings


I know I made another Fanpost...but I thought it is worth discussion and merit to point out and suggest we discuss passer ratings as we tend to be judging the QBs.  This is the nice formula for NFL rating...

The calculation of the NFL quarterback rating involves more steps than the NCAA formula. In order to establish a maximum value for an NFL player's passer rating, a separate calculation needs to be completed involving each of the following four categories: Completion Percentage, Average Yards Per Attempt, Percentage of Touchdown Passes, and Percentage of Interceptions. If the result in any category is less than 0, the given result should be 0. If the result in any category is greater than 2.375, the given result should be 2.375. This makes the maximum possible quarterback rating for the NFL 158.3. A perfect rating requires at least a 77.5% completion rate, at least 12.5 yards per attempt, a touchdown on at least 11.875% of attempts, and no interceptions.

a = \left  ({COMP \over ATT} - .3 \right ) \times 5

b = \left ({YARDS \over ATT} - 3 \right ) \times .25

c = \left ({TD \over ATT} \right ) \times 20

d = 2.375 - \left ({INT \over ATT} \times 25 \right )

Then use the above calculations to complete the passer rating:

Passer Rating_{NFL} = \left ({(max(min(a,2.375),0) + max(min(b,2.375),0) + max(min(c,2.375),0) + max(min(d,2.375),0) \over 6} \right ) \times 100


NOW THE FALLACY OF USING THIS TO JUDGE AND COMPARE QBS...

A short passing game strategy leads to a lower passer rating for factor B.  A running game with less passing attempts is going to tend to lower your passer rating for factor C.  So for team using a short passing scheme and more running, you really need to look at your A and D factors....which really enumerates to BALL CONTROL.  No interceptions good, completions good.  But with fewer passes being thrown, your completion average is really not a good comparison of ability...if you throw five passes and compare to if you throw 100.  Which is going to really show a better percentage reflection of your skill?  And if we use the defense that running backs need more carries to get into their game, does not that also apply to quarterback.  Ball Control recognizes that your QB has less margin of error to succeed.  And your receivers have to catch their passes that are thrown into their hands.  It also means that you are going to have to convert more runs and passes to get down the field.

I'm writing this late and really can not do the post justice, but wanted to put this out there so folks can put their own calculator to work and really analyze our QB breakdown.  What if one more completion had been made that resulted in TD.  What effect would that have had on the passer rating?  What if you took out dropped passes that should have been obviously caught....if you saw a QB rating of near 100 would you be making excuses for the QB that not his fault?  And if you applied a similar formula to receivers and saw their numbers based on dropped passes, lower YAC, that were consistantly low would you then turn your attention more to their faults and not the QB?   Or would it be better to just sit back and enjoy the game, cuss when they lose, cheer when they win, and be happy that you have a team that is 3-1 and leading their division and despite that still trying to gel into a complete team, they are able to go toe-to-toe with the best of teams after not being able to look each other in the eye for last few years?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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